I incorrectly stated it was life expectancy rather than the probability of completing the term. The actuary is probably working morbidity into the calculation. I have corrected my post.
Iām glad to hear this. It was a little depressing to think you had a 4% chance of dying at 60.
Yeah, I didnāt even look at the numbers. Good thing we have eagle-eyed actuaries like AA.
Probability a 60 year old female meets the Social Security definition of disability at that age is about .5%. That leaves 2.5%. Maybe thatās the assassination and impeachment risk.
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I was not involved in the calculation: just screenshotted the chart from the Globe and Mail. Fred Vettese was the actuary that prepared it. I expect he is in the SOA directory if you want to contact him for clarification.
Is there a way you can post the entire article?
Iāve used up my free Globe articles for the month but I will screenshot the full article and send it to you.
The q(60) for white collar employed females from the table he used is .2%. He didnāt specify his morbidity table but I donāt think the probability that Kamala Harris would become incapacitated to the extent that she would have to resign in her first year is 3.8%.
Most Canadian actuaries read the Globe so his numbers might get challenged by another actuary and something may subsequently show up in the Globe.
Assassination risk for a POTUS is pretty high. Going back to JFK thatās one dead POTUS, another one shot while in office, and the attempt on Trump that is at least a data point to consider. 10%/4 years isnāt unreasonable.
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JD Vance just needs to release a primer of who does and doesnāt count as legitimate children.
If we can just know, like:
- Woman with child conceived via sex - is your child
- Woman with child conceived via IVF - seems like not your child, but for some bills heāll vote to let you conceive, others vote against
- Woman with child conceived via IUI - questionable whether is your child, but itās a scandal if you once said you used something ālike IVFā
- Gay woman with child - not your child
- Transgender person with child - not your child
- Man with wife who has a child - your wife has a child, at a minimum
- Adopted child - not your child
Might be missing some of his positions but that seems to be his positions.
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are Gay, Trans Not Your Child still apply if concieved via sex?
Missionary position? If not, we will have to look into the matter a bit more.
Thanks for you patience.
He refers to his kids as being Ushaās kids, so I think my kids are my exes. For sure he doesnāt think Iām a mother.
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maybe he has doubts as to his paternity
These cases are why JDās unclear platform is such a problem.
His previous statements donāt really address this. We know JD doesnāt count adopted children of gay couples as being their children. But if somebody conceived a child before coming out of the closet? Or they were openly gay already but decided to go through intercourse anyway?
These are important issues and JD needs a normal human being position on them.
The numbers for Harris seem unreasonably high. Accidentally running the numbers for males rather than females, it looked like there would be about 6% mortality from age 59 to 63. Going to 64 doesnāt cause much more of an increase.
Photo because Iām too lazy to link. Males are on the left, females on the right. First column of the row is age, then repeated for males and females, is death probability, number of lives, and life expectancy.
Can you run numbers for Trump? I thought I got about a 25% chance of him dying within his 4-year term, but maybe that was only 4 years from when I looked earlier this year so his chance is higher.
I recall his life expectancy as of earlier this year was something in the range of 8-8.5, as a non-Life actuary using some table I found online (likely the same as @Fish_Actuary, looking at it).
Both of the āchances to dieā seem unreasonably high, even for an average person let alone one with the best medical care in the world. (Arguably, Trumpās diet and 3 AM toilet rage-tweeting may cancel that out, but Iām minimizing assumptions.) I see Trump at just below 6% in one year rather than 12% and 0.8% for Harris rather than 4%, from the female table.
Sadly they did not try to push past the guards of the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier, that would have been amusing.
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