Random Thoughts

Pulling weeds hurts my back. Like… need to take difficult-to-get-hydrocodone and get a chiropractic adjustment hurt, not just “oh, I’m slightly sore” hurt.

Using an arc trainer and nautilus equipment does not.

It’s literally cheaper to pay someone to pull the weeds as the savings on my medical expenses more than covers the cost of paying someone to pull the weeds… if I can find someone.

your soulmate is yourself

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I haven’t paid to use a gym in a few years. There is one in our office building that we can use for free, and now that I don’t go into the office I just work out at home.

Most of the gyms I’ve used have been in the office or walking distance from my home. I remember a couple of years where I had to drive to a gym, and of course I’d get a closer spot if available but would not cut anyone off to make it happen. If it’s freezing and/or raining why would anyone want to park a long way from the healthclub entrance?

And anyone who lives down where I live knows that most of the summer the weather is hot and humid so I pay others to suffer through it. Their skin can handle sun much better than mine anyway.

My son’s school had an open house thing this evening. Hired a DJ even. At some point the DJ played Pumped Up Kicks. Bold.

Maybe less of a random thought. I’m gonna leave it here anyway.

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Whenever I see a sign for taxis I wonder what is actually being plotted on the t axis.

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What has been seen cannot be unseen

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My 2017 Civic EX that I bought for $20K is 4 years old and has 40K miles on it.
If I were to sell it: (which I’m not really looking to do)

Kelley Blue Book thinks I should get $16,848 from a trade in, and $18,317 from a private party.
Edmunds thinks I should only get $13,580 for it, but Carmax supposedly wants to buy it for $17,600.
TrueCar says 16,375

I’m surprised the numbers are that difference and that, possibly due to market conditions that i don’t totally understand, my car might have only lost 10%-20% of its value in four years if the three highest numbers are to be believed at all.

That being said, I really liked the options that came on the EX at the time and I think they are considerably more expensive now. A new Civic EX is 26K on the dealer website.

Yes, what you see makes sense. I think the edmunds number is the one that is the most wrong.

It shows that most of the conventional thinking about car ownership is outdated, like 1) cars depreciate 15% as soon as you drive them off the lot 2) a 3 year old car is only worth half of what you paid for it, and 3) It is better to buy a used car to let someone else take the early year depreciation hit.

Your data is evidence that these 3 “conventional wisdoms” are no longer true, at least in regards to quality brands that have reputations for longevity and reliability

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A CarMax in Minnesota is listing a 2017 Honda Civic EX (same exact car) with 44K miles for $20,998.
I bought mine new for $19,400 (near the end of the model year). That’s crazy!

I wonder if there is a car shortage or if that car chip issue is to blame. I went out onto Ford sites and a new smaller Ford car is nowhere to be found locally

I’ve read about car shortages - don’t know if that’s still the case or if the market has stabilized. Certainly demand is up as people continue to move from the cities to the burbs and those still in the cities are nervous about mass transit. Plus we’re going through a period of inflation.

I paid 11k for a new boat about a dozen years ago. I’m told I could get 10 to 12k for it now.
Unfortunately to replace it new again I’m looking at 25 to 30.

Car shortages are still on. I think the basics of it are:

Manufacturers are having a hard time making new cars (chip shortage). So they are charging more for new cars.

When the price of new cars goes up, some shoppers will look for a substitute good: used cars. So used car prices also go up.

Couple that with high demand from the reasons you state plus a pretty hot economy, and presto. Prices are insane.

I have said for years that Hondas straight-line depreciate for the first 15 years or so on roughly a 20 year schedule. That’s not quite right as they do depreciate a little more the first two years, but not that much more. The market for 2-5 year old Hondas is solid.

And all cars, both new and used, are selling at a premium these days due to scarcity.

Regardless, I am a buy-and-hold consumer of both stocks and cars.

To see something funny, go to autotrader.com and look up prices for used Toyota FJ Cruisers.

Toyota stopped selling those off-road worthy SUVs few years ago. Very good used ones might list for upwards of 130% or more of the original purchase prices new. They originally went for 30k to 35k-ish, but some now list for 50k with low mileage. Used, 8 years old with 100,000 miles might actually go for 100% of the original purchase price.

They say that man plans and G-d laughs. But when a man planned the Panama Canal, G-d didn’t actually laugh until he saw the resulting palindrome.

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The dog kept shoving her nose in the Amazon box I opened. I felt:

  • amused she was so interested
  • annoyed she kept getting in my way
  • guilty there was nothing for her in it
  • concerned she might be spoiled
  • sad she’d once been discarded
  • happy of her new life with us

Emotions are complicated.

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I’ve been watching some calculus videos on Youtube from “3Blue1Brown”
They are very well done, and I think to myself this I would have rather watched this than sit in a traditional college classroom.

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He makes very excellent videos. He used to work for khan academy and did good stuff for them too.

He hasn’t put out a whole lot recently though.

He did put out some “lockdown math” videos at the beginning of the pandemic. His linear algebra series is a really good addition to the standard course - I recommend that to my students all the time. Also found his explanation of blockchain and Bitcoin to be pretty accessible - I point people to that when they ask me wth is Bitcoin.