So uh, do you guys think Putin will invade Ukraine or what

Interesting article that explores (but doesn’t completely answer) Prigozhin’s motivations (supposedly free link):

https://www.wsj.com/articles/wagner-prigozhin-putin-mutiny-moscow-march-7072d6ea?st=fba8jp8b3uq7m4v&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

I started another thread as I didn’t see the discussion was already here. Think the other thread is still useful, this isn’t over yet…

I feel like I must be just not seeing the existing thread on this, but, it’s been quite the weekend.

Not every day there’s almost a coup in a nuclear superpower, at least one would hope…

While a distinct topic, I think it’s better contained in the established thread as it’s inherently connected.

If you strongly feel differently, let’s chat. :slight_smile:

I would take anything that Lukashenko says with a grain of salt…..

That’s like the time I convinced sphinx not to beat up Mike Tyson.

3 Likes

Twitter, and apparently German press, are reporting that Surovkin and his top aide have been arrested for supporting Prigozhin. Surovkin was in charge of Russian operations in Ukraine for about 3 months at the end of 2022. Another Russian general is in critical condition after a freak accident.

The fallout has begun.

2 Likes

iswydt

Did the freak accident involve some polonium?

An interesting read on a guy that decided to investigate the Nord Stream pipeline explosions on his own.

Putin’s comments (in bold below) in respect of the $ billions that Prigohzin companies received in the past year was amusing:

I hope that while doing so they didn’t steal anything, or stole not so much

WSj reporting that Prigozhin had planned to kidnap top Russian military leaders Shoigu and Gerasimov. The FSB got wind of the plot, which forced Prigozhin to change his timeline and launch the march to Moscow earlier than planned

Oh, was it sabotage? I’d not paid attention after reading something very soon after the incident by a piping expert who gave a convincing argument for bad operations. tl;dr, but I got a laugh when scanning at a statement saying failure at a seam was proof of sabotage. Seems to me that failure at a weak spot makes it more likely not sabotage.

Yes, I saw some stories at the time indicating that mismanagement could have been the cause of the explosions. At this point, sabotage seems more likely. No idea who would have done it, but Ukraine would seem to have the strongest motive.

Given all the early finger pointing after the explosions, factual information in the media has been hard to find. That’s part of the reason I found the article interesting, even though I think the guy that went on this search is a crackpot.

The current state of the world

1 Like

I wonder how this affects the Xi Jinping and Putin relationship. I’d imagine Putin lost a bit of luster. Like maybe " this Vladimir guy is all hat and no cattle."

2 Likes

Makes an even better figurehead for China to prop up and goad the west with…

“This Vladimir guy is all dragon dance and no kung fu.”?

1 Like

Vladimir is all grain and no vodka.

1 Like

Vladimir is no brain and all zombie.

Did I do that right? :grimacing: