So uh, do you guys think Putin will invade Ukraine or what

ChatGPT summary:

Rebel Russian mercenaries, known as the Wagner forces and led by former Putin ally Yevgeny Prigozhin, are advancing towards Moscow after capturing the city of Rostov. Russian military forces have been unable to halt their progress, and a helicopter fired on the convoy as it approached Voronezh. President Vladimir Putin compared the situation to Russia’s Civil War and vowed to crush the armed mutiny. Prigozhin claims his men are on a “march for justice” to remove corrupt commanders. The situation poses a significant challenge to Putin’s rule, and the loyalty of Russia’s security forces is crucial in determining the outcome.

I do love that we would stage a massive world changing coup to keep folks from thinking about the president’s son’s hijinks.

I feel like general’s stage coups all the time throughout all of history.

Not sure how often it occurs in the middle of a war, or what happens next.

Maybe. It would require some people to act who have no idea how to act? Guess we’ll know when people start blowing each other up.

How long before Gaetz or MTG start tweeting that the Wagner group is on an ordinary tourist visit of Rostov, and now moving to see the sights in Moscow?

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Seems like Prighozin has achieved tactical surprise (if we can call it that).

Most of the Russian military is bogged down in Ukraine so the military forces in the rest of the country are heavily depleted (and likely not the best trained folks either). He is leading a force of about 10k mercenaries in his march to Moscow, who are arguably better trained than most Russian troops they are facing.

They are predicting he could reach Moscow by tonight (Saturday), as he is only up against militia and hastily drawn up barricades along the way (with the heavy weapons Wagner has these won’t really slow him down).

Am starting to think there is method to Prighozin’s current “madness” and someone inside the Kremlin is very likely feeding him information about military and militia movements. The timing of all of this is too coincidental.

Its highly likely that Putin has left Moscow so think about the symbolism of Prighozin and Wagner rolling into Moscow and claiming they are “liberating” it.

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This was what I thought might be the case Friday night: i. e. this was just lies and Russia would intensify Ukraine attacks. The happenings today, even if not totally accurate, confirm that Putin is in some trouble. Anything that hastens the end of the war in Ukraine is positive imo.

Putin was shoring up relations with Cuba last week so that might not be a bad place for him to retire. Nice beaches.

Well, there is usually no pension in the dictator business.

You normally end up jailed or dead.

Tough to say with Putin. He probably has access to enormous financial resources but I just don’t see him living it up in Cuba as a deposed dictator.

Plus, he knows full well the western world will come after him for what he has done in Ukraine. I do not see Cuba protecting him.

Not even China or NK would be viable either for him.

And Putin knows that. If he is losing the battle, he will leave if he can. Staying in Russia is a 100% losing proposition but at least he has a chance somewhere else. “So you say there’s a chance”

I don’t see any good outcomes from this.

Pretty much every European media outlet is now tracking the situation live.

Putin has definitely flown the coop. What a coward.

Peskov is another guy who deserves to rot in jail for eternity.

Can’t Russia just get with the times and become a free market democracy and then everyone gets rich or something? I don’t understand this dictator shit and why dictatoring a poor ass country is more preferable than being rich.

In order to answer that question you need to understand Russian history.

Its usually not something covered in the US (education or media).

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Haven’t seen a confirmation from the Wagner group on this yet

Source Telegram post translated. I saw it from 2 separate sources on Twitter that have been generally reliable.

How does it benefit Prighozin though?

They military and FSB (not to mention Putin) will come after him now.

They have been made to look bad to the entire population. Its not something they can hide now.

It gives him the appearance of looking reasonable to the outside world.

And I think this will matter far more than any perception of him from the current powers-that-be.

I also can’t help thinking that it might make him look better to the Russian hoi polloi.

ETA: the headline of this preview is the news of Wagner pulling back. The body of the preview is a little misleading as its referring to comments Putin made earlier about the insurrectionists.

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That does kind of make sense.

With this detente, Prighozin avoids being completely sidelined (which is what the military and FSB wanted), while not having to engage in a near suicidal mission (I think he could have gotten to Moscow but he would not have lasted very long).

So you can sort of say he has solidified his place at the political table in Russia via public opinion.

Still, its a dangerous play for him. Not sure how long this detente will last.