Rumors of Trump dancing on the graves of loser soldiers are unfounded.
He tripped on a blade of grass. That’s all.
I hear the blade of grass has mental issues, too.
Here’s a gifted link to the article. What are the odds that Harris or Trump will remain healthy for a four-year term? - The Globe and Mail
I came up with 28% of men who are 78 now will be dead by 83.
The Army is condemning the actions of Trump’s staff. Hopefully the US Army is politically neutral so their view should have some weight (in some quarters, at least).
Different view by Fox, of course.
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I very much doubt they are just straight up using the results from the tables. They would have used a degree of expert judgment in looking at the extra risks of being POTUS and adjusted the results.
By the way, just realised that KH becoming President is going to upend a few rules in DC.
Usually, its POTUS and FLOTUS (Secret Service call signs for the President and First Lady).
Obviously, if KH becomes President she would be POTUS. But what would they call her husband?
First Lad?
FGOTUS?
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Doug.
Dad?
In the article sent to me by Cooke it stated that the mortality came from RP-2014 table and morbidity from Canadian experience which according to the article probably under estimated the true rate. Nothing was stated about additional presidential risks which I guess could include Air Force 1 crashing while the president is flying, as well as assassination.
Empirical probability of assassination is 4/248 but that might be adjusted with assumption that there will be a lot of pissed off 2nd amendment people spurred on by Trump.
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I would personally feel much safer traveling on air force 1 than say taking the subway everyday.
Tucker has a weird laugh.
Haven’t happened to read 538 lately and no time this morning. By the timing and the fact it’s annotated, sensing that he’s attributing it to an RFK bump? I have been wondering whether that would manifest. It seems if the endorsement had any real impact, it must tip toward Trump.
"However, she’s fallen to a 47.3 percent chance of winning the Electoral College versus 52.4 percent for Donald Trump. (The numbers don’t add to 100 because of the possibility of an Electoral College deadlock.) Some of this is because of the convention bounce adjustment that the model applies to polls that were conducted during or after the DNC. It assumes Harris’s polls are somewhat inflated right now, in other words — just as it assumed Trump’s numbers were inflated after the RNC. While there’s a solid basis for this empirically, you could argue we’re under unusual circumstances because of her late entry into the race. So if you want to treat all of this as a little fuzzier than usual, I don’t really mind that. "
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Polls are a bit all over the place, a few days ago I saw Trump +7 in GA, then yesterday I saw Harris +2.
I don’t subscribe to Silver (he’s no longer at 538 because he sold it, btw), but my understanding is that he has PA leaning Trump hence the median result being a Trump win. But he still has the mean number of EV for Harris being > 270.
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