That’s not quite true.
The fringes of MAGA are not beyond redemption.
However, the core cult…
Farmers are an important Trump constituency so I expect he will compensate them as was the case when they suffered financial losses after China stopped soybean imports as retaliation for US tariffs.
The rules around those earlier payments were sloppily worded, such that some people who were connected to the farming industry but not materially impacted by the circumstance that triggered those payments, were able to get nice windfalls.
Russia has the world’s largest reserves of potash as well as huge oil and gas reserves. Trump seems to view Russia in a friendlier light than Canada these days so I could see him permitting unlimited imports of tariff-free Russian oil and potash to put more pressure on Canada becoming the 51st state.
They do not have the resources to export enough Potash to the US given that:
Russian Exports:
Brazil 29%
US 9%
China 26%
India 29%
This means either Brazil/China/India would have to get more Potash from a major producer (Canada) and have Russia send more potash to the US.
I don’t see Russia cutting China & India off, so that leaves Brazil. And Russia has no issues with Brazil (and they are both in BRICS)
1 Like
It is nonsensical for US to change its potash imports from Canada to Russia so Trump may well try to.
The Globe and Mail today had a three page feature on the global potash industry which I found fascinating. It is so seamless how the potash gets from mines in Saskatchewan to its markets in the mid-West USA. The Canadian and American economies are so efficiently integrated and mutually beneficial that I just shake my head at Trump’s mercantilism.
3 Likes
He is also targeting lumber now.
The US has been finding excuses to hit Canadian lumber with tariffs for as long as I can remember. Usually when it gets to an independent tribunal, the dumping charges are dismissed but that takes years to dispute and the US keeps finding other reasons to slap on tariffs.
The reason Canadian lumber is cheaper than American lumber is the different sourcing of the lumber. Most Canadian lumber is bought from Crown Land whereas the American trees come from private lands owned by large companies and billionaires: they get to charge more for their trees by virtue of the protective tariffs and the US consumer pays more.
I don’t think the US lumber tariffs would cease if Canada changed its forestry system. The US would find another excuse to impose tariffs. The US is really targeting Canada these days.
4 Likes
I have been looking into this one to understand who is nudging Trump in the background.
So I assume that those families that control the private land are lobbying Trump hard. The value of their land will also go up if Trump enacts tariffs.
What does that quote mean? If I own 25 acres of forest/property, is that in that 2/3 of 60% of lumber?
If you were a family business, then yes.
Yes. Billionaires control the forests that primarily source American lumber. They have pressured both Democratic and Republican administrations over the past 40 years on lumber tariffs.
He is basically making it up as he goes along.
The rate will vary by which industry lobby in the US has the most clout with Trump. If there are any lower tariffs levied, I am betting on oil and gas and potash.
Very difficult to plan when you don’t really know what Trump is going to do.
Thats one of the main problems.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/01/business/trump-tariffs-american-importers.html?smid=url-share
This as well from the article:
“It’s very fine to say we’re going to put these tariffs in place to bring jobs back to America. That assumes that America has the capability to make your product, and, more important, it assumes that it has the interest in making that product.”
1 Like
Yes. Trump has no plan.
So he is counting on people making do. Eventually, the country will reach a new steady state.
Thing is…
Canada will be damaged
US will be damaged
But Trump won’t care if the numbers go down and he can declare victory.
The whole thing is so stupid.
1 Like
The tariff charged on imports will be calculated with Excel. The formula will include “RAND()”, and customs officials will be trained in the use of the F9 key.
4 Likes
Trump confirms tariffs coming tomorrow on Canadian and Mexican imports. Canada will announce targeted counter-tariffs tomorrow.
Provinces have set aside massive funds to counter the impact for affected people. Canada is hunkering down and hoping Americans have a low pain threshold.
Americans have a low pain threshold, but an amazing ability to blame the wrong thing/person.