2020 Electoral College Predictions Discussion

Why isn’t the answer to this “suburban women and people over 65”?

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Women certainly broke for Clinton, although I’m not sure about suburban women specifically. In my social circle the suburban women that I know who voted for Trump in 2016 are voting / will vote for him again in 2020. Not a credible sample, of course.

I’ve seen polling comparing the populations in 2016 and 2020 and the change is very clear. Now are these people in the states that really matter? IDK. But there are very clearly people in these groups that have converted.


2016 Johnson voters are all over the place. I know some fundamental libertarians going johnson->trump due to anti-socialist reasons. I know some that are going Jo Jorgenson. I know some that are voting biden (this whole forum?) and I know some that dont plan to vote.

I think its a wash.

3rd party candidates got nearly 5% of the 2016 vote total. I expect 3rd party voters to get around 1% of this years vote total which is much more in line with 2004, 2008 & 2012.

Low information voters.

My mother voted for Trump. She’s a lifelong Republican, she knew Trump from the Apprentice. She watches cop shows mostly.

Children in cages flipped her. She voted straight ticket Democrat in 2020.

29% of 94M is 27M NEW voters. I’m guessing that would be more Biden than Trump.

I voted Trump in 2016 and changed my mind. I don’t know anyone who voted Hillary in 2016 that is voting Trump now.

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Cool… hope there’s more like LN’s mother and NP out there!

I’m worried that some people upset about looting / rioting may possibly be in this camp.

I’m not sure why else you’d switch. The only possibility I can think of is being happy about Trump moving the embassy to Jerusalem, but I thought most Zionists leaned Republican anyway? And it’s hard for me as a non-Jew to see that as a terribly big deal, but I’m told that it’s significant to some.

I voted Johnson in 2016, on my way to vote Biden now.

Anecdotally, I know four people who were Trump supporters in 2016 that have left him. One doesn’t vote, one is still voting Trump just to spite Biden, two are voting for Biden. I don’t know anyone who voted Clinton in 2016 who is voting Trump now.


I too am a Johnson-Biden voter. I think there will be a lot of Johnson-Biden and Stein-Biden voters.

In fact, I would wager to say that more than 50% of Johnson voters and way more than 50% of Stein voters will go for Biden this time around. Some will go for Jorgensen or Hawkins and a very few will go for Trump. But Biden will overwhelmingly win both the Johnson and the Stein voters IMO.

It looks like 413 is the absolute peak for Biden’s possibilities unless polls are way off in some non-swing states.

Agree. Start with 2016 and then give Biden MI, WI, PA, NE-02, ME-02, NC, GA, FL, OH, AZ, IA, TX. I can’t imagine that he has a chance anywhere else. Next closest states are Montana and Alaska and it would be quite a coup for him to win either of those. Then South Carolina then we start getting into deep red territory.

And I think Trump’s best case scenario is as follows:

Biden: 253 (picks up MI, WI, NE-02)
Trump: 285 (picks up NV)

So he clearly has a realistic path to victory. He doesn’t even need Nevada, but he does need PA where he’s trailing by even more than he’s trailing in NV but where the polls were off by more last time.

Did you add in NC? It will likely go blue before some of those other states.

Yes, I included NC but apparently forgot to list it. :grimacing:

Post corrected!

I figured with that high of a number, it was probably included. :slightly_smiling_face:

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Add me and my wife to this trend

Seems like it