Yeah, I was trying to list them in the order of likelihood that Biden will win them (like it’s more likely that Biden will carry MI than WI, etc.) I’m not sure that I have ME-02 in the right place though… it sort of just attached to NE-02 for the ride. And somehow I forgot to place NC.
Everyone I know who voted 3rd party in 2016 is voting Biden this year. Admittedly, that’s only 3 people, but all 3 live in a battleground state.
Did any of the Trump supporters come over from the Zombie AO?
There really weren’t very many Trump supporters there to begin with. But no, I don’t think any of them did. Are there any Trump supporters on GoActuary?
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Haven’t noticed any yet.
Me neither.
Exactly this. Hillary was a holistically terrible candidate that got Republicans to show up even if it meant standing in an angry fire ant nest and caused independents who didn’t want to vote for Trump to feel like they were holding their nose to vote for her. Biden doesn’t evoke the same passion from Republicans, and Democrats are just as motivated as Republicans were 4 years ago. Plus, you have Republicans electing to vote against Trump in notable numbers.
Based on stuff I recall seeing elsewhere, there’s at least 1 unless that person has changed their mind since.
Polls have closed in the first handful of states.
– Will Biden win Vermont?
– Will Trump win Kentucky and Indiana?
– And is there any chance Daniel Gage upsets incumbent Mark Warner in the Senate race in Virginia?
:nailbiting:
FL sounds like it’s trending toward Trump. One of the Internet sites says it’s going to Trump. Maybe one of these years Democrats will get their shit together th- … ah, who are we kidding. They won’t.
NC - Biden with a large lead, but sounds like what’s left is red though sparsely populated. Will be interesting to see if there’s enough there to cover the gap. NY Times is leaning slightly to Trump.
GA - NY Times has Trump with a 78% chance of winning right now.
OH, TX - early reports say Biden outperformed Clinton '16, but whether it’s enough is TBD. I’ll be shocked if he gets either state.
None of these are “must win” for Biden, they’re more “pad the lead” - but if they all fall and any of PA/MI/MN/WI go with them, this will start having that uncomfortable 2016 vibe in short order.
FL makes me think Arizona is unlikely, but the results in TX, GA, and other county level results might get Biden PA, MI, WI. Probably comes down to a court battle over how long we can count votes in PA.
Democrats get the first flip of the night in the Senate. Hickenlooper called the winner, ousting Cory Gardner.
Likely to be undone by Alabama where I expect Doug Jones will go down by ~12 points.
Trump currently 84% to win Georgia, but that’s been slowly inching down from about 88% earlier. Still, I don’t know that this flips to Biden. Meanwhile, Perdue is up about 15 points right now with DeKalb County basically unreported and Fulton County only 25% reported, but that’s a massive gap to overcome. The special race currently looks to be a run-off between Loeffler and Warnock.
Fox calls SC Senate for Graham. If that holds, that’s going to be a massive disappointment for everyone who went into the state to try and get Graham booted.
Arizona looks increasingly like it will flip to Biden, who’s overperforming Clinton by perhaps 10-15 percentage points in the major counties.
The polls were useless this year.
There is going to be yet more soul-searching to figure out how they were so wrong in certain states yet again, and how the hell to finally get it right in those places.
NY Times, talking about Missouri:
Yeah, great. It’s got perhaps 9,000 votes in the county this time around and it’s still Trump +47. That leftward swing is a virtual landslide.
Yep. Amazed that they seemed to blow it that badly two presidential elections in a row.
Is there a nice site somewhere that lists the state by state POTUS results?
I don’t want a map. I want a list.
What are you basing this on? Where do we have evidence that they were wrong? All of the battleground states are way too early to call.