In past US government shutdown situations, while continuing resolutions have been used to get the government reopened, usually they’ve found a way to avoid getting back into a shutdown situation when the CRs expire.
This time…I don’t know. Getting the CR through Congress required crossing one of the red lines that the GOP hard-liners have drawn. The ramifications of that, I think, have to work themselves out. Exactly how/when that happens will influence what happens in mid-November.
Remember also that the Thanksgiving holiday in the US falls in late November. It’s an extremely busy travel period in the US. Congress will have a lot of pressure to not allow political bickering to interfere with the holiday (TSA workers being forced to work without pay, federal employees’ paid holidays/vacation suddenly becoming unpaid furloughs, parks being closed, etc.).
One potential scenario I could see happening is that we get another last-minute CR to kick the can out beyond Christmas, after which either a compromise between the GOP House and the Democrats’ Senate will have been found, or we might actually see another shutdown.
Normally I’d think that to be very unlikely (a shutdown just as 2024’s political season ramps up would be risky for both D’s and R’s), but given current levels of political dysfunction…
Good news – the House is taking a long weekend right now because there isn’t anything pressing like funding the government that has to be done in the near future.
And while the Senate has passed bipartisan spending bills (with 80-ish votes in favor), the House doesn’t even have anything to vote on. Part of that is because they can’t decide whether or not to address birth control in DC.
The $25 billion Financial Services bill ran into trouble with GOP moderates over language that would block the District of Columbia from implementing its 2014 law preventing employment discrimination based on reproductive health decisions, including taking birth control or having an abortion.
Democratic attacks on the bill’s funding cuts for programs ranging from Treasury’s anti-terror and financial crimes activities to election security grants to the Securities and Exchange Commission, didn’t help the measure’s odds with GOP centrists.
One amendment rejected before the bill was yanked from the floor was an attempt by Rep. Claudia Tenney, R-N.Y., to reduce White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre’s salary to $1.
These people aren’t even trying to act like they are serious.
What House Republicans are very likely to do at this point is wait until the very last minute and then approve a CR that includes all the things they want to defund, and lob it at the Senate and dare the Senate and/or the White House to not vote on it or vote it down (whichever of the two apply).
They (especially the House Freedom Caucus) will try to claim they really wanted to keep government open, it was those goddamn Democrats that caused the government to shutdown.
How do I actually read the twitter thread? All I see is the tweet where he says he is going to explain it (and why you would do that in 240 character snippets still escapes me).
Meanwhile US 30-year bonds have to pay over 1% more interest per annum than the corresponding bonds in most EU countries and Canada. That is a huge difference historically.
The current proposal is reportedly a 2-step approach:
Agriculture, Energy and Water, Military Construction and Veterans Affairs, Transportation and HUD: fund until January 19
Everything else: fund until February 2
Spending maintained at current levels
No additional money for Ukraine or Israel, or the border
Couple other provisions, all of which seem relatively minor - but it would extend coverage for a few other minor things through September 2024
I’m not an economist, and I didn’t play one on TV, but this seems like Johnson said “let me see what I can do to keep government open and not cave in to the right-wing lunatic fringe of the party, but make the idea even more stupid.” If it inexplicably passed (probably not enough Rs to pass it; Ds are out against it) it guarantees all the same drama leading right up to January 19, a near-certainty of a 2-week clean CR and more drama leading up to February 2 where House Republicans have to decide whether “standing up for fiscal principles” is worth a near-lock in getting routed in November in key races across the country.
Is it too early to start looking for a head of lettuce?
That’s the kind of messaging Republicans would have run ad nauseum pre-2016 against the Democrats on practically everything - and the Democrats would respond with a 138 page paper trying to explain why Republicans were wrong with that message.
It seems like Democrats have mostly been unwilling to punch below the belt in the same manner. We’re starting to see some real-life stories in ads like “I’m 12 and Republicans are forcing me to give birth.” But haven’t seen a lot of it. Maybe that will change - I don’t really want to see it but also don’t see a better way to get to low-information voters.
