2020 Election State-by-State Outlook

Yeah, that’s weird.

Same tactic Trump went with in the second debate. Going hard after Biden for supporting/leading the 90s crime bill. Which had a ton of flaws that many of Biden’s more left-wing semi-supporters might have problems with, but still undercuts the Republican = Law & Order argument.
I imagine it’s an argument of “I might not convince you to vote for me, but I can convince you not to vote at all”?

I finally got the ad to pop up again (it’s a video ad that pops up in the bottom corner of some websites). Seems to be from the “Protecting Our Values” PAC, which is apparently a Democrat super PAC primarily focused on helping the Independent Alaskan US Senate candidate oust the incumbent Republican. I guess they decided to expanded their cause.

I actually feel better knowing it’s a Democratic PAC – Democrats thinking some Republicans are complete imbeciles is par for the course. The alternative was just too depressing to contemplate.

Sen Doug Jones (D-AL) has been stuffing my mailbox with flyers. You can really see the $ lead he has over Tuberville. One of his flyers even asked and answered Q “Can you vote straight ticket Republican and Jones (because I won’t vote for Tuberville)?” A “Yes, marking straight Republican and Jones in the Senate race will count for Jones”. I found that interesting, since it seems to indicate the straight ticket bubble applies to all unmarked races only. Makes sense, but I learned something. FTR, I got very little if any mail from him in 2017 special election.

It seems New Hampshire told anyone with a heartbeat and/or a political agenda that I received an absentee ballot. Or so I assume, since every bloody PAC with an interest in NH politics has sent me a dozen mailers and probably half explicitly referenced the fact that I’m voting absentee.

If so that seems profoundly unwise.

I’m still on some NH voting lists since I lived there in the last general election. I’ve not received any paper mail for the election (my mail forwarding has long since expired) but I have received 3 or 4 messages which reference me being an absentee voter in NH.

I usually ignore spam texts but I’ve enjoyed replying to any and all political texts this cycle. For these, I’ve assured them that I most certainly am not voting absentee in NH.

Whatever algorithm is generating their list of “absentee in NH”, it is NOT super selective. I suspect it’s closer to “still on the NH voter rolls” without much refinement beyond that.

Yeah, it’s possible they just assumed I was voting absentee. I live in one of the more liberal towns in the state (I think the 2016 election was split around 70-30 Clinton v. Trump), and so I’d expect the rate of absentee voting is particularly high here.

Shameless plug for my prediction contest: Contest! Predict the 2020 Swing State Winners and Margins!

Well, first thing you’ve got to do is copy/paste that bad boy into excel, then alt-d-e, alt+d, alt+n, alt+c (if Comma isn’t selected) (alt+t (if Tab is and you’re pedantic like I am)), alt+f :viola:

Then, you’ll see each state with its Electoral Votes along with the quasi-probability that it goes D followed by R.

I’m heading out, so will post more later tonight.

I hope it doesn’t come down to Pennsylvania. Based on how they report votes (absentee reported last and bulk of counting likely not done till Friday), early results are going to be more Republican leaning than the final. If it hinges on Penn and votes swing from red to blue over the course of the counting, you sure as shit know that’s going to raise calls of voter fraud.

I’d love for PA to not matter because that means Biden is having a great night which in turn probably means he’s gonna be leading in PA anyway. Where is that major major major major ID when you need it?

But if he’s not, and there are a ton of outstanding votes to count, the networks won’t call it one way or the other so it won’t be red on any maps. RIght?

AZ just tilted red, so that would put it at 279 D - 259 R.

Like I said in the AO thread…one of my guesses might end up being right.

I’ll post my Senate prediction in here as well:

50+2 Dems
48 Reps

GA-SE is a coin flip, but I have it blue.
GA & NC are only ~60% for the Dems.
CO, AZ-SE, & ME are 70+% for the Dems.

The only R pickup is in AL (>95% certain).

So, Reps could easily keep three of those races that are now blue and get up to 51-49.

It’s awfully difficult to make predictions…especially about the future.

I think most of this information is available to anyone who asks for it. How you’re registered (Dem/GOP/Green/Lib/Independent), whether absentee or in person, which past elections you’ve voted in… all stuff that I’d get printouts of when I was a campaign volunteer. It’s considered public information.

I’m predicting 280-258 Guessing I have the same 279 that you do plus ME-02? I can’t quite figure out how to follow your long list.

Do you have the GA Special and GA mixed up? I believe the GA special is in the bag for the Dem and the GA regular is a toss up.

Dems have GA-Special but might not get the 50% required to avoid January runoff is how I understand it. Especially if Lieberman gets ~5% of the vote.

If the list of absentee voters must be public, publish that information on Nov 4th. Making the information publicly available prior to the election needlessly opens the door to electoral fraud, or at least raises the spectre of it. In the current environment that’s profoundly stupid.

I’ve never seen “absentee” as a field, but I’ve certainly seen name, age, address, phone number, registration, and which elections sometime voted in published. Usually you pay the town a reasonable photocopy fee to get it in hardcopy. Dunno how they charge for it electronically, but I’m sure it’s not much.

Because I voted in the R primary for years ago, I got a lot of political mail directed at Republicans.