I guess Josh put that to rest.
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Interesting thing I read about Friday and Saturday NFL games.
The law states there can be no professional football games on Friday nights after 6 p.m. or any Saturday from the second weekend of September through the second weekend of December. It applies to any professional games that are within 75 miles of a high school or college football game taking place the same weekend.
So the Black Friday game had to start early and I believe it might be a broadcast over the air rule though Iām not positive.
Pretty impressed that Josh Allen was able to get a TD pass and a TD catch on the same play. And he scored a rushing TD, which is quite the rare trifecta. Amazingly, more rare for a QB than a running back or receiver.
Rodgers discussing his future, says he doesnāt need to try out, at 41, because his accomplishments from 15 years ago are all he needs. Dude, this isnāt an Chief Actuaryās job, where you (should) get wiser with every passing year. You actually get dumber every time someone hits your helmet.
Rodgers, who turned 41 on Monday, has said heās undecided on whether to play next season. Heās under contract for 2025, but none of his compensation ($37.5 million) is guaranteed. If he decides to play, his āfirst optionā is the Jets, he has said.
That seems to me like not a contract.
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Heās pretty much undecided on whether to play every year.
15 years ago? He did win B2B MVPs as recently as 2020 and 2021 but it does look a lot like at age 42 father time will remain undefeated.
Yup.
He says he needs a month or so to figure it out. Probably in a yurt somewhere.
This, pretty much. Point I was making is that he thinks he should get a job based on what happened in the long-ago (before the Jet Age) rather than his last two years. Uh, not in the NFL Football League, bub.
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Then hits 05.
(In all fairness he IS trying to keep his replacement defense off the field as much as possible.)
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Eh, āteh analyticsā point toward going for it. One of the best offenses in the league should be able to gain a few inches.
Usually though 4th and short deep in opponents territory means go. However, I think this was a rare case of the call being more aggressive than the analytics from what I saw. Iāll see if I can find the math on this one.
Well, they were already tied.
Kicking gives the ball back, maybe with a lead 5% chance of a tie (WAG) with little time but to another great offensive team.
Going for it and failing gives the ball back tied with little time but to another great offensive team.
Going for it and succeeding gives them a 95% chance (maybe more, since shorter FG) of winning outright with no giving back the ball to GB.
OT is a coin flip. Make your own luck.
I have a sneaking suspicion he didnāt consult Matt Eberflus on this decisionā¦
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Seems to me the last two columns are more important: Win % is higher going for it whether they succeed or fail.
And this is not dice-rolling. Your odds on this one decision are not the same as the average of the NFL Football League.
And the fun thing about this is: if you are the CHI Bears with nothing to play for, why play safe? This is the best team in the NFC Football Conference.
How may times in this particular game did they NOT make a few inches running? That might be better data to use than the NFL Football League average for which to make decisions.
The success % of the play is a critical part of the math here in terms of EV.
One cannot use āanalyticsā in this case. It was 4th and 1/2 yard, but I felt DET received a favorable spot on 3rd down that made going for it more realistic. Either decision is obviously very favorable to DET.
Slight deviations on likelihood of GB scoring if they get the ball:
Not converting the 4th down: GB gets ball near 20yd line
Make FG on 4th down: GB (likely) gets ball at 30yd line
Miss FG on 4th down: GB gets ball at 28yd line
Going for it went from a 38-yard FG attempt on the āwrongā hash to a 35-yard attempt on the favorable hash.
If GB gets the ball in a tie situation, there is still a non-zero chance DET wins in regulation.
I would give GB a slight edge in OT. It would āfeelā as if DET should have won in regulation
I will say it again: There are teams that are built to succeed on 4th down because of their coaching, personnel, and attitude, are there are teams that are not.
I think going for it with the DET offense in this overall game dynamic was the right call. At a minimum, it wasnāt a bad call.
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I get that.
Even a 50% chance of success in going for it would result in better odds afterward. (No, not beforeward.)
Anywho, they made the correct decision because they are a better than average team. Period.
It wasnāt a bad call, even with the benefit of hindsight. Like I said, it was a rare case of a call being more aggressive than the analytics. Usually coaches are way too conservative with respect to what they should do.