I don’t think this is relevant as other plays have a split run/pass likelihood. Though DET did lose yardage (slightly) on the previous play.
Yeah. I skipped watching the game last night as I already knew how it would end. Didn’t think it was fair to bet on it though.
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Coaches are “conservative” to the extent that they will be devoured by the media the next day.
Even assuming the “analytics” were correct for this particular case, it is a close enough to make either decision. If you were dealt 1 million blackjack hands, then you make the same decision every time.
Agreed. It was also the right call.
Eh, I think the wrong analytics are being used. In this case, using the average of the NFL Football League to decide what the best team in the NFC Football Conference should do. And anyone thinking these are the correct analytics qualifies as a color announcer who has played in the league but also still has a somewhat functioning brain.
The “toughest men,” you know “they played the game, and you and I didn’t” bullshitters, are the biggest pussies IMO. And they lose their jobs more quickly than the brave ones, I believe.
Pretty sure they didn’t gain a few inches multiple times in that game
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This.
Analytics are more about what to do a lot of times, netting a positive return over a long run. Not a single decision, that, admittedly, has a lot riding on it.
Out of how many running snaps? Go ahead, look it up.
only counting plays where that was all they needed
Yes, but they are both more likely to succeed than fail. So, in football terms, they are equivalent.
Agreed.
A 3% difference, plus/minus what?
Yes, variances are hard for certain people using analytics to explain to an even dumber population of viewers.
Coming into the game DET were 11th in the league in 4th down conversion rate, pretty good but not blowing away the league. Going 4/5 moved them up to 6th. Obviously individual team rates for a partial season are small sample size, but you can give that more credibility if you choose to.
You can make your own assumptions on success rate and check the win probability added.
How was GB in defending 4th downs? Can’t find this info online (disclaimer: tried for about a minute).
20th in rate, so a bit below average. Somewhat illustrating the small sample size problem, GB were 5th best in 2023.
Yeah, not a very predictable stat year-to year.
Then again, a team that sucks at it one year will focus on it the following year, while those that were good at it will instead focus on what they sucked at.
Sure, a coach has a lot more considerations than just the analytics. However, to make an informed decision understanding the odds is one of the important considerations.
Simply put, football <> baseball for analytics. Way too small sample sizes, plus situational differences that make things not comparable. Even 4th down conversion % is garbage. 4th and 1 is much different than 4th and inches or 4th and 8. Are you down 20 in garbage time vs. a prevent defense, or tied late in the game?
Football analytics should be used for educating people that 4th down does not automatically mean punt or FG.
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Is it?
Coaches are more likely to use these odds to make decisions on their job security, and not necessarily to win the game.
And, they don’t worry about “the odds” on every other play in the game. “Should I run or pass?” on every single down? That’s not done. “Which pass/run play?” after that decision.
Heck, they hardly use analytics to decide on timeouts, which I think is far more important, given the fixed scarcity of them, AND the overgifting of unused 1st Half Timeouts to their favorite charities.
This sort of analysis does indeed show that coaches should be going for it rather kicking much more than they are. 4th and short in the opponents field is usually a go. The NFL is changing though, and many teams are doing this now. Some of the dinosaurs do still stick to old habits and play it safe when the math says otherwise.
Also, this sort of analysis does consider 4th and short being different than 4th and long. Keep everything else constant in this particular situation except make it 4th and 7 instead of 4th and 1. The right side of that box above stays the same, whiile the success rate on going for it drops meaningfully.
Young Sheldon said that around 5 years ago
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Fixed that.
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