NOTE: This thread started out as Senate-only but has expanded to include the entire Congressional and Goober elections.
Class 3 of the United States Senate is up for election in 2022.
Ballotpedia has some info on it.
I don’t know of any vacancies in Classes 1 or 2.
The current makeup is 50 Rs and 48+2 Ds+Is.
24 Rs & 10 Ds are up for election in 2022.
5 senators, all Rs & all in Class 3, from AL, MO, NC, OH, & PA are retiring.
These are the races (along with the current party holding that seat) that I see as competitive:
AZ D, GA D, NV D, PA R
Right now, I see all of them going R…but just barely.
These are leaning strongly for the incumbent:
CO D, FL R, MO R, NC R, OH R, WI R
NH is leaning strongly to switch D to R.
For these, well, let’s just say that something catastrophic would have to happen:
R: AL, AK, AR, ID, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, OK, SC, SD, UT
D: CA, CT, HI, IL, MD, NY, ND, OR, VT, WA
In the last week, futures markets shifted to R for AZ, GA, & NV.
My current prediction is the Rs pick up 4 seats (AZ, GA, NV, & NH). The first three are close. NH is pretty certain. The only chance for Ds to pick up a seat is in PA where Toomey is retiring, but it’s currently leaning R.
Current Initial prediction & (Initial) Best case scenario for Rs
R: 54 (pick up AZ, GA, NV, NH, hold PA)
D+I: 46 = 44+2
(Initial) Best case scenario for Ds:
R: 50 (pick up NH)
D+I: 50 = 48+2 (pick up PA)