According to Monmouth, 17% of Americans polled still see a path for Biden to be removed and Trump to be installed as supreme leader before the next Presidential election.
The question:
Some people say there is still a path to reverse the electoral vote count from 2020 and replace Biden with Trump before the next presidential election. Do you feel that there is definitely a path to do this, probably a path, probably not a path, or definitely not a path?
| Definitely | 6% |
|---|---|
| Probably | 11% |
| Probably not | 21% |
| Definitely not | 56% |
| (VOL) Don’t know | 6% |
| (n) | (794) |
Is a coup a path? This is why I’d be horrible for polling.
Seems that the deplorable count has been cut in half.
Well the coup is in the past. The question is “still a path”. So I guess form your answer if you think another coup may still happen before the next election
May happen covers a lot. Very very low likelihood.
Fair enough. I do think there was a small chance that the coup could have succeeded on 1/6. That’s with the benefit of hindsight, as no way would I have guessed that on 1/5. I put the coup chances close enough to zero now that I’d say definitely not.
Back in June I posted a link a 2021 survey above with this one:
29% of Republicans believe Trump will be reinstated as President this year according to a poll from Politico
Might still line up pretty well with the 17% of all Americans that think a path to supreme leader before the next election is definite or probable
Those numbers reconcile.
How about this strategy. Midyear 2024, Biden gets his comeuppance. The results are overturned, Trump is reinstated as President. Finishes out his second term, and is therefore ineligible to run in 2024.
If Trump claims he was elected in 2020, it disqualifies him from being able to be elected again, per the 22nd amendment. That works for me.
Technically if he serves less than half of a term that doesn’t count. Although based on the claim that he actually IS the POTUS, as in, right now, then I guess that would count? Maybe not if no one who matters believes it. Dunno.
I’m kinda thinking he’s not going to run again. Maybe that’s wishful thinking, but I’m not sure his ego can handle losing twice.
IANAL or constitutional scholar but here’s the 22nd:
Amendment XXII
Section 1
No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice, and no person who has held the office of President, or acted as President, for more than two years of a term to which some other person was elected President shall be elected to the office of the President more than once. But this Article shall not apply to any person holding the office of President, when this Article was proposed by the Congress, and shall not prevent any person who may be holding the office of President, or acting as President, during the term within which this Article becomes operative from holding the office of President or acting as President during the remainder of such term.
Section 2
This article shall be inoperative unless it shall have been ratified as an amendment to the Constitution by the legislatures of three-fourths of the several States within seven years from the date of its submission to the States by the Congress.
So the clear meaning is you can’t be elected more than twice, regardless of how much of either term you served. Imagine this scenario: Elected, serve 1 mo, impeached, convicted, removed from office. Next election reelected, serve 1 mo, impeached again, convicted again, removed from office. Serves 2 mos, and per the 22nd, not eligible for election again.
The more than 2 years of a term qualification applies only to someone serving as president who wasn’t elected as president. Theoretically, if Trump was “elected” in 2020, and Biden is elected in 2024, Biden wouldn’t be eligible to be elected in 2028.
Yeah, I think it would hinge on the hypothetical reason he was reinstated.
From a practical standpoint, I doubt that someone who has served less than 6 years as POTUS is going to be prevented from running again on a technicality.
This conversation is reminding me of a Tom Clancy novel (actually - I think it was the end of one and then into another - I don’t remember which ones, and I may have some details wrong)
Spoiler
- VP does something to make the Pres want to get rid of him
- Pres decides to make Jack Ryan VP
- JR is late to the meeting at the capitol where this gets voted on
- Right after the vote a plane crashes into the capitol building, killing Pres and most of congress
- JR survives and is now president after mere minutes of being made VP
- Former VP claims something wasn’t right with the vote and that he is actually Pres
- Former VP sues JR
- In the suit, Former VP refers to JR as “President Ryan”
- JR’s lawyer uses that to prove that the Former VP actually believes that JR is legitimately the president
- Suit gets dismissed
So - has Trump ever referred to Biden as “President Biden”? If so, maybe we don’t have to worry about any of this…
If Trump were to die of a heart attack tomorrow, is there any natural successor to be lunatic leader to run in 2024,?
I’m thinking no. I’m thinking this is probably one of those rare cases where someone dropping dead is a net positive.
I think they’d try really hard to get don jr. to fill his shoes, but I agree with you that, no, he’s not the same level of lunatic.
My concern is that an actual competent evil person would take his place. Lunatic was bad enough. Now that he’s got the ball rolling someone could run with it and do some real damage. Trump is bad. Trumpism in the hands of a non-idiot would be much worse.
I don’t have a name for that person though. It would be nice if it all just went away.
I’m not concerned about that, he has a cult of personality, those go away when the leader goes away.