Curious where this will land me. But also confirms something I have been thinking about lately in terms of these massive tournaments. MPs, as imperfect as they are in normal circumstances is really the only fair way to do these 10,000+ person tournaments. Because not everyone will play the same hands, and so if one person has more 1NT opportunities and another has more game or even slam opportunities, the results are unfairly weighted. Around the middle, probably all washes out, but for the extreme scores, there are likely many table combinations that have no chance to achieve a score high enough to win or place very high.
Yes, you missed two, sort of. Mainly my fault. I usually issue challenges after 8 pm, but I realized a few days ago that even though I said I reissued an individual challenge to you and a group challenge, I hadn’t. So I issued those at about 2 PM eastern time, expiring 2 PM eastern time today. I’ll try to be consistent about evenings (eastern time) from now on.
NN wins the group challenge with +10.00, by 9.01. I lose to procrastinator by 7 and to NN by 31. (And maybe was lucky that AA didn’t play, since I gave a away a 0-chance vul game when with KJ of diamonds over dummy I played the J when dummy played the Q because I was expecting dummy to play small (expecting it for no good reason. Partner had showed out on the trick so dummy’s play couldn’t matter unless I did something stupid. So Q was no worse than small, and paid off big when I was hopeless.)
Individual vs AA and group challenge reissued. Individuals vs procrastinator and NN to be reissued tomorrow.
:swear:
Don’t look at the spoiler if you are playing the Country vs Country championship and haven’t finished, since you might get this board.
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Nice hand. You’re in fourth seat, only your side vul.
LHO passes, CHO opens 1H, RHO passes. And you?
Seems to me that the only things to consider are 1NT, 2D and 5D. (Or perhaps 3D, invitational. 4D would be a splinter.)
How bad a choice can 5D be? Unfortunately, the description of a potential 5D bid is “biddable diamonds” but surely it must in fact mean “super-biddable diamonds”. Or so I would think.
So I bid 5D, and partner bid 5H. Well that’s terrible, and maybe I should pass, But I try 6D. And he bids 6H! Should I bid 7D and risk going down 1 more at 7H than I would be at 6H? So I pass. And partner has
spoilertext
I’ll find out tomorrow what others did. My preliminary result, for 6H down 4, was -400. 5D is a reasonable contract, looking at our two hands, but wouldn’t have made.
6H -4 on my auction was by far the most common result, 22 of 98 times the board was played (the traveler shows that auction, but perhaps all I’m sure of is the contract and result). Only 5 players went plus, 4 in 3NT, 1 in 5 diamonds, all 5 (the traveler suggests) started 1H-2D. Those who continued with 7D in the position I faced heard 7H from CHO. You could stop in 6D by bidding 6D over 1H.
Your commentary is one I have heard about IMP pairs even at nationals, which is more boards and fewer pairs. If you look at the past winners, it will extend into names you don’t see in the winners circle of other national events.
Similar, but less extreme, things can happen at MPs. You can get a board where 90%+ of the field opens 1NT, gets raised to 3NT, and takes an obvious 10 tricks, while somebody else gets a board with many choices and a wide variety of scores.
Another thing I often wonder about in those huge tournaments is what my goal should be. For example, if my goal is to maximize my chances of coming in first, I need to take actions that lower my expected value but increase my variance, because 80% games don’t come from solid play down the middle. I usually opt for solid play down the middle though.
I would bid 2D. I admit that might not make sense since my plan is to just keep bidding diamonds at every turn, hopefully ending in 5D.
Even though logically it should not work this way, I have this thought that if I let CHO bid hearts 3 times, and I bid 5D, it (is that right pronoun for a robot?) will have gotten in out of its system and will let me play it there, contrasted to where if I bid 5D directly, it will want to correct with some hand like it actually had (even though it clearly should not).
Interesting. Most major tournaments are IMPs, right? But I thought most tournaments everyone plays the same boards. I guess at some level of competition that becomes impossible?
Fair point, and makes sense. But the disparate results at MPs seems less lopsided than the difference in IMPs between a successful and failed 1x contract vs game vs slam.
Totally. I generally play “my best”, but I likely take some risks for this reason. Or at least if I am having a good run, then I push for a top top score.
57 / 18,023
Arguably, the most prestigious events are team matches scored at imps. However, almost all pairs tournaments are matchpoints.
Looks like I missed the declare-only, unless I forgot to issue it. Anyway, I’m reissuing individual challenges to procrastinator and NN tonight, and the declare-only tomorrow.
ETA: oops. The challenge against NN is for only 8 boards.
procrastinator wins the regular challenge with +11.75, by 1.75. I beat AA by 22. Both reissued
Beat NN by 4 (8 boards), procrastinator by 15. Both reissued
Declare-only matchpoint challenge end time maybe surprising: 12:24 AM (eastern) on 12/15
I win the regular challenge with +11.25, by 5.50. I beat AA by 1. Both reissued
I was up by 1 heading into the 16th board, felt the pressure and blew it!
Beat procrastinator by 14. Lose by 2 to NN, 4-2 with only 3 swings, all just overtricks or undertricks. Reissued
NN wins the declare-only with 61.72%, by 4.69%. NN also wins the regular challenge with 12.75, by 8.75. I beat AA by 14. Declare-only reissued. Regular and AA to be reissued tomorrow
Done. I beat procrastinator by 10 and tie NN 10-10. Those two to be reissued tomorrow.
NN wins the declare-only with 58.59%, by 7.29%. Will be reissued later tonite.
I win the regular challenge with +34.25, by 8.50. I beat AA by 26. Those to be reissued tomorrow.
Regular challenge and vs AA reissued.
Win by 33 vs procrastinator. Lose by 1 (ouch) vs NN. Both will be reissued tomorrow