2020 Electoral College Predictions Discussion

To keep going from where the AO left off.

New poll for WI has Biden up 17 points.

If Biden wins WI by 17 points, I will send you $5 million AO bucks. If Biden doesn’t win WI by 17 points, all you have to do is stop quoting polls. Forever.

Legit pollster, too. One of 538’s favorites.

Is Biden likely to win 57-40? Heck no. But with the way the COVID outbreak is hitting the upper midwest right now, it is likely the vote is moving against Trump, and not for him, in the closing week.

Another unrelated poll that supplies additional evidence for an electoral backlash.

Ditto the summer 2020 judicial election, with Karofsky demolishing Kelly 55.3-44.7%.

Even the best eyes on GoActuary see that some poll results are strange. They also remind you never to trust polls when there are better sources to trust available.

The best eyes on GoActuary see that the antecedent of “him” in that sentence is Biden, and don’t see the COVID outbreak as moving the vote against him.

The best eyes on GoActuary quoted my post before I edited. Naughty Mole.

agree with others in that the upper midwest looks like its going blue. MN, WI,would be shocking to see either of these go blue. Not by 17 pts, but I would expect a comfortable 3-4% margin. MI is still somehow on the table, but a long shot for Rs.

FL and NC I see going Red. But but more likely go Dem compared to MI going red. If biden takes either NC or FL (both possible), I think its over.

PA still looks like the big toss up. Winning margin these likely <1% for whoever takes it. No way its getting called for certain election night.

So Trumps path to victory is: FL, NC, PA, AZ.

Biden’s path is just win 1 of those 4.

In a legit election, I think Biden takes PA by 3-5%.

Of course, PA is the state the Republicans are most focused on trying to steal in broad daylight.

Put GA on that list. Seriously.

if trump is losing states like GA, this shit is LOL over.

There’s a legit possibility Biden takes Texas.

No, I’m not expecting it.

But if that happens, that’s it. Maybe we finally get rid of the Electoral College.

I can see Rs flipping NV. It would allow Rs to lose AZ and still have a chance.

so Trump path is FL, NC, PA, AZ or NV.

R machine is the right mix of smart and evil. I wouldn’t count them out yet.
D machine it the wrong mix of righteous and naïve. Dont try to expand the map, just win PA or AZ and call it a day.

Pollster likely voter models may be understating Biden support.

This is the strategy taken by the DNC after 2008. It failed.

You can’t pursue this strategy and expect to win the Senate.

Moving away from Howard Dean’s 50 state strategy was a huge mistake.

I don’t think expanding the map is naivety. The more states that stand between Trump and the win, the better it is for the Dems. If it’s one state, then Trump can focus all his post-election shenanigans in that state. 3 states? Much lower chance of Trump succeeding.

Not going to happen this year. Jon Ralston is a known commodity in predicting the Nevada elections. Based on his analysis of early voter turnout (which is something that happens in Nevada every year) along with looking at total votes left he is showing that right now even if Trump beat Biden by 10% with independents Biden would still win Nevada.

So my prediction is:

Biden 279
Trump 259

Start with 2016 results and flip Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Maine’s 2nd congressional district in favor of the Dems. No GOP pickups.

I’m fairly uncertain about Arizona, but they too could flip. Right now I’m pessimistically calling Arizona for Trump.

As for the Senate, 50-50 with Harris as the tie-breaker, so 51-50 for anything that’s along party lines.
GOP will pick up Alabama
Dems will pick up Arizona, Colorado, Maine and the Georgia special election.

I’m fairly uncertain about Maine & North Carolina, but currently calling ME for the Dem and NC for the Republican.

If I’m correct, this will be the first time Ohio’s voted for the losing candidate since 1960, which ends a fairly long electoral college voting streak.

(Ohio, incidentally, only votes for losing Republicans. They have not voted for a losing Democrat since 1852… two years before the Republican Party was founded, which is by FAR the longest streak of voting for either the winning candidate or the preferred political party.)

This seems like a very pessimistic map for Biden and requires a lot of polls to be understating Trump’s support.

I don’t see Arizona voting for Trump and Kelly.