The western world is in turmoil after only what, 4-6 weeks of Trump?
What’s your best guess as to what we’re looking at after 4 years of this?
Much closer relationship between Europe, Canada, UK, and Australia/NZ.
The US will be a much less desirable destination for many.
Ultimately, what Trump will do is damage global economic growth (this affects the poorer countries more vs developed ones), accelerate climate change (US will be heavily affected), and materially embed the oligarchy into all US governmental organs.
Will be a bit like Hungary in that respect. An illiberal democracy.
You can still vote…it just won’t make any real difference.
Not a great place to live basically. I would imagine emigration out of the US will accelerate.
In 4 years, we’ll have just elected a Democrat.
There will be more tariffs but not as much as Trump is currently planning.
There will be less trade between the US and outside countries and maybe some more manufacturing within the US.
US growth will have suffered a little from the above.
Millions of people from India and China and South America will still want to immigrate, but perhaps the Europeans will be happy staying home (they already are anyway).
Canada will still be its own country.
Russia will have some Ukrainian land, and will be further working on expanding their land. (Just trying to find someplace warm is my view).
Trump will have pardoned another set of people, including himself.
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Meanwhile the US’ transition from coal to natural gas has been leading the world in reduced carbon emissions
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Also, in the US
The rich will be richer. Some from direct gov’t contracts/privatization, some from reductions of regulations that protect workers and the environment, some from more business consolidation (aka monopolies).
The rest of us will keep a smaller fraction of what we produce.
We will have more pollution and less land for public enjoyment and fewer rights at work.
(That assumes that the AI boosters are wrong about AI turning the economy upside down.)
People will still be saying COBOL is about to go away
People will still be saying Excel VBA is about to go away
There will be more jobs programming AI and less jobs creating content and doing creative work
Many AI startups will fail spectacularly
One or two will become huge and spawn a new biopic of their CEO
More cars will be self driving
There will be a new fancy technology spawning a new mania a la crypto or chatgpt
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Baby boomers will be average 74 in age
Keep in mind, people have always thought the world is ending
In fact this is how the news keeps you watching
Statistically the world can only end once, hasn’t yet, and yet people have been convinced it is about to, forever
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I don’t think anything is going particularly well for Trump, Musk, or really any of his MAGA critters in congress. The shit seems like it is starting to catch up to them and they will quickly realize they need to get in their tax cuts before its too late. Once that is done we just hope another disaster doesn’t hit the US like COVID before his term is up.
Has Trump fired anyone yet? Musk has to be the first to go, and after that Trump 2.0 looks like Trump 1.0 and he gives up and spends the next 3.5 years golfing, possibly kicks the bucket from a massive heart attack or something.
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Destabilized global order.
The dollar is no longer the global reserve currency.
China has captured Taiwan.
Russia has ground Ukraine down to nothing.
The Canadian US border is mostly sealed.
Japan and South Korea have turned completely to China.
Europe is united.
Gaza is gone.
America is much poorer, but the rich are still rich.
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We forget how to make ice cream
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Add Japan to the countries being driven away from the US, and strengthening partnerships with the UK, Canada, and Australia especially.
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Crooks almost always get caught in the end, continuously pushing the limits until they break. MAGA has pushed a culture war for 10 years now in pursuit off their agenda, and it has distracted everyone enough that they mostly let Trump get away with whatever he wanted. The headlines today are more about DOGE and what the administration is doing. This isn’t sustainable, especially if economic numbers start taking a hit and government programs are cut out of people’s lives.
How far America lets him go will impact things.
Canadians are going to be mad for years at a minimum, people aren’t just going to forget. So there will be impacts on global order even if Trump leaves today. Damage has been done, significant damage, the US has shown they can’t be trusted and thier words are meaningless.
In a future world where Trump is no longer here, is this still true? It depends on who will take over. Anger subsides, and a new POTUS in 4 years can sway opinions quickly.
I do agree that Trump is destroying the idea that the US can be reliable and some damage has been done that will take at least a few election cycles to recover from.
I think no. I think that we got somewhat of a mulligan for 2016-2020. America was no longer a rock-solid ally, but they were still an ally that had a really weird political time for a while. They were still in some turmoil, but recovering and bending back toward being stable and competent.
America relapsed and is being treated like the liability it’s becoming.
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Yes, it’s still true long after trump’s gone. Perceptions are shifting, permanently.
I used to think of the border as basically transparent. NBD, I want to go to florida or NYC, it’s the same to me as going to PEI.
That is very much no longer the case. There’s been a shift in my understanding of what the US is. It’s a different country where I’m no longer necessarily safe - in fact, quite possible I’m not safe.
Random searches by the police, and what look to be demands of fealty. By the cops of all people. That’s not Trump, and doesn’t go away with trump. It’s ‘America, and American’s’.
And a lot of what I’m seeing is that in general, Americans are pretty content with what’s going on.
And the economic stuff, that’s not shifting back easily. If we’ve pulled american product off the store shelves, and have become acclimatised to other products, that’s not moving back. I haven’t had an American orange since this started - I’m not sure I can even buy an American orange even if I wanted to.
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Taking a step back: that is a headline that 6 months ago would not have been printed. Also, that seems like an everyday thing for US citizens (minorities).
Could the police have even known two non-citizens were driving a rental car? I assume they could tell it was a rental, and that was probably enough to harass the occupants.
I won’t defend anything Trump has done, but I would caution baking in too much short term anger into long term outcomes. It’s pretty basic human nature.
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“Stop and Frisk” was indefensible, but is not the same as stopping random people and challenging their fealty to Trump. There is a strong bent of authoritarianism taking hold.
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This is one example, and may be reactionary. But it’s hardly an isolated case. My point stands, Canadians in the US are no longer necessarily safe by default.
And it’s not anger - geesh, I just am not going to go on vacation in a place like this.
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