Now is the time to document that you knew exactly what was going to happen before it did. The winner will be the one that can truly unskew the polls, find those hidden Trump voters, and help us really know how to factor in yard sign counts to the final results.
Low information predictor? Feel free to look at 538, RealClearPolitics, The Economist, electoral-vote.com, or your favorite pollsters results (Trafalgar!). Only one thing is certain - the polls will be wrong, but you get to decide which direction and by how much.
How to Play and Scoring
I have included every state listed as a “toss-up” by RealClearPolitics. By each state list the winner and the margin. For example, if you think Biden will win Florida by 3 you would put Biden +3 next to Florida. For each state where you correctly predict the winner you will get 10 points minus the difference between your margin and the actual margin. For example, if Florida actually came in at Biden +1 you would get 10-2 = 8 points. Scoring is floored at 1 point, so if you are off by 10+% but chose the right winner, you still get 1 point. If you chose the wrong winner you get 0 points for the state.
All percentages are rounded to the nearest percent. Preliminary scoring on Wednesday, final scoring next week some time. Winner gets to ask Serena for a special flair.
Tiebreakers - 1. Number of correct states. 2. Closest State Prediction. If tied, 2nd closest prediction etc. through all states 3. Earliest time of entry.
Entries must be submitted by 6PM ET on Tuesday
State
Winner
Margin
Arizona
Florida
Georgia
Iowa
Michigan
Minnesota
Nevada
North Carolina
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Texas
Wisconsin
Bonus two points each - predict just the winner of:
NE-02
ME-02
I thought about that, scoring based on distance from actual result, but in the end decided that since states are winner take all, winner is more important than margin.
And glad that you will play! I’ll probably post my entry later today - I think trying to read tea leaves in the middle of election day itself is going to be more noise than helpful for predictions.
