I don’t believe he actually thinks this at all. He’s not the brightest, but I’m nearly sure he still has the mental capacity to understand “mom and dad were different races.”
This isn’t just coming from Trump, anyway. It’s all of his surrogates and fed through Fox et. al. down to the masses such that the masses are now repeating it.
I doubt it will help them… but unsure whether it will overall be a neutral or a negative result for them. MAGA seems a little unsure of what it stands for anymore other than a few core beliefs like LGBT = pedophile and brown = bad, but probably the racism will push out a few more MAGA to vote.
At the same time, I anticipate that any successes in some Black people being “semi-convinced” and staying home will be more than offset by other Black people being upset at the racism and making sure to vote.
This. Trump is trying to control the narrative. He knows that if he can gain control of the narrative and the media cycle he has a chance. With Biden stepping out the race Trump etal. lost control, they were no longer making the headlines, telling us what to talk about. As soon as he isn’t in control the people have a chance to look back and realize his problems, (why the “he’s weird” movement is getting traction.)
I agree, with a slight clarification that Trump does not really care what people are saying, as long as it is about him. Not Harris, not JD Vance, just him. When Harris picks her VP, expect Trump to say something completely outlandish so he can be on the front page with that story. .
I don’t think this is true. The pairs of justices that seem vote together 90%+ in non unanimous cases are Roberts/Kavanagh and Kagan/Sotomayor at least in recent years.
I would have thought Alito/Thomas would be the two most likely in lock step but both seem to disagree with the other 8 justices more than any other pairing when considering the whole court.
The Alito/thomas pair was mostly likey to disagree with the kagan/Sotomayor pair
At least what I checked on this Harvard review site that has some fun pyramid graphics. I did t check the emergency stay but may later if I get a chance and data is from 2022 and prior.
This in particular. What Trump does it make headlines. The way to make headlines is to say or do something that people find offensive.
He’s not going to win any black votes that way, but he will win more white votes because they will say “well, sure he can be inappropriate sometimes, but he tells like it is, and is a good president” or whatever. Anyway, he’ll be in the news, and Harris will be out of the news. We could be talking about what Harris is going to do as president, what her prosecutor experience means, what it will mean to have the first female president ever. And instead we have a fucking stupid argument about blackness.
The saying “there’s not such thing as bad publicity” is like Trump’s strategy in a nut shell. And explains basically every random dickbag things he’s ever said as well as the Big Lie, the insurrection, and the mueller investigation.
The last guy was 8 years younger and only suspected of being a rapist. His previous multiple frauds were comparatively small to this 78-year old’s recent fraud judgment. That guy also hadn’t attempted to overthrow the government on January 6th.
I have no confidence in a Harris win, but I find myself feeling more than even about her chances. Polls still don’t seem particularly useful yet, but I’ll start paying attention next month.
My guess is polls will be at least somewhat accurate around mid September. Long enough for both conventions to be over and long enough for votes in the middle to decide if a Harris is a viable alternative for them. I suspect the “I hate both Biden and Trump crowd” will break for Harris or just not vote. I can’t see that block saying geez now I love Trump that Biden is out of the race.
But that by no means means it will happen or that Harris “has it in the bag”, but I think we’ll know more about how those voters broke by mid September.
Guys, this is closer to 2008 than it is 2016 or 2020. Harris is generating Obama levels of enthusiasm and killing it on social media. Trump is a terrible candidate (way worse than McCain, but stronger base enthusiasm), has a Palin quality running mate. The polls aren’t showing it now, but this will be 2020 Biden + NC + FL. OH, IA, and TX will be close. There are going to be new voters by the millions showing up for Harris. 4+ years of young people not old enough to vote last time and all those who did not bother showing up to pick between 74+ year olds yelling at each other.
All that minority/hispanic vote that shifted away from Obama towards Trump will show up as well.
90M votes for Harris by the time we are done counting.
I would love for you to be right, but I very much doubt that Texas will be close unless there’s an issue that will drive left-leaning voters to the polls.
I lost track of where Ohio is with abortion. Do they have an abortion measure on the ballot in the fall or was that already decided?
I’m not seeing this but maybe I need to get out more.
McCain was a great candidate who lost because he ran in a year when the Republican was going to lose no matter what. Which he did because he was old and it was his last chance to run at all.
True
Sadly the things about Vance that Trump’s base actually dislike are things that should be non-issues (his wife’s race / nationality of her family of origin, lies about what his book says) and the many actual problems with Vance don’t seem to register. They dislike him for all the wrong reasons.
I won’t weep if white supremacists fail to vote for Trump because his VP’s wife and children are minorities/biracial. White supremacy shouldn’t exist, but hopefully the two evils partially cancel out.
Yeah, I think Trump will do well in Ohio then. No wedge issue to drive Ohio liberals and moderates to the polls and moderate Ohioans may be reluctant to vote against their own Senator even if they dislike Trump.
Vance won Ohio by more than 6% in 2022 after a hotly contested primary.
Trump won Ohio by more than 8% in both 2020 and 2016.
I’d love to move Ohio back into the purple column, but I think it’s now a red state.
