So uh, do you guys think Putin will invade Ukraine or what

Well, this is bad news.

Putin is replacing the incompetent DM Shoigu in favour of the far more ruthless intelligence officer (Nikolai Patrushev), who will now have an unspecified role.

This does not bode well for the future of the conflict.

Sounds like hell on earth down there.

Russia seems to have no moral code whatsoever.

This is new a new low even for them.

How to Escape From the Russian Army https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/27/world/asia/escape-from-russian-army.html?unlocked_article_code=1.200.zvB0.Bs1kMAdm92FL

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Wow. I wonder what happens if they try to defect to Ukraine. Might not be a whole lot better… dunno. What a :poop: show.

Ukraine destroyed an ammunition depot and Russia responds by killing children with cancer and pregnant women.

Meanwhile, France’s far-right National Rally party vows to pull back on Ukraine aid: https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/05/europe/france-le-pen-ukraine-mbappe-intl-cmd/index.html

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To me that news sounds less like they hate babies and more like they are losing the killer robot war.

I assume, soon, we’re going to discover why launching millions of armed autonomous drones is so horrifying, but for now it’s a refreshing alternative to blindly chucking missiles at cities and hoping you hit something.

Seizing/freezing Russia’s foreign exchange reserves was likely a very serious foreign policy blunder. Weaponizing the dollar’s reserve status was only ever destined to end the dollar’s reserve status. This is a serious oopsie that’s not getting the media attention it deserves IMO.

Earlier this year, it was additionally discussed formally seizing the assets (completely or partially) to further fund Ukraine’s military and/or its reconstruction.

And yet, that discussion appears to have simply… gone away. Bloomberg is reporting this week that may be because Saudi Arabia told the G-7 it opposed this idea and threatened to fire sale French and other European sovereign bonds in retaliation.

It turns out that bullies tend to be overconfident and eventually get themselves into a situation where they cannot successfully complete their bullying intentions. That cuts all ways, whether its Russia or NATO. Seeing how Russia was exposed to the whims of NATO likely struck a nerve with other global bullies like SA, Iran, and China. Oopsies.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-09/saudi-arabia-veiled-threat-to-g7-over-russia-assets

Eh, The Economist had an article on this last week. All this fearmongering about the dollar losing status meanwhile the Yuan is getting outcompeted by… Canadian dollars

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No one is arguing its a good thing. Now the narrative is more like “well, it’s happening but not really as big a deal as the alarmist takes would indicate.” That’s true, but we should have avoided it happening. The Biden admin failed in this regard.

No, the point is it isn’t happening in any material sense.

The fight to dethrone the dollar
https://econ.st/45WbUBH

Isn’t happening in any material sense yet, because its only just begun and it takes time. The consequences will not be as severe as the alarmist takes, which tends to be true as a general rule, but there will be consequences. The Economist knows this and the article is more about why it won’t be as bad as some fear, which I agree. Also I don’t see an author listed…

Economist is weirdly secretive about authors.

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One of these days! Yeah wake me up when it starts to move at all. If anything the dollar has become more embedded as the main reserve currency, as the article describes.

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Russia retreats the last of the Black Sea fleet from Crimea.

Ukraine reports 1/3 of the fleet has been disabled with 17 vessels destroyed or severely damaged. Ukraine won this naval standoff functionally without a navy.

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