Normal assumptions are for normal times.
Or at minimum, it should require success.
Pretty much.
I’m tired of the constant fearmongering and outrage machines. Instead of speculating about how Trump is going to somehow become dictator of the US and can’t be stopped… How about we all just have a glass of nice whiskey, maybe nibble on some good cheese, and try to chill for a month?
but he is doing his best right now to become dictator?
also, with the COVID cases rising and my state now in uncontrolled spread AGAIN and that being Trump’s damn fault, i’m not sure chilling is an option here.
If you don’t want to read what we’re speculating on, then by all means don’t. It’s unclear to me that anybody else should censor themselves because a few people are tired of thinking about certain things. Some of us have good reason to be outraged.
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I don’t expect anyone to censor themselves. I made a suggestion for saving yourself from a heart attack, and expressed my own opinion on the topic. But if you want to live in a constant state of fight-or-flight, go ahead.
Aaargh. How do you split a quote? I totally mucked this up.
yes, i’m of the opinion that the uncontrolled spread in the US is due to Trump’s incompetence. I’ve been pretty much consistent on this opinion.
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What’s your reasoning for the spread in Europe? Is that also Trump’s fault?
yes, cases will rise. i am under the impression that we are doing worse than europe. cases will spread slower if people would social distance and wear a damn mask. trump has discouraged this and has politicized mask wearing and has held super spreader events. do you deny that trump’s super spreader events have caused a spread of this virus?
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Europe is rising faster than the US (and the Americas). Warmer climate regions are showing slow growth, while regions going into winter are experiencing acceleration. Population density plays a big part in it too, though.
US has the highest new case count, but we’re also a lot bigger than most other countries out there. When it’s normalized by population, we’re definitely not great, but we’re not off the charts either. For the most part, throughout the entirety of this pandemic, the US has been more or less in line with Europe.
Most of the progression of COVID is driven by the virus itself and climate and geographic factors. Trump is an idiot who says dumb things, and some of his followers are dumb about it too. But I really don’t think Trump’s blowhard bitching has had nearly as much of an affect on people’s behaviors as the State governors and City mayors have.
I don’t see Helena’s post to quote it, but my take is that sure… of course cases would be rising right now if Clinton or someone else was POTUS. But from a much lower starting point.
I earlier speculated that roughly half of the Covid-19 cases in the US are due to Trump’s incompetence and half were unavoidable. I’m not sure that 50.00% is the precise figure, but it seemed reasonable when comparing with other developed countries, even adjusting for things like population density, age, and obesity levels… although obviously precisely how key each of those factors is will impact your view. Maybe you’d come up with 40% or 60% instead.
I still think half is in the right ballpark. So under President Clinton we’d be looking at half as many cases / half as many deaths and current cases would be rising as part of the predicted fall resurgence, but still WAY lower than what we’re actually facing under President Trump. 
Lol. I don’t even know who you used to be. So… bye? I guess?
I actually don’t know either. If anyone does, I’m curious to know, actually. Shoot me a PM.
Hard to make a good guess. I don’t think Trump’s shenanigans would have made a lot of difference with NY at the very beginning. Maybe a little bit, but it’s hard to say.
There’s a mid-June spike in there, that is something that could probably have been avoided. I’m not sure how much of that is directly attributable to Trump though - it coincided with protests as well as several states lifting their lockdowns and opening restaurants back up. It’s possible that Trump had some influence on those state’s decisions, but ultimately is was up to the governors, and many of them are NOT Trump supporters. It’s not like he could force them to open back up.
My ballpark estimate is that perhaps 30% to 40% of the cases could have been avoided, but that would have required prohibiting protests. And I don’t think that would have been a reasonable thing to do.
I probably should not say if others didn’t figure it out. 
I just figured it out. People’s posting styles don’t really change.
refusing to provide a federal bailout likely pushed these states into re-opening. i’m not sure how you could entirely ignore the discouraging and politicizing of mask wearing and social distancing as being a non-issue here.
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