Bridge: 2023 MSC discussion

                       A     B     C     D     E     F       G     H
procrastinator        2S     P    3H    1N    6C    4S      3S    S2
oirg                   P    2S    4H    1N    6C    4S      4H    DQ
SW                    2S    2S    2S    2N    5C    4S      3H    S2
ST                     P    3D    3H    1N    6C    4S      3S    DA
BTDT                                                                
NN                                                                  
veni vidi vici        2S    3D    3H     P    5C    4S      3S    DQ

Leading               2S          3H    1N    6C    4S      3S      

Now a leader on 6 of 8.

A) Pass. Go for +200
B) Pass. My diamonds make me optimistic, so I’m not a minimum.
C) 3H. I need four hearts to splinter, but I think I have a good hand.
D) 1NT. Surely looks more notrumpy than takeout.
E) 5C. Keep bidding my pattern. 6C is the only other bid I consider.
F) 5C. I want to cuebid. If I start with 5C now, I can cuebid again over partner’s expected 5H.
G) 3C. I don’t know how to investigate slam, but 3C seems like the most natural start.
H) S2. Looking at other’s responses, the DQ looks interesting.

                       A     B     C     D     E     F       G     H
procrastinator        2S     P    3H    1N    6C    4S      3S    S2
oirg                   P    2S    4H    1N    6C    4S      4H    DQ
SW                    2S    2S    2S    2N    5C    4S      3H    S2
ST                     P    3D    3H    1N    6C    4S      3S    DA
BTDT                                                                
NN                     P     P    3H    1N    5C    5C      3C    S2
veni vidi vici        2S    3D    3H     P    5C    4S      3S    DQ

Leading                           3H    1N          4S      3S    S2

NN gives us a very narrow leader on one of the previously unresolved ones, but creates ties on two others. On the bright side, if BTDT matches anyone on any of the three open ones, it will create a leader there.

As a practical matter, if he matches anyone on H, H will become clearer. (If he matches the spade 2, that then has 4 votes. If he votes for either diamond A or diamond Q, then “diamond honor” has 4 compared to only 3 for spade 2. 3 for diamond Q + 1 for diamond A would be pretty good evidence for diamond Q. 2 for each, would need more thought.

A) Pass
B) Pass
C) 3H
D) 1N
E) 6C
F) 6H
G) 4H
H) Spade 2

From ST via e-mail

                       A     B     C     D     E     F       G     H
procrastinator        2S     P    3H    1N    6C    4S      3S    S2
oirg                   P    2S    4H    1N    6C    4S      4H    DQ
SW                    2S    2S    2S    2N    5C    4S      3H    S2
ST                     P    3D    3H    1N    6C    4S      3S    DA
BTDT                   P     P    3H    1N    6C    6H      4H    S2
NN                     P     P    3H    1N    5C    5C      3C    S2
veni vidi vici        2S    3D    3H     P    5C    4S      3S    DQ

Leading                P     P    3H    1N    6C    4S      3S    S2

I’ll post these some time Monday unless someone makes a good case otherwise.

Yes, that’s correct, I did. Fortunately the consensus is already 1NT, or I would be changing.

I changed my vote on A to Pass–I had underevaluated the hand for defense.

On D I changed my vote to 1N. I’d probably still pass at matchpoints, but partner might have a decent hand with diamonds and no bid, so not keeping the auction open risks missing a red game at IMPs (and reopening with anything other than 1N risks wrong-siding a red game).

                  A           B        C        D        E        F        G        H        Total
procrastinator    2S      70  P    80  3H   100 1N   100 6C   100 4S   100 3S   70  S2   60  680  
oirg              P       100 2S   60  4H   0   1N   100 6C   100 4S   100 4H   60  DQ   90  610  
SW                2S      70  2S   60  2S   90  2N   0   5C   70  4S   100 3H   0   S2   60  450  
ST                P       100 3D   100 3H   100 1N   100 6C   100 4S   100 3S   70  DA   100 770  
BTDT              P       100 P    80  3H   100 1N   100 6C   100 6H   50  4H   60  S2   60  650  
NN                P       100 P    80  3H   100 1N   100 5C   70  5C   90  3C   90  S2   60  690  
veni vidi vici    P       100 3D   100 3H   100 1N   100 5C   70  4S   100 3S   70  DQ   90  730  
Submitted         P       100 P    80  3H   100 1N   100 6C   100 4S   100 3S   70  S2   60  710  


                                                                                  
                  P       100 3D   100 3H   100 1N   100 6C   100 4S   100 2D   100 DA   100   
                  2S      70  P    80  2S   90  2N   0   5C   70  5C   90  3C   90  DQ   90       
                              2S   60  4H   0                     6H   50  3S   70  S2   60       
                                                                           4H   60                
                                                                           3H   0                 

For the second straight year, ST has a very strong March (his March 2022 score, only 740, would have tied for second then). This year he’s up to 770, but it ties for (only) 7-10. With his late corrections, VVV’s 730 would tie for 36-43. Our Submitted’s 710 just missed the 720 cut.

Imperfect column alignment. Blame the magazine.

Who will be the first to submit? If no one else submits before tomorrow evening, I’ll be first. Maybe even by noon.

April guesses:

A. 3D
B. 3C
C. 1N
D. 2H
E. 3C
F. 1S
G. 3H
H. Spade 10

From ST by e-mail

Some of these seem very tough to me.

A. 3D - would try 3NT at imps, not watchpoints
B. 3D. A 3C game try is certainly possible
C. 1N
D. 2S. Seems automatic, even though I’m alone so far.
E. 2C
F. 1S
G. 3N. Certainly think 3H would be taken as a doubleton, likely doubleton honor.
H. D4. Certainly not a heart; way too likely declarer has Ax or Kx. I’m avoiding a spade since spades is also more likely than the minors to be a critical suit, and partner may have Jxxx. Now I realize I might be wrong; declarer might think my 10 is from J10. Still I think that the S10 is far more likely to be double dummy wrong than that either minor is double dummy wrong.

A. 3D
B. 5D
C. X
D. 2S
E. 3C
F. 2C it’s a 2-loser hand I can afford to bid muchly
G. 3H. if partner raises to hearts I’m pulling to 5D
H. TS

A) 3D
B) 3C
C) 1NT
D) Pass
E) 2C
F) 1S
G) 3H
H) D4 Yuck.

A. 3 diamonds. Am tempted by 3NT with the spade queen likely creating a double stopper, but decided to take the plus at matchpoints
B. 5 diamonds. No idea what any bids mean, so will just go agricultural. What I would bid at the table, guessing it won’t score well in MSC.
C. Double.
D. 2 spades. First instinct was double, but partner always lets me down and bids clubs.
E. 3 clubs.
F: 2 clubs. Not afraid of all pass it I open 1S, but how will ever convey this strength?
G (omitted before the edit): 3 spades.
H. Spade ten. Not creative enough to come up with another choice.

                       A     B     C     D     E     F       G     H
procrastinator        3D    5D   Dbl    2S    3C    2C      3S   S10
oirg                  3D    3C    1N    2H    3C    1S      3H   S10
SW                    3D    3D    1N    2S    2C    1S      3N    D4
Klaymen               3D    5D    1S    2S    3C    2C      3H   S10
ST                    3N    3C    1N   Dbl    2C    1C      3H   S10
BTDT                                                                
NN                    3D    3C    1N     P    2C    1S      3H    D4
veni vidi vici                                                      

Leading               3D    3C    1N    2S          1S      3H   S10

We have a tentative leader on 7 of 8, with just under 48 hours to go. I hope not to wait until the very last minute.

I’m changing my vote on C to Dbl which I was thinking about, but that won’t change the consensus.

Yech

A) 3D
B) Pass
C) Dbl
D) 2S
E) 2C
F) 1S
G) 3H
H) Diamond 8

                       A     B     C     D     E     F       G     H
procrastinator        3D    5D   Dbl    2S    3C    2C      3S   S10
oirg                  3D    3C    1N    2H    3C    1S      3H   S10
SW                    3D    3D    1N    2S    2C    1S      3N    D4
Klaymen               3D    5D   Dbl    2S    3C    2C      3H   S10
ST                    3N    3C    1N   Dbl    2C    1C      3H   S10
BTDT                  3D     P   Dbl    2S    2C    1S      3H    D8
NN                    3D    3C    1N     P    2C    1S      3H    D4
veni vidi vici                                                      

Leading               3D    3C    1N    2S    2C    1S      3H   S10

With VVV the only regular who hasn’t voted, we have a leader on everything. I won’t vote until some time tomorrow, but may not wait beyond noon.

VVV could create ties on several, including IMO on H, where if he leads any diamond spot I would consider it tied 4-4. Since the spade 10 (from declarer’s viewpoint) could potentially be a false card, I would break that tie with for the spade 10, but if the doubleton spade were 9x and there were a tie, I would break it in favor of the diamond.

Other potential ties? Who knows, but I would decide which way I was leaning and give people until 8PM eastern time tomorrow to talk me out of it.