So about 48 hours away from shutting down large parts of the US government. This sounds like a small group of far right wing Republicans are throwing a tantrum and shutting down the ability to fund the government.
Babies gonna baby and actually get more votes (and more GOP/MAGA money for toeing the line) in their Primary.
I’m confused why McConnell is worried about the shutdown this time. Polling must indicate that Republicans would be blamed for it. He didn’t seem concerned during his first shutdown or second while Majority Leader. Nor the one during his tenure under the Obama years where he said his top priority was to make sure Obama got nothing done (which led to GOP lawmakers hilariously voting against their own bills.)
I wonder if what he is really worried about is the maga wing flexing their muscles and getting more power within the party.
I think the perception is the GOP is going to get 100% of the blame for this Government Shutdown and he doesn’t want any bad press that might upset an otherwise very favorable 2024 GOP Senate Map.
So that small wing of the R’s that ultimately made a deal with McCarthy to be Speaker now holds the power to stop a bipartisan Senate CR that would probably pass the house with enough R’s and D’s combining to pass it. Because if McCarthy were to allow a vote on the Senate CR they would pull their support for him and he would lose his Speakership and the house would be thrown into chaos?
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That sounds about right.
Aren’t shutdowns generally unpopular and usually due to Republicans recently?
I think you have to go back to GHWB for a democratic shutdown. The others have been Republican lead against Clinton, Obama and now Biden if it happens. But beyond that it seems like the Republican who try to drive us off a fiscal cliff anytime a Democrat is in the White House and spend like drunken sailors anytime Republican is in the White House.
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Not sure about whether or not the GOP is responsible, but I’d agree that is the popular belief. If you are going to advertise yourself as the party that wants to cut the budget, well then it’s likely that you will win all ties in the voter’s minds. This McConnel knows. Rs got blamed in prior shutdowns, whether correctly or not, and it’s an uphill political climb then. It is a sort of an “own goal”.
This time I blame the republicans because this is just one of the many examples where you see that the distance between the far right in the party and the rest of the party is just increasing and they themselves are not able to reach an understanding. It is affecting national issues. We have that senator who is blocking military posts and the hanging threat to the speaker indicated already.
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I think most people recognize shutdowns as a game-of-chicken, the outcome is zero-sum, but the cost of playing is significant. This makes the draw goes to the party that didn’t initiate the game.
This makes the game rare, unless the two sides really despise each other, or the game can be played by a small minority. Both of which are true these days.
There were 2 Republican-led shutdowns during Trump as well, although 1 was just Rand Paul throwing a pissy little filibuster until the government shut down for something like two hours.
No idea how expensive that 2-hour shutdown was, I’m sure it had a hefty price tag for Paul’s moral point about immigrants or whatever.
Seems like this shut down is likely going to be bad, largely because the Freedom Caucus seems to have no interest in negotiating or compromise. They won’t put their own budget proposal out there, and won’t let anything else come to the floor for a vote because they know Dems and non-crazy Republicans will compromise to keep the government going. The House GOP couldn’t even agree on a Farm bill, as the “Freedom” caucus felt the need to pack it with antiabortion measures.
The problem is that it is a game of chicken between the old school Republicans and the MAGA Republicans.
Although I’m sad because a shutdown objectively hurts America, I’m still riding that high from the 2020 and 2022 elections and a public right-wing meltdown wouldn’t be the worst heading into 2024. Just wish it would be a few months later given the public’s lack of memory.
This is the same as the Tea Party vs Obama.
Ultimately McConnell was forced (God forbid!) to side with Democrats in order to make the dumb supermajority.
I’m not sure McCarthy has the spine to stand with democrats. It is very easy to challenge his speakership.
I think Biden’s speech last night shows he is going to try to associate maga extremism with the direct consequences of this shutdown.
The problem is the new school wants to burn it to the ground.
So meet the new school, same as the old school.
McConnell and Schumer already came to an agreement in the Senate on a 6 week deal and their proposal passed with huge support. If that bill was put forth in the House right now, I think it would easily pass. McCarthy can’t put it on the floor and keep his job, so he’ll capitulate to the nutburgers.
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