Steelers organization set back for the foreseeable future… They had a good run though!
Sources: Steelers planning to hire Mike McCarthy as head coach - ESPN
NE / Den, NE up by 3, blizzard conditions
NE punting from 11
I am wondering if it made sense to take the safety, and get a free kick from the 20. with a 1 point lead
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2nd game today was a bit more exciting than 1st one.
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1st one sounded like Div III college football championship game
Looking through the espn play by play listing, you are talking about 4th and 7 on their 7 yard line with 701 remaining.
i suspect with the shit conditions and starting in the EZ there was more than normal discussion of how to handle an adverse or bobbled snap and that certainly includes just covering it or knocking it OOB. but with 7 minutes left, kick away IMO. of course they did kick away and it was (checks notes) a 26 yard kick that brought the ball to the 33. unreal.
Pro Football Reference win prob says (assuming NE favored by 3.5):
down 3, 7 min left, 1st and 10 on NE 33 has DEN 49.7% chance of win.
Same thing but the punt gets to midfield has DEN 40.2% chance of win.
Down 1, 7 min left, 1st and 10 on DEN 30 has DEN 45.9% chance.
Obv this ignores how the punt gets out (real chance of disaster TD) or if it is returned for something. But with a reasonable punt (maybe conditions no longer favor that), it only needs to be downed at the 40 or 41 to match the 45% chance. I would punt.
that game was ugly. the way the weather went all bananas on them in the 4th qtr and when cbs showed the time lapse photos to highlight just how quickly it went bad. it was really bonkers.
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the quality of the play was at a level that only folks with real rooting interests would stay interested. much like the D3 game.
thanks. the actual poor outcome of the kick is not relevant. Though I was also looking to take the snap, and defense out of the kick as well.
in normal conditions, I wouldn’t have suggested it,
You left out the key metric that down anything, with Stidham, DEN has 0% chance to win
..and he was due another interception to match the opening TD so that he could keep his career 1:1 touchdown to interception ratio.
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I am on record that DEN should have kicked the FG early on 4th and 1. Who knows how the game evolves from there, but even converting the 4th down doesn’t guarantee a Stidham-led TD.
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I thought that was an odd choice for a defensive 1st team with a back up QB in a game where weather might be a 2nd half factor to not take points there and go up 2 scores.
I think he got over confident based on the 54 completion which in the end was about 30% of Denver’s total offense on the game.
I wonder if the weather forecast gave a good chance of snow during the game? If so, it would more likely be a low-scoring affair and the field goal would make more sense.
I was yelling at the Broncos to take the FG. Guess I wasn’t loud enough. And I was rooting for NE, but a FG seemed like a no brainer at that time.
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I had no idea that the conditions would get worse later on. Prior to the game, I thought it would be low scoring based on both defenses + Stidham, so points would be at a premium.
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I didn’t know either, but you have to assume an NFL team planning on a trip to the SB would have checked the Doppler radar forecast.
With all that said, DEN had chances to win in the 4th quarter, which is all they could hope for.
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in general, i liked the attempt to go for it at 4th and 2. but general isn’t specific and this case was very specific. DEN run game is terrible bc of injuries and the backup QB is in. So the play call has to be something that is super high success. but with the main ingredients listed, high success isn’t there.3 points was nearly guaranteed. payton may have been overconfident there.
to be fair hindsight does show that 14 points would have been a big deal though (although lots of stuff changes from that point forward).
who here lives in denver and can say that they knew it would turn into a snow globe in 40 minutes like it did at exactly that time?
Before the game, I had heard of snow starting during the game. Might have been wishful thinking, from neutral fans wanting to see those conditions.
Google AI:
Key Details for the Game Day Weather:
- Snow Timing: While potentially dry at kickoff, a burst of snow is expected during the second half.
- Accumulation: Total snowfall for the area is expected to be around 1-3 inches, with higher amounts in surrounding areas, potentially creating slick road conditions.
- Temperatures: Temperatures will drop into the low 20s and possibly teens by the end of the game.
- Wind: Winds are expected to pick up during the second half, adding to the cold.
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