I’ve got some bad news for you…
Imo, Trump 2 has already done more than Trump 1. I am hopeful he will soon peter out and die, but the president matters less than the people he has to run things, and he has apparently found a number of loyal and capable monsters.
-Public opinion and the stock market will prevent some of his worst ideas from happening, we are already seeing that happen
The problem with public opinion is people already have their minds made up. He can’t turn people off by trying another coup, for example. We have already accepted sedition. Maybe we want him to be Hitler. Who knows?
Similarly, the problem the stock market is that it doesn’t have to drop when we start wars, commit crimes against humanity, or lose our democracy. Also, the market doesn’t quite respond to his decisions, since it assumes he will reverse them.
We really need the Law to stop him. But he’s not yet stupidly breaking laws. Instead he seems to be trying to trying to break the system itself. And compared to Jan 6th and the Big Lie, I think he has considerably better odds at wrecking the Constitution.
And oddly, I don’t honestly know where we will be if he wrecks the Constitution.
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Therein lies the problem.
When the market really starts pricing in Trump and his behavior being permanent…all bets are off.
The don’t call it the thundering herd for nothing. Capital will flee abroad.
“Rule of Law”…has to be separated into two parts. There is the civil laws..bill of rights and all. And then there is property law. The second is the larger slice.
Equity and debt markets are insensitive to civil rights. Trample away. But fart around with property/contract law and it’s goodnight Irene.
Trump and the Heritage Foundation are unlikely to do anything to jeopardize property rights.
I guess the real question is should we expect them to carry this on for 4 years or have we already seen most of their cards? They may be more loyal, but are they more competent?
What’s to stop them?
Republicans in Congress are spineless.
They’re ignoring court orders.
I believe there are two key premises in the pace of change:
- The powers-that-be want to overload and move faster than the ability of their opponents to react.
- The powers-that-be realize that the benefit of their trifecta erodes as vulnerable R’s start to ramp up campaigning for the midterms.
In theory, in a best-case scenario the pace of change will start to slow, and we should have only 12-14 more months before we hit a floor.
Unfortunately, considering that we’re only 2 months and change into Trump 2.0, 12-14 months is still a very long time, even if they are likely starting to slow.
So, to begin with, I think they already did the same major things he did last time, that is: reversing Biden orders, killing treaties and trade agreements, reducing military support, threatening allies, and borrowing around $4T.
Beyond that, they are experimenting with what they can get away with.
This includes:
Everything Doge, including mass layoffs, USAID, DOE
Ending birthright citizenship.
Controlling universities
Aggressively controlling press access
Redefining immigrants, protestors, gangs, terrorists, and wars so they are all the same thing.
Using that to remove due process and torture them in El Salvador
All unconstitutional, in some cases blatantly.
But will the SCOTUS say no?
If the SCOTUS says no, can he do it anyway since he controls the DOJ, FBI, etc.?
How long will it take anyone to stop him anyway?
In other words is there a chink in the armor of the Republic?
If he is completely stopped here-- then I think he will slow down. But if there is a vulnerability then I expect he will double down on those wins. If he gets away with ignoring one law, he will try ignoring the next law. If he gets away with locking up a protester, he will lock up all the protesters. Etc.
I also expect at least some more experimentation. I don’t know what might be. If I had to throw a guess, I think he might start a war, use a catastrophe, or simply provoke massive protests in order to excuse martial law, which will in turn be used to suspend the next election. But hopefully he he will get sick and die before then, and won’t have a willing/able heir to follow through.
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What do I tell you?
When Nixon stepped down, this regime was founded.
Corrupt or burn it down or both or both or both
Never let Them
Break the whip
Ease them into a balanced destiny.
God was bought and sold.
We are gods of men
An empty dance of electrons,
Filling lives with images of we.
Glorious we presentate in gold leaf guise
Believe, believe for nothing else you see
But we.
Eyes up or down, there is nothing else around.
And then all is we
And them bleed.
This is my thought.
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This is my concern.
I don’t see Americans trying to stop the war as it will be the people of another country that will be mostly killed and it will be perceived to be their own fault: lies will be used to justify the war.
We are not too concerned about casualties in other countries. However if we invaded Canada, for example, there would be retaliation on our own cities. Hopefully that would dissuade us from starting such an unjustified war.
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i’ll take the under on invading Canada y’all
Also the under on all or any of these things happening other than trying to provoke massive protests:
Of course I hope you win that bet.
Canadians would not put it past Trump to use military action. Just hope that no one is stupid enough to give him a reason.
I don’t agree with much of anything the administration has done on those things you listed, but I guess the back and forth on what can and cannot be done while things are tied up in the courts..for now it seems like the flights going to El Salvador have been stopped by the judge’s order.
That’s encouraging, and it may end up at SCOTUS where we don’t like the way they rule, but this is not full destruction of the constitution. It’s the culmination of decades of power consolidation that Republicans have been fighting for. It’s what the majority wants at that point.
Biden and Obama had their share of EOs that we mostly agreed with where they overstepped their authority as well. I guess I am trying to distinguish between world ending levels of concerns and things that will be fought out in the courts and fall where they fall within a system that remains.
No, most people aren’t paying much attention. The majority did not vote for this.
To be clear, I was in agreement that the likely thing to happen is sparking massive protests and using that as an excuse to declare martial law.
I don’t know about outright martial law, but I do think the odds of the Insurrection Act being invoked are materially greater than 0.
Maybe? Both parties have been moving towards the extremes for 20 years now so it is difficult to say what they endorse based on who they voted for.
If you put Trump’s actions into 1) rhetoric only, 2) actions the majority supports, and 3) actions the majority rejects, how much fits in the third bucket?
Maybe? Just being more loyal matters a lot, sadly.