United States Congressional & Gubernatorial 2022 elections

…except for putting out press releases that are full of spin & bull shit…kind of like a manure spreader.

I’m not anti-Walker, mind you. I’m just anti-politicians-acting-like-they’re-not-politicians.

You should be.

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Well, I’m certainly not pro-Walker, either. I also don’t care enough about Georgia politics to put much more effort into enlightening my stance.

Its for an office that will have power over every American. It doesnt matter if you don’t care about GA politics.

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I’m anti-idiot. Herschel Walker is an idiot.

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New Fox polls are out.

GA

Warnock leads Walker 46%-42%
Kemp leads Abrams 47-44

PA

Fetterman 47 Oz 36
Shapiro 50 Mastriano 40

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That’s interesting. If accurate (a big if) it suggests that Walker’s candidacy is going to cost the Republicans a seat they otherwise would win.

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Why is that is a big if? Because its Fox doing the poll?

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There are still enough undecided voters in GA that both the senate and gubernatorial races are too close to call. It’s possible that some of the undecided’s will break more Walker’s way. If you are still undecided knowing that one of your choices is an idiot and pathological liar, then I imagine you might be considering holding your nose and voting for him anyway. There might also be an underreporting issue with Walker, with folks embarrassed to reveal their Walker preference to pollsters.

I don’t have any data to support either theory above. It’s just a hunch.

Yeah, I’m not sure about now but I thought during one of the Obama elections Fox News polls were consistently more Republican-leaning than others, and less accurate too.

I honestly haven’t followed much since then. Possibly they tweaked their methodology and are more accurate now and my qualifier is unnecessary.

Both seem like reasonable theories, but yeah, it’s true there’s a lot of undecideds.

Predictions:

  • Democrats gain 2-4 seats in the Senate.
  • Democrats maintain significant lead in House.
  • Democrats also win several key toss-up governors races.
  • Trumpkins flip out again, everyone else grits their teeth and watches the book get thrown at them again.

Possibly if elections were held soon, but I’m afraid no way in November

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I think much will depend on the extent to which NARAL and other pro-choice organizations can get pro-choicers to the polls.

I thought that if Obama was “Swift-boated” in 2008 about his pastor (to the same extent that Kerry was 4 years earlier) he would have lost. But he wasn’t. The right chose to ease off on the ammunition they had.

The left has the ammunition to make significant gains in November. So far they haven’t used it yet to any significant degree. Maybe they will; maybe they won’t. I think the outcome of many key races will hinge on their success or failure in getting their base riled up and to the polls.

If you’re willing to “swiftboat” an opponent, then you always have ammunition. The swiftboat attacks were fabricated and not true. It’s not hard to simply make up attacks on opponents.

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During 2020 Fox News polls were actually a point or two more D leaning than NYT or others. I believe the polling is divorced from the “entertainment” side of the business.

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Oh, ok well I take back my “big if” comment then. Still a lot of undecideds.

True, although making up lies that the independent / undecided voters will believe is harder.

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Of course. But with presidential campaigns awash in hundreds of millions of dollars, it’s far more feasible.

The AZ GOP nominee for secretary of state is Mark Finchem. He’s just the kind of guy the GOP wants running elections: QANON conspiracy theorist, 1/6 insurrectionist, Oath keeper, and huge promoter of the big lie.