For Biden there are several possibilities. For Trump there is only Pennsylvania and he also has to win all the states that are possibly Biden tipping points. I think Biden is going to surprise and win one of Georgia, Florida, or Texas and that will be the big shock that basically ends the election.
Florida is a fast reporting state generally, so I’m hopeful it’s Florida and the results will be pretty well known on election night. I think there’s a 75% we know Biden won (after midnight) on election night. If trump ends up winning, we don’t know for sure until like Friday.
I can’t imagine there is any accurate model out there for this election.
I’ve very hopeful for a 350+ point electoral vote for biden as a striking rebuke to Trump and the current GOP. If dems get it, let’s hope they don’t screw it up by 2022 and lose a bunch of congressional seats.
This has been what I’ve been trying to figure out. If 150M+ People vote, does Trump come anywhere near 70M votes? He received 63M votes in 2016. I imagine a lot of voters (5%) aren’t going to vote for him again. So is he really picking up 9+M votes somewhere?
A shameless plug for my prediction contest since this is a similar topic thread: Contest! Predict the 2020 Swing State Winners and Margins!
So the question that my Dad keeps asking me when I tell him that Biden is going to win is this: Who voted for Trump in 2016 that will vote for Biden in 2020?
By election day 2016 we already knew that Trump was a foul-mouthed ass, so that won’t turn off very many of his 2016 voters. Some of them are dead. Some will have been affected by Covid-19 and think he did a bad job managing that. 5% of his supporters though? I dunno.
I think it’s more going to be his horrendous Presidency resulting in a massive uptick of Dem turnout and a small shift of 2016 3rd party voters to the Dem. I personally know both Johnson-Biden and Stein-Biden voters (and am a Johnson-Biden voter myself). Not too many, but I think there’s potentially enough such voters to help move the needle on some very close states.
I think there were people that broke late for him that regret it. Also some who didn’t realize how terribly he would run everything.
And yes, the 3rd party voters and more generally independent are going to break biden this year as well.
Half of them are deplorable, so no hope of switching their votes and stopping them from getting in their trucks to intimidate voters.
The other half? Well, Biden’s not black and not a woman. Might be all they need to hold their noses and vote out someone who’s lied 20,000 times to America.
Also, Hillary was a bad candidate that turned off voters.
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I voted for Johnson in 2016 and I voted for Biden in 2020.
But, I’m not claiming I’m a “typical” Johnson voter.
A few.
My uncle was horrified that I voted for Biden and I pointed out that Trump did himself a disservice by nominating ACB when he did. Because a vacancy on the Supreme Court would be one of the few reasons to vote for Trump, since I will probably like ACB better than a Biden nominee. (I’m not actually sure if this is true or not, but it was easier to just assume that it’s true in this particular conversation than get into a conversation with my uncle about how Biden would be nominating the devil incarnate.) But now that she’s already seated, what possible reason is there to vote for Trump? The possibility that Breyer will kick the bucket? Meh. So he gets replaced with another liberal.
So if there are others on the edge who also think they would prefer Trump nominees to Biden nominees, there’s one less reason to vote for Trump now. And yeah, perhaps he’s been worse than they thought, particularly with Covid.
I doubt he’s more crass than they thought.
Why isn’t the answer to this “suburban women and people over 65”?
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Women certainly broke for Clinton, although I’m not sure about suburban women specifically. In my social circle the suburban women that I know who voted for Trump in 2016 are voting / will vote for him again in 2020. Not a credible sample, of course.
I’ve seen polling comparing the populations in 2016 and 2020 and the change is very clear. Now are these people in the states that really matter? IDK. But there are very clearly people in these groups that have converted.
2016 Johnson voters are all over the place. I know some fundamental libertarians going johnson->trump due to anti-socialist reasons. I know some that are going Jo Jorgenson. I know some that are voting biden (this whole forum?) and I know some that dont plan to vote.
I think its a wash.
3rd party candidates got nearly 5% of the 2016 vote total. I expect 3rd party voters to get around 1% of this years vote total which is much more in line with 2004, 2008 & 2012.
Low information voters.
My mother voted for Trump. She’s a lifelong Republican, she knew Trump from the Apprentice. She watches cop shows mostly.
Children in cages flipped her. She voted straight ticket Democrat in 2020.