Vance adds nothing to Trump’s ticket. He picked Vance after Biden’s awful debate and it was clear he would not be able to recover. Vance is Trump 2.0.
With Biden out that looks like a dumb pick, because Trump needs to actually compete. Vance is losing him votes he can no longer lose.
Trump has said “the VP pick doesn’t change outcome” - so even Trump realizes that he fcked up with the Vance pick and is just hoping he doesn’t lose him votes.
Obama won Ohio by 5% in 2008 and 3% in 2012. It will be a battle of turnout.
Agreed. If Harris wins Ohio, I think it’s probably an Electoral college landslide overall. I think that’s pretty unlikely this year.
PA, GA, MI, WI, NC, AZ, NV all could be in play.
In 49 states and DC, yes, absolutely agree.
I think Ohio was not ever in play in the first place but it is doubly not in play now.
MAYBE Andy Beshear would help Kamala Harris in neighboring Ohio, but … not enough to actually turn it. (Of course if she could turn Kentucky that would be a real coup, but that seems unlikely even with Beshear as her running mate. Kentuckians are terrified of threats to the coal industry.)
Shapiro won PA by 15%. Biden won it by 1%. Turnout will drive the result this election. It was buried in the 2016 results because no one liked Clinton and Trump. It was buried in 2020 before Trump went completely insane and was just a general asshole that many people turned out to vote against.
The polls can’t capture the potential enthusiasm gap.
I hope you are right but I can’t see Ohio really being in play for the reasons Twig listed.
I could see her carrying all the Biden states, that very reasonable. Iowa does really seem in play. And I’ve been hearing TX will be close your a bunch of election cycles, I’ll believe it when it happens.
FLA could be interesting, especially if they keep the abortion measure on the ballot. But Harris has some ground to gain and not a lot of time to gain it.
And NC is very much a battleground state so if Harris has a swell, she’s likely to take that and GA.
Uhhhh…
Again, think in terms of an election like 2008 or 2012, not 2016 or 2020. Or at least recognize harris represents a dynamic that needs to be factored in that is not reflected in 16 or 20.
Bob Good lost his primary recount. The Freedum Caucus is loosing its chair.
That’s like saying when Harris turned Black.
He was always embarrassing, but it’s not like Biden won an electoral landslide in 2020, after all the covid nonsense. He probably would have won easily if covid didnt happen.
But January 6, all the election BS, multiple legal issues, Trump exhaustion about all of it. Who are the voters he gained and why?
I was commenting on your implication that Trump was sane in 2020.
You’ve said this several times and I will repeat that I’m not seeing it. 
Dems still need to come out and vote.
And make sure they’re not disenfranchised beforehand.
Lawsuits, purging voter rolls, election deniers in charge of counting the vote, voter suppression in democratic areas. That’s the Republican play book this year.
Celebrity endorsements, the large zoom gatherings, the public buy in from nearly everyone in the party in 48 hours. If you aren’t seeing it, I am convinced you aren’t paying attention. Which is fine, most American’s aren’t either.
Meh, they always break heavily for Dems.
While turnout will certainly be critical, the bolded part also betrays what you’re not seeing. Obama had high enthusiasm from people who aren’t normally politically active. That’s what I’m not seeing with Harris.
And some of the intra-party hype is simply “yay, the old guy isn’t running” and will probably die down by November. Or mid-August.
This is also possible.
It definitely looks to me like KH has a lock on the younger crowd now.
Rural areas (who skew older, religious, conservative) will go for Trump (Ohio would be one).
Profiles of MAGA supporters:
