Long-term outcomes come from repetitive short-term behavior.
The thing about Trump and his autocratic tendencies, is that you will get a clustering effect of people in positions of power and influence that will be nudged to follow him out of self-preservation (as they do not want to be targeted themselves)
This will then cascade down to people on the ground who will start to mentally normalise that behavior.
And thats how you end up with an increasing amount of dysfunctional interactions with non-Americans.
I feel like this is asking whether WW2 would have happened if Hitler weren’t there. The anger and resentment underlying MAGAism was seething before he took office, and the elements will remain after he leaves.
Canadians (and other noncitizens, and nonwhite people) have never been safe in the US by default, particularly since 9/11.
What’s unclear is how much of the more recent difficulties are “new” rather than simply being more widely reported on due to the pervasiveness of social media and heightened awareness in the face of other, clearly new, shenanigans being perpetrated by Dear Leader and his administration.
I wouldn’t be at all surprised if much of what’s being reported is a reflection of dicks feeling more empowered to be dicks…but it’s hard to objectively tell to how much of a real deterioration there is.
It will get worse actually as the US economic situation deteriorates for that demographic cohort.
They will be looking for someone to blame for their lives getting worse.
A perfect example of this is Brexit.
Almost 10 years on from 2016, when the economic damage that the UK has sustained due to Brexit is crystal clear, there is still a 30% slice of the population who refuses to accept that Brexit made the UK worse off.
These folks tend to skew rural white, older, and are largely uneducated. This is very much like the MAGA folks.
If Trump lasts the entire 4 years, it will be horrific. Think Russia under Stalin. That’s the direction Trump will try to take the country to. Whatever he can do to solidify control of everything while eliminating enemies, he’ll do it.
If he kicks off before then, it will be a “behind the scenes” fight to take control. Vance will get ignored, Junior doesn’t have anything near the same connections or sway. There is no clear-cut “this is who Republicans will coalesce around” figure; you’d have to go find someone else who took the same kind of life arc that Trump did, where they’ve got wealth [or, “wealth”] and charisma, and at some point suddenly became really cozy to Russia. [And/or Saudi Arabia.]
The bigger threat is a disillusioned MAGA going feral and going after Trump, Musk, etc. If that happens, it’s going to get ugly and all bets are off.
I think we can blame the government going all the way back to the Nixon years and all the subsequent administrations.
I like trade and don’t think we should be putting up barriers to it. But I don’t think the government did enough to transition the people who were left behind in the rust belt to high tech and service sector jobs.
Sociopaths in uniform doing Whatever The Fuck they want to, knowing there is no punishment.
To Canadians: I am barely feeling safe anymore. I was recently introduced to a MAGA guy and his wife (she works with a friend who invites them over along with us). He works at a local Sheriff Station. I don’t yet know what he does there, but do I dare tangle with him over his perceived political beliefs? Fuck no! He could easily be a sociopathic POS that thinks, “he’s gonna get it, I’ll look up everything I can about him and destroy his life.” Maybe I’m paranoid.
I think you have to ask yourself if you really think Trump 2.0 will be any different than 1.0:
-Trump feels invincible, and he might be, but the people around him are not
-Many will end up in legal troubles just like last time
-Trump is still lazy, and will spend most of his time golfing after his 100 days or however long he keeps trying to break things
-Public opinion and the stock market will prevent some of his worst ideas from happening, we are already seeing that happen
-The firings have not yet started. There may be fewer if loyalty was better vetted, but people will still reach limits
IIRC, there were some “retraining” programs. One reason they weren’t enough is that a factory worker who barely managed a HS diploma isn’t going to make it in a “high tech” job. And, the service jobs this worker can do (maybe work the counter in a convenience store) don’t pay as much as those unionized manufacturing jobs.
I would add those living in northern towns whose economies collapsed with the decline of mining and industry, usually defined as the red wall. I expect these to fall to Reform in the next election. I assume the rust belt is similar to this?
They will push things to the brink and do damage, but I think ultimately those people will get lawyers that advise them that legal expenses and jail time are real consequences and that Trump can’t be relied on for pardons to bail them out.
Trump 1.0 showed us what will happen. He will fire people. They will face legal consequences. Their careers will be over. He will quickly forget about them. Trump and project 2025 may not care about public opinion and presidential norms, but if they ultimately operate under the bounds of presidential authority, this will ultimately pass.
There is a chance that the abrupt disruption of federal government services that could come out of this will highlight to all Americans what has been taken for granted for decades. MAGA supporters are going to be disproportionately affected by all of this. Education on all that is coming.
A deal with the U.S. is now seen to be valid only for the current presidential term. It makes no sense to make a long term deal with the U.S. as the president might renege following the next election.
I agree this is what should happen. I have little confidence that it will work. If the ‘education’ comes via the same news outlets people are using now it will somehow end up being Biden’s fault.
I think you have to distinguish between what America may become versus how its relationship with the rest of the world will have changed. While I can see America resetting internally the damage is permanent as far as its relationship with the rest of the world goes.
Canada, for example, has started the process of distancing itself from the USA and that change can not be easily reversed. The USA will never be viewed as a trusted ally again.
In summary, the US may eventually revert to some sort of norm but its relationship to some countries has been permanently damaged.