So uh, do you guys think Putin will invade Ukraine or what

Am dying to see that movie in IMAX

https://www.yahoo.com/news/russia-awakes-biggest-attack-russian-115500955.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAJrRety_B2XdhXxA-kHzhLy89Zx74NbsSv6Z1-RWNzYeWNUym-zBnaRPte80_R-TcBWd_rJxKn-VMDU-Clfgdu9i5QI-ObmRk5rJLYBtc16Ewp42lhJwagB92dDuJLdvPJRxDwqx1LWvNR3VrLrxozel6BaYVUiniFUdUPK5Pa4g

Ukraine strikes back again. They seem to be continuing to hit non-civilian targets.

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It’s a dangerous move. I think everyone giving Ukraine arms to now has stipulated it’s for self defense. Smells of Ukrainian desperation.

Non-civilian targets could well be within the bounds of self-defense.

I mean, how many years is Ukraine expected to simply send men to die at the front-line of defense while never striking back?

I’m not versed enough to know what this means for the incoming supply of arms. I’ve read about self-defense stipulations but I can’t say how far that extends - if these were drones funded by Ukraine (albeit enabled by fungible money otherwise going to defense), does that violate arms for self-defense? I don’t know that they were, and I don’t have any answers anyway.

However this seems far less than what a justified response could be, and Ukraine is showing good restraint in only targeting things like oil refineries instead of dropping bombs in population centers. Reading a list of Ukrainian counterstrikes on Russian soil, a majority of confirmed attacks are on fuel depots, military bases, etc.

There are Russian intelligence claims of Ukrainian strikes on Russian population centers, and I’m guessing some of them are real and some aren’t. Most of the strikes in residential centers that seem likely real are in or surrounding Belgorod, which is an active combat zone. It makes sense that an active combat zone will have cases of accidental fire on civilians.

When Russia considers US weapons attacking Russia to be a US attack on Russia, it becomes a problem.

They are nuclear armed.

Yeah, I don’t discount that. It’s not fun to think about playing with nuclear fire. However, it’s also untenable to have a global superpower that can openly invade a neighboring country but don’t you dare ruffle a hair on a Russian head because we have nukes.

I’m not for a moment ignoring the fact that I could be vaporized with only a few seconds to think “what’s that?” I also don’t cast blame on Ukraine at all. Their attacks seem, at least largely, to be about crippling Russian offensive infrastructure or to destroy bridges carrying weapons and soldiers.

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Insurance featured in a news story on Putin’s “special military operation” (gift link):

https://www.wsj.com/finance/russia-seized-400-foreign-owned-jets-then-an-epic-insurance-fight-began-194c1ded?st=4jbq4ju3p96n0xo&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

IANAL: could leasing companies and/or their insurers try to grab some of the currently frozen Russian assets held by the West to compensate them for Russia absconding with their assets?

Not really as they are sovereign assets (vs corporate assets).

The EU & US are very hesitant to appropriate the assets (about c€400bn) because it would cause serious global problems. Other countries (with autocratic governments or corrupt ones) would then use that behavior as an excuse to appropriate foreign sovereign assets themselves.

Its very messy, and its going to take years for the cases to go through the courts.

Today’s NY Post is as creative as ever:

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The fact that the NY Post has a 500,000+ circulation is a blight upon the city of NY.

lol thats a funny cover

I will give them that

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The previously stalled situation regarding US aid for Ukraine has tilted the battlefield to give the Russians a military advantage. They have made a few territorial gains whike the GOP extremists held up the bill.

Seems that the US is giving Ukraine some pretty good upgrades this time around (including ATACM long-range missile systems).

They are definitely going to need them.

Even with the more sophisticated US and EU military support, its going to be very hard to overcome Russia’s war economy.

At this point, it definitely looks like the conflict will end up in a very nasty war of attrition that lasts for years.

I’m afraid that the next Ukraine aid bill will be even harder to pass than this one. Putin is counting on US voters tiring of the war.

Of course, the 2024 election has something to do with this. If Trump loses, that may weaken the anti-Ukraine faction for a year or so.

NYT reporting we slipped them a few of these last week and they hit a Russian airfield in Crimea already. LFG.

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If this means what I think it means, then :iatp: …wholeheartedly.

If it means Lincoln Financial Group, then not so much.

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I just read about that. Great news :slight_smile:

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I fully expect that if Trump wins, Ukraine aid will cease.

The Senate voted in a bill that they believe prevents the President from unilaterally withdrawing from NATO, but it’s yet to be tested and Trump can still undermine our NATO participation without needing withdrawal. Russia will take over a majority of Ukraine. Perhaps Russia will conquer all of it, or they will leave a portion of Ukraine to show that it wasn’t about conquest but actually was about ethnic history.

Then Trump will declare this a victory, touting that he is a president of peace while Putin secures his new territory.

Seems that Russia is now stepping up the harrasment of the Baltics by the mass jamming of GPS signals of flights from their Kaliningrad enclave.

This was a concern of mine last year when we travelled to Estonia/Finland, so we ended up taking the ferry from Tallinn to Helsinki vs a flight.

This might also affect international flights from the west flying directly to Helsinki.