Allegedly the pullback deal gives Prigozhin what he wanted: big changes in military leadership including replacing current Defense Minister, Sergei Shoigu and Army Chief of General Staff, Valery Gerasimov.
Allegedly the deal also involves an agreement to pull the vast majority of Wagner group out of Ukraine and redeploy them to their lucrative Africa assignments.
What’s the over/under on the timing of Prigozhin having an accidental fall from a window?
While wearing poisoned underpants.
Is it a bad thing that I think of pierogies every time I see his name
Given that he used to be called Putin’s chef, no.
Prigozhin reportedly is moving to Belarus. Kremlin is dropping all charges against him
Kremlin spokesperson denies any changes in defense leadership have taken place. Wagner fighters that didn’t take part in the insurrection will sign contracts with the ministry of defense. Not clear what will become of the ones that did participate, other than they won’t be charged.
That doesn’t preclude the reality that Putin reserves extrajudicial penalties for those who really upset him.
Vaguely I would assume a lot of money just changed hands?
Right wing media is suggesting the $6.2 billion accounting error in Ukraine aid went to Prigozhin. Ignoring the facts that a) that has the sign wrong, and b) it isn’t missing cash, just an incorrect valuation of physical goods that was sent to Ukraine.
There’s so much to unravel here that we may never know the full story.
We know there’s been a public beef between Prigozhin and the Ministry of Defense (MOD) for a while that has been escalating. We know that Shoigu made a recent order that all private forces had to sign contracts with the MOD, presumably because he wanted to rein in Wagner. Prigozhin alleges the MOD shelled a Wagner base causing “many casualties”. There is extremely limited evidence of this, so it could be completely made up. The alleged shelling is what dramatically blew up the rhetoric right before this insurrection began.
I have no doubt that big money is involved, if for no other reason that tying up Wagner in Ukraine is bad for business for Wagner. It cuts into their lucrative thugs for hire scheme in Africa in exchange for plundering natural resources.
Why did Prigozhin call off the dogs when he seemingly had a relatively uncontested path to Moscow? Why did Putin appear so feckless, when he typically crushes all dissent from a position of strength?
It will be interesting as more details leak out about the events of the past week.
I assume that anyone starting a coup from a distance is counting on support coming out of the woodwork. People have said privately that they wish Putin we gone, or at least the hard liners around him. Putin has supported Prigozhin in the past, so maybe he’ll take this chance to fire some people.
And, Prigozhin is looking for ordinary soldiers to say they won’t fight against him. When those two things didn’t happen, he knew he couldn’t pull it off.
Pretty much agree with this analysis:
What I’ve been reading indicates that Russia is offering the mercenaries contracts with their ministry of defense; not that they’re going to actually sign them en masse.
And I’ve not seen anything indicating what sort of numbers of Wagner merc’s are taking Russia up on the offer.
Good clarification, as Wagner members were expressing disappointment on Telegram with the pullback. Perhaps many will decline.
Per CNN:
"Intelligence officials briefed congressional leaders known as the Gang of Eight earlier this week concerning Wagner movements and equipment buildups near Russia, two of the people said.
US and Western intelligence officials saw signs Prigozhin was making preparations for such a move, including by massing weapons and ammunition, one western intelligence official and another person familiar with the intelligence said.
The official said they believe Prigozhin’s claims of an ammunition shortage for operations in Ukraine was deliberate deception, to help lay the groundwork for a potential military challenge to Russian leaders. "
Perhaps both the alleged ammo shortage and the MOD shelling of Wagner were not true.
One has to be skeptical of any claims coming out of Russia.
Putin looks a bit weaker after this but still has financial resources at his disposal. I expect Prigohzin is a few million dollars richer as a result of this.
Yep, what would life be like in the regular Russian army if you are a Wagner alum? Are commanders going to make sure you are put in your place?
And, those who don’t join will be trained, experienced fighters looking for a way to make a living outside the military. That may be difficult for them. That might lead to …? I’m not thinking armed rebellion, but I am thinking about ordinary crime.
And what about the Wagner groups in Africa? Do they disband and return to Russia, does Prigozhin keep going with those contracts? Does somebody else pick them up? I guess the most likely thing is that some higher ranking person in the Wagner group just makes the deal with Moscow and cuts Prigozhin out of the chain.
That’s a lot of rubles…Russian or Belarusian
These Kleptocrats have probably never seen a rouble let alone know what its value is. They only deal in hard currencies.