I found the prediction for the Lib Dems to be especially interesting. They are forecast to get a smaller % of the popular vote compared to five years ago but see their seat tally go from 8 to 63!
I think we may also find that Labour gets a smaller number of votes but a lot more seats as their vote becomes more efficient.
Wasn’t that said about Canadian Tories in 1993? They were back as the official opposition 11 years later, and formed a government two years after that.
Playing with Electoral Calculus’ map is interesting.
And yet another Tory scandal just blew up the election.
They were caught betting on the date of the election (this is illegal given their inside knowledge)
They are in freefall now. Sunak is definitely going to lose his seat.
There is a longer story to the 1993 debacle in Canada.
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There were several times in the past when I voted for the old Progressive Conservative Party in Canada. They even had some “Red Tories” in those days including one who became PM.
However, the Canadian Reform Party ultimately did a reverse takeover of the old Progressive Conservative Party and the name “Progressive” was eventually dropped from the official name of the current Conservative Party. Very appropriate imo.
The Brits here might enjoy the cover photo for the main opinion piece in my daily Canadian newspaper.
They should rename that: “The Last Act of an Empire in decline”
I don’t personally see the UK recovering from the economic and social damage from those last 5 PMs (started by Brexit)
This quote from the article was particularly revealing:
** In a recent YouGov poll, Britons considered how life had changed during 14 years of Conservative governance. A majority said the following had gotten worse: the cost of living, the health service, the immigration system, the economy, crime and policing, housing, Britain’s standing in the world, standards in public life, local government services, the welfare system, the armed forces, schools, transport, the tax system and British democracy itself.**
They have the same problem in France. The younger population has also lost hope because of its almost impossible to build wealth due to high taxes and inflation, so it looks like we we will get the RN in France voted in.
This also tells me that economic factors are also likely to dominate the US election. Trump then gets the advantage because voters will blame Biden for the high prices.
What many voters don’t realize is that there are no easy fixes. As critical as I am of the UK Tories, Labour is not going to be able to wave a wand and suddenly make everything good again.
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Agreed.
But the issues (in the UK) really boils down to a disconnect between the ever increasing long-term liabilities (pensions, healthcare) and the productivity of the working population (who generate the income and taxes to pay for those long-term liabilities).
It is effectively mathematically impossible to pay for those pensions and healthcare if you have a failing infrastructure. You just end up chasing your own tail increasing taxes more and more on the working population to pay for the benefits being given to the pensioners. Productivity trend growth then becomes non-existent.
So the optimal thing to do is focus on fixing and improving the failing infrastructure. In an envionment where every pound is precious, they will have to face down the entitled older pensioner block in the UK in order to make it work.
Just to add to this:
Have added in a gift link below, but given how close this is to the election (and how much it is being covered) we may now be talking about the complete destruction of the Conservative Party in the UK.
In today’s news in the US: Will this candidate
receive more votes than Sunak in the Richmond and Northallerton constituency?
My question: by any chance is Count Binface also a natural-born citizen of the United States? We’re in need of a presidential candidate people can get behind.
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First I’ve heard of Count Binface! Any political connection to Lord Buckethead? Paywall on the WaPo article.
Different “entity”.
I think the funniest MP selection that I have ever seen was Theresa May (Prime Minister at the time) in her Maindenhead constituency waiting for the results of her seat with Lord Buckethead in the line beside her.
Saint Boniface, “the patron saint of Germania”, was born in UK, so maybe this is one of his great-great-great-…-grand nephews.
I seem to recall he ran against Boris in the last General Election and was quite prominent in the 2021 London mayoral race. I tried to persuade my daughter to vote for him.
This is the type of shocker that I expect in the UK election except it will be the Conservatives losing, rather than winning, safe seats. Yesterday’s St. Paul’s riding upset is a huge blow to Trudeau. We could see a swing in power next year similar to the UK but to, rather than away from, the Tories.
The betting scandal in the UK is shaping up to be an absolute whopper.
I didn’t think UK politicians could sink lower…but I was wrong.