Lots of conflicting reports coming in right now. Some people saying Russian forces started firing on Wagner forces and have seized Wagner HQ in St. Petersburg, don’t know if true.
Take out Wagner, I don’t see Russia being able to sustain aggressive momentum w/o resorting to using tactical nuclear strikes on Ukraine.
Its hard to fathom someone actually using a nuke, no matter how crazy they are.
And i really cant conceive of what the reaction would be. Maybe full on conventional war right in russia by every westernized country. Basically flatten/steamroll the entire country. I dunno.
Did not realize Prigohzin controlled 25,000 fighters. If indeed that many, this is serious stuff.
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Seems like a true coup attempt is underway. I imagine it fails, but it may get interesting.
text
Russia Issues Arrest Warrant
for Wagner Chief on Charges
of Mutiny
Jun 23, 2023 09:25AM
Russian authorities stepped up security in Moscow and issued an
arrest warrant for Yevgeny Prigozhin, the owner of the Wagner
paramilitary group, on charges of mutiny after he called on his
troops to oust the country’s military leadership.
Prigozhin, a one-time confidant of President Vladimir Putin, called
for retaliation after claiming that the Russian military killed “an
enormous amount” of his troops in Friday’s strikes on Wagner
camps. The military denied these strikes had occurred, and there
was no independent evidence to back up his claim.
As Russian soldiers in armored personnel carriers secured key
installations in Moscow, leading Russian military commanders who
had worked with Wagner urged the group’s fighters to stop before
it was too late. “The last thing we need is to unleash a real civil
war inside the country. Come back to your senses,” urged Lt. Gen.
Vladimir Alekseyev, the deputy chief of Russian military
intelligence.
Prigozhin said his troops were on a “march for justice” toward the
southern Russian city of Rostov, headquarters of the military for
Russia’s southern region that also oversees the fighting in
Ukraine. He said young conscripts on the ground had offered no
resistance but that one Russian helicopter had launched a strike
on his column. There was no immediate independent confirmation.
Video posted on social media showed armored vehicles deployed in
central Moscow, including on the street where the Federation
Council, the upper house of the Russian Parliament, and the
Prosecutor General’s Office are located.
“The evil that the military leadership of the country brings forward
must be stopped. They have forgotten the word justice, and we will
return it,” Prigozhin said in an audio recording posted on
Wagner’s social media Friday. “Anyone attempting resistance will
be considered a threat and immediately destroyed. This includes
all the checkpoints on our path and any aircraft above our heads.”
Friday’s events showed the depth of political crisis inside Russia
after 16 months of grueling war marked by a series of military
setbacks. Pressure is rising on Putin to squelch any threat that
Prigozhin now poses to his power, and to Russia’s ability to
continue waging the war. Putin, so far, hasn’t made any public
statements about the drama unfolding in Russia.
A former convict who grew close to Putin after serving as his
caterer in St. Petersburg, Prigozhin has used the war in Ukraine to
become one of Russia’s most powerful and popular personalities,
with tens of thousands of battle-hardened troops on his payroll.
Wagner group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin lashed out at Russian
military leaders in a video released on Friday.
Photo: Prigozhin Press Service/Associated Press
He thrived in Putin’s top-down authoritarian state where the
Russian president controlled underlings by pitting them against
one another. Wagner troops were the only Russian forces able to
advance in Ukraine in nearly a year, taking the city of Bakhmut
last month, and he has garnered a wide following for his firebrand,
populist rhetoric against Russian elites.
He has also established recruiting centers across Russia. Wagner’s
ranks include many former members of Russia’s military,
particularly from the special forces and other selective units, as
well as fighters recruited in Russian prisons with a promise of
amnesty. The group has a cultlike rigidity, and practices executing
deserters and traitors with a sledgehammer.
For the past several months, Prigozhin has been focusing his
vitriol on Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Armed
Forces Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov. Earlier on Friday, he
accused Shoigu of leading Russia into war in Ukraine on a false
narrative in order to get awards and a promotion in rank.
Gen. Sergei Surovikin, the former commander of Russian troops in
Ukraine who, unlike Shoigu and Gerasimov, has been repeatedly
praised by Prigozhin, made a late-night video appeal asking
Wagner’s troops not to obey the group’s owner.
“We are one blood. We are warriors,” he said. “The enemy is only
waiting for our internal political situation to flare up. Stop your
columns. Resolve all the problems in a peaceful way.”
Russia’s Federal Security Service, also known as FSB, called on
Wagner’s troops to detain Prigozhin.
Putin has been informed about the situation around Prigozhin and
all necessary measures are being taken, Kremlin spokesman
Dmitry Peskov said, according to state news media.
National Security Council spokesman Adam Hodge said the U.S. is
“monitoring the situation and will be consulting with allies and
partners on these developments.” President Biden has been
briefed on the developments, Hodge said.
1
Police officers patrolled a street in central Moscow on Saturday.
Photo: Alexander Ryumin/TASS/Zuma Press
Over the past several years, Prigozhin turned Wagner into a highly
skilled military force that assisted Moscow’s goals around the
world, from eastern Ukraine in 2014 to Syria, Libya, Mali and the
Central African Republic.
By Prigozhin’s own admission, Wagner lost 20,000 troops in the
monthslong battle for Bakhmut that left the Ukrainian city in ruins.
As the most combat-efficient Russian unit in Ukraine, Wagner has
played a pivotal role in the war. It has already briefly clashed with
regular Russian forces near Bakhmut this month, detaining the
commander of a Russian brigade whom Prigozhin accused of
having mined the road used by Wagner when it pulled back from
the city.
The Russian Ministry of Defense tried earlier this month to assert
control over Wagner, which has its own tanks, multiple-launch
rocket systems and aircraft, by demanding all paramilitary groups
and private military companies sign formal contracts to come
under the ministry’s control.
Prigozhin said that Wagner was ready to find a way to comply with
the order.
“But seeing that we are unbroken, they launched missile strikes on
our rear bases. An enormous amount of our combat comrades have
died. We will decide how to respond to this crime. The next step is
ours,” he said. “This is not a military coup, this is a march of
justice. Our actions do not impede the troops.”
He added that Putin’s administration, the government, the police
and the Russian National Guard will function as normal “once we
finish.”
“Justice in the armed forces will be restored, and after that justice
in all of Russia,” Prigozhin said.
In Friday’s recordings, Prigozhin said that he has 25,000 men
under arms but also considers the entire army, and the entire
Russian society, his strategic reserve. Russian commentators
reacted to this turn of events with shock.
2
“God save Russia,” posted Oleg Tsaryov, a former Ukrainian
lawmaker who has been a prominent Russian politician since 2014.
Earlier in the day, Prigozhin said Shoigu lied to Russians and to
Putin when he told a “story about the crazy aggression from the
Ukrainian side and the plans to attack us with the entire NATO
bloc.” In an implied criticism of Putin, he added that Ukrainian
President Volodymyr Zelensky would have agreed to a deal if the
Kremlin had deigned to negotiate.
Could be all disinformation as well (would not put it past the Russians), but it does seem that Wagner is starting to enter Rostov (small southern Russian city)
I assume its for cover given that they are possibly being targeted by Russian forces (it is unclear but it looks like its still only a small minority).
I don’t see how the Russian Army stops Ukraine without them.
I am concerned Putin is dying. Power vacuums are really bad in authoritarian regimes.
Things I’ve seen on Twitter that I find plausible:
- Because it was late on a Friday night, many people not on active duty were drunk, reducing Russia’s ability to respond
- Whether it was alcohol or self-preservation, a large portion of security forces (I’ve seen claims of 40%) didn’t respond to their summons
- Russian border forces had orders not to let Wagner group back into the country. Those orders were ignored, again I’m assuming self-preservation
- Wagner group has surrounded Southern army headquarters in Rostov
- Response so far from Russia seems to be FSB, not ministry of defense. I don’t know if this is a reflection of who Putin trusts or a potential breakdown of loyalties.
- Right wing Twitter thinks this wouldn’t happen if Trump were President, and it is also a ploy to distract from Hunter Biden.
Just off the wire:
Latvia has now closed off its border to Russian citizens and started fortifying its presence on the ground.
I assume the other baltic states will start shutting down their borders as well.
Update: Estonia and Lithuania have also closed off their borders.
Looks like the situation is real and internal Russian commanders are basically waiting to pick a side.
Seems that Wagner is both fortifying Rostov and rolling some elite troops towards Moscow.
The Chechen commander had declared loyalty to Putin, and Chechen troops are moving towards Rostov
Did he commit?
Sounds like he was keeping his options open as he was not engaging Wagner (but declaring his support for Putin).
Its hard to tell what is factual or BS now. So much disinformation flying around as the PR wars are now in full swing.
Just declared his support for Putin. AFAIK he has not engaged Wagner troops, but it seems Chechen troops are moving towards Rostov.
Seems clear that a Wagner column has traveled over halfway from Rostov to Moscow with minimal resistance.
never wage a land war in Asia
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I mean Eurasia I guess
Michael McFaul, former US ambassador to Russia, wrote this back in February
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Thats a really good article. He gives a really good summary of the backstory.
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