UK General Election 2024

Was walking around Surrey today and it was interesting how strong the anti-tory view is now from former tory voters.

I have never seen this before in prior elections. People in their 60s, 70s, 80s all denouncing how terrible the Tories have become, and the damage that they have caused.

Wouldn’t be surprised if Sunak lost his seat up north as well, because Hunt is definitely going to lose his in Surrey.

I have been reflecting on this because its definitely a risk.

The UK is so economically damaged, that it will probably take five years just to stabilise the sinking ship, assuming Starmer doesn’t make bad decisions in the interim.

With Farage & Co. as the opposition (this is a possibility now as they might displace the Tories polling wise) they will be very loud when it comes to immigration (won’t be coming down quickly due to labour shortages) and economic issues (the left behind areas of the UK are going to get a lot poorer over the next five years due to Brexit).

I can see them getting a higher vote share in five years time due to those two reasons above.

The thing about Farage is that he has never actually been involved in getting stuff done in Govt. He always likes to lob grenades at UK politics, and then lets others pick up the pieces when things go sideways. I am not convinced he would not turn out like Boris - people would eventually see that he was a liar and an incompetent charlatan when nothing he claimed was actually achieved.

Sunak not showing up at the D-Day observations will be another negative factor for many older voters.

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Yes. A lot of them watch tv almost religiously every day and the BBC has commented on it.

And even if the right decisions are taken, if people don’t feel enough of the benefit we’ll get a similar situation to Biden vs Trump.

Some interesting stuff happening on the other side of The Channel. Macron is really rolling the dice.

Took everyone by surprise.

It looks like he is trying to copy what the Spanish PM did.

But its a huge risk. We could end up with Le Pen.

Indeed a huge risk for Macron (and France.) Voters don’t usually like snap early elections so his party may be punished.

It’s become a meme now (from a Guardian article about the English cricket team) - “Having Jacks bowl that over was probably Buttler’s leaving D-Day moment.”

Additionally, Rishi might be able to make a career as a wetsuit salesperson after he leaves office.

Unlike Italy, France and Germany I don’t see the extreme right in the UK having much current appeal? Voters are fed up with the Conservative Party regardless of where its members are on the political spectrum?

Their “following” is mostly older, retired people that are completely dependent on the state. You see a lot of these folks in deprived areas with a high % of retired people.

I would estimate its about 15% or so of the vote.

The rest of the population doesn’t really agree with Farage, and while they may nod their heads at some of the stuff he says they don’t take him seriously.

There is a huge “anybody but the Tories” push but that means that people will prefer to vote tactically to get them out instead of simply voting reform. It is likely that the LDs will be winners of this kind of tactical voting in many areas where the Tories used to dominate.

Have to admit that I am enjoying the Tory desperation.

They have had it coming for a long time. Brexit, followed by their terrible governance has caused so much economic damage. I am hoping for a complete electoral wipeout.

The thing about FPTP voting is that once a party hits a tipping point, their share of the total seats can take a massive hit. It is quite a volatile system vs say PR.

Thats what they are afraid of now because its not only Labour eating into their vote share, but also the LDs and Reform. They are now at serious risk of not even being the opposition.

It could be like the 1993 Canadian Federal election when the Conservatives went from a majority government to having three parties with more seats than them. Those Tories only ended up with two seats in the Canadian House of Commons but I don’t see that extreme a result for the UK Tories.

Its official…Reform has overtaken the Tories in the polls.

Depressing that they get nearly 40% between them

Sunak being snubbed by G7 leaders? Sad that Meloni may be the most popular country leader at the conference.

Electoral Calculus update June

Tories are pretty close to finished as a party.

This is probably wishful thinking. They will still have a significant presence and can build up from there once people’s goldfish memories kick in and believe the cons when they blame all the problems on labor

Am not so sure about that.

It looks like the more extreme right-wing of the party will dominate going forwards.

The UK is more of a centrist country (I would argue it is center-right) and most people are pretty repulsed by their (extreme right) constant infighting and chaos. Its basically been scandal after scandal after scandal. People are fed up with their antics.

Unless the Conservatives start moving back to the middle (and get some decent MPs) they are going to have very few seats as Reform and the LDs will eat into their support in a major way.

I would agree by our standards but not by US standards.