Thread to add/comment on Trump’s upcoming tariff schemes
Countries/Entities he is likely to target via import tariffs:
China (20% or more)
Mexico (10%)
Canada (10%)
EU (10%)
I feel that tariffs should be used like a scalpel, I expect he wants to use them as a sledge hammer.
The countries he wants to put tariffs on, Americans are buying a ton of stuff from them. The immediate result won’t be more manufacturing. It’ll be skyrocketing prices. This isn’t stop Chinese car imports, this is stop imports from China.
And trade with Canada is two way. Americans selling stuff in Canada should be concerned about retaliatory tariffs.
I don’t think his super rich supporters will let him go through with his full tariff plan.
Trump basically sees trade as “zero sum”.
So if Canada is selling the US more goods (vs vice-versa) then the US is “losing” at trade.
So he is probably going to whack a few countries with tariffs to try to reduce that deficit (and then call it a “win”).
Why has no one else thought of this brilliant idea?
The Rwandans will be laughing in our faces while driving around in their $5k Wuling Mini EVs.
Canada-US two way trade is about $1 trillion annually and Canada may have a small trade surplus. Canada would levy retaliatory tariffs to match any US ones so the end result would be an increase in the cost of those imported goods to consumers in both countries. Classic dumb move.
I suspect that he is likely to target both Canada and Mexico at the same time via USMCA re-negotiations.
Focus will be cars and dairy. Canada will probably be forced to give the US a bit more (no idea how Poilievre will deal with this though). Mexico is doing very badly right now (due to its bonkers judicial changes) so no idea how that one is going to play out.
The EU is already gearing up to fight the potential tariffs and are taking this seriously. Its probably going to get ugly.
More accurately, this is increase Chinese manufacturers’ use of “Made in Vietnam” or similar labels.
There are two schools of thought on this one.
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He is using the threat of maximalist tariffs as a negotiation tactic to extract better trade conditions.
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He told his supporters he would do it so he is going to regardless of the outcome.
The answer is probably closer to (2) than (1) in the case of Trump.
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4D chess. Roll out a lot of tariffs to spur manufacturing in the US (plus all of the tariff revenue from China!). Simultaneously kick a few million immigrant workers out of the country, when unemployment is already at 4% or whatever. I don’t see how this backfires.
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So Trump has asked Lighthizer to return as trade envoy.
Canada is exposed on dairy and % of GDP they spend on defense.
The below are the exports vs import numbers ($600bn vs $400bn). A 10% tariff would hit Canada pretty hard.
Probably by rolling over and asking for his belly to be patted.
He’ll just tell them “if there’s any financial harm to you, I’ll take care of it.”
Looking at this, the Uihein have moved from beer to shipping, they won’t like tariffs. Musk has already been asking to be exempted from tariffs. The Griffin’s are never Trumpers, so they don’t count. Adelson has her money in entertainment, she might not immediately care about tariffs. Mellon is in his 80s and crazy, who knows if he cares.
Less people working in fast food restaurants, I guess. Maybe Trump will have to take a part-time job at McDonalds.
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Ya get to mow your own lawn and then do bed pan duty for your parents. Win-win. (Some of y’all may have to learn how to catheter a few relatives. Might want to look into some community college nursing classes)
It should be a hoot to see how the monetarists explain the steep rise in prices while simultaneous withdrawing money from the marketplace via tariffs.
Hold my beer.
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He (Lighthizer) wrote this Nov 1st so he is definitely angling for a job with Trump
Just that little blurb tells me, “Waah, you are better at making stuff! Stop making me hurt you!!!” Classic wife-beater mentality.
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