2020 Election State-by-State Outlook

Here is my tracking of the 2020 electoral college votes by state. (crossposted from AO, in case AO disappears and I lose the history here)

223 Biden to 126 Trump in states not shown below that I consider “guarantees” for each side. (note: I’m including all of Maine for Biden and all of Nebraska for Trump here, with the simplifying assumption that NE-2/ME-2 split 1-1.)

States to watch and recent polling:

Leans Trump (62 votes) If Trump loses any of these states it’s probably a blowout for Biden.
Texas (38)
Sep 7 - 46% - 46% (Even)
Sep 2 - 48% - 46% (Trump +2)
Sep 2 - 48% - 47% (Trump +1)
Ohio (18)
Sep 15 - 48% - 45% (Trump +3)
Sep 7 - 50% - 45% (Trump +5)
Sep 2 - 47% - 51% (Biden +4)
Iowa (6)
Sep 5 - 47% - 45% (Trump +2)
Aug 3 - 48% - 47% (Trump +1)
Aug 2 - 45% - 44% (Trump +2)

Leans Biden (67 votes) If Biden wins five of these six states he wins the election. He has even more wiggle room if he wins PA.
Pennsylvania (20) Biden almost always exceeds 50% prior to allocating undecided voters, making this feel strongly in his camp.
Sep 15 - 45% - 52% (Biden +7)
Sep 8 - 46% - 49% (Biden +3)
Sep 7 - 44% - 53% (Biden +9)
Sep 7 - 45% - 50% (Biden +5)
Sep 6 - 46% - 50% (Biden +4)
Sep 6 - 44% - 51% (Biden +7)
Michigan (16) There are a lot of undecideds in MI polls, but even with that Biden is near or above 50%
Sep 15 - 40% - 48% (Biden +8)
Sep 15 - 42% - 53% (Biden +11)
Sep 14 - 39% - 49% (Biden +10)
Sep 8 - 43% - 50% (Biden +7)
Sep 7 - 42% - 52% (Biden +10)
Arizona (11) Biden seems to hold a steady lead, but has a hard time breaking that 50% barrier making this a state that could swing either way.
Sep 16 - 42% - 47% (Biden +5)
Sep 15 - 40% - 49% (Biden +9)
Sep 15 - 47% - 48% (Biden +1)
Sep 13 - 40% - 45% (Biden +5)
Sep 11 - 44% - 47% (Biden +3)
Sep 11 - 48% - 50% (Biden +2)
Sep 10 - 42% - 52% (Biden +10)
Wisconsin (10) Biden has a strong lead in polls, frequently crossing the 50% barrier prior to the undecided voters being allocated
Sep 16 - 41% - 47% (Biden +6)
Sep 16 - 42% - 51% (Biden +9)
Sep 13 - 42% - 52% (Biden +10)
Sep 13 - 46% - 52% (Biden +6)
Sep 10 - 43% - 48% (Biden +5)
Nevada (6) Not much polling, and lots of undecideds. Could swing either way
Sep 10 - 42% - 46% (Biden +4)
Aug 30 - 39% - 44% (Biden +5)
New Hampshire (4) Not much polling, and the recent poll wasn’t as favorable for Biden
Sep 11 - 42% - 45% (Biden +3)
Aug 17 - 43% - 51% (Biden +8)

Tossups (60 votes) These are all must-win states for Trump. He needs to win these three plus at least two of the Leans Biden states to win.
Florida (29) Not a lot of undecided voters in these polls, and very narrow margins for Biden
Sep 13 - 46% - 50% (Biden +4)
Sep 13 - 42% - 43% (Biden +1)
Sep 12 - 50% - 50% (Even)
Sep 8 - 47% - 50% (Biden +3)
Sep 7 - 45% - 50% (Biden +5)
Sep 6 - 48% - 48% (Even)
Sep 6 - 46% - 49% (Biden +3)
Georgia (16) Trump’s support is consistently between 46% and 48% in the polls. Biden will need momentum and undecideds to largely break his way in order to win this state
Sep 7 - 48% - 46% (Trump +2)
Sep 5 - 46% - 47% (Biden +1)
Aug 31 - 48% - 41% (Trump +7)
Aug 30 - 46% - 52% (Biden +6)
Aug 30 - 46% - 49% (Biden +3)
North Carolina (15) Maybe the closest race in the nation.
Sep 16 - 44% - 45% (Biden +1)
Sep 14 - 43% - 47% (Biden +4)
Sep 13 - 47% - 47% (Even)
Sep 13 - 46% - 49% (Biden +3)
Sep 13 - 43% - 45% (Biden +2)
Sep 11 - 48% - 46% (Trump +2)

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Weekly update, now with my current prediction and sum totals at the bottom of the post!

New polls shown, I’d put the old ones in spoilers but I don’t know how to do that on this site yet.

223 Biden to 126 Trump in states not shown below that I consider “guarantees” for each side. (note: I’m including all of Maine for Biden and all of Nebraska for Trump here, with the simplifying assumption that NE-2/ME-2 split 1-1.)

States to watch and recent polling:

Leans Trump (62 votes) If Trump loses any of these states it’s probably a blowout for Biden.
Texas (38)
Sep 18 - 48% - 46% (Trump +2)
Ohio (18)
Iowa (6)
Sep 17 - 47% - 47% (Even)
Leans Biden (56 votes)
Pennsylvania (20) The most recent polls have Biden still ahead, but a narrower lead and not exceeding 50% anymore. Still more likely that he wins this state, but it’s getting tighter.
Sep 20 - 45% - 49% (Biden +4)
Sep 17 - 45% - 47% (Biden +2)
Sep 16 - 46% - 49% (Biden +3)
Michigan (16) I’m about ready to call this state for Biden. I’ll leave it in here for now since Trump won it last time, but it isn’t close.
Sep 20 - 43% - 51% (Biden +8)
Sep 19 - 41% - 46% (Biden +5)
Sep 16 - 44% - 49% (Biden +5)
Wisconsin (10) Another state that seems ready to call for Biden, but leaving it in since Trump won it last time.
Sep 20 - 42% - 51% (Biden +9)
Nevada (6) No new polls
New Hampshire (4) No new polls

Tossups (71 votes)
Florida (29) Trump got a huge +4 poll recently from ABC/Washington Post, a reputable poller. However he still trails in all the other polls done during the same time period. You could almost say this state is a tossup.
Sep 22 - 47% - 50% (Biden +3)
Sep 20 - 51% - 47% (Trump +4)
Sep 20 - 46% - 49% (Biden +3)
Sep 18 - 46% - 48% (Biden +2)
Sep 14 - 44% - 47% (Biden +3)
Georgia (16) Still a very close race.
Sep 20 - 47% - 47% (Even)
Sep 16 - 46% - 49% (Biden +3)
Sep 16 - 46% - 45% (Trump +1)
North Carolina (15) Still extremely close, though Biden seems to narrowly lead.
Sep 18 - 49% - 51% (Biden +2)
Sep 16 - 47% - 47% (Even)
Arizona (11) One new poll with Trump ahead by a point is making me move this state to the Tossups category.
Sep 20 - 49% - 48% (Trump +1)

Current Prediction
Trump: 204 126 Guaranteed + 62 Leans Trump + 16 Tossups (GA)
Biden: 334 223 Guaranteed + 56 Leans Biden + 55 Tossups (FL, NC, AZ)

Weekly Update

Changes:

  • New Hampshire now guaranteed for Biden. One random +3 poll had me put it in the “Leans Biden” category, but we just got two new polls of +9 and +14 for Biden lining up with previous polls and putting this state off the table.
  • Ohio has moved from Leans Trump to Tossup
  • Iowa has moved from Leans Trump to Tossup

New polls shown below.

227 Biden to 126 Trump in states not shown below that I consider “guarantees” for each side. (note: I’m including all of Maine for Biden and all of Nebraska for Trump here, with the simplifying assumption that NE-2/ME-2 split 1-1.)

States to watch and recent polling:

Leans Trump (38 votes)

  • Texas (38) Texas is still leaning heavily to Trump and would take quite a bit to flip those last few percent
    Sep 26 - 48% - 48% (Even)
    Sep 25 - 50% - 46% (Trump +4)
    Sep 22 - 48% - 46% (Trump +2)
    Sep 22 - 46% - 45% (Trump +1)
    Sep 21 - 50% - 45% (Trump +5)

Leans Biden (52 votes) If Biden wins PA, MI, and WI, he wins the election. He can afford to lose some of these states if he wins any of the tossup states

  • Pennsylvania (20) Biden’s recent polls here have been really good for him, very bad news for Trump as he needs this state
    Sep 27 - 40% - 49% (Biden +9)
    Sep 26 - 45% - 54% (Biden +9)
    Sep 26 - 45% - 50% (Biden +5)
    Sep 23 - 44% - 51% (Biden +7)

  • Michigan (16) The two close polls here, +2 Biden and +1 Trump, are both from Trafalgar group - a known Republican biased poll. This race doesn’t seem close from any other poller
    Sep 28 - 47% - 49% (Biden +2) Trafalgar
    Sep 23 - 44% - 52% (Biden +8)
    Sep 22 - 47% - 46% (Trump +1) Trafalgar
    Sep 21 - 45% - 51% (Biden +6)
    Sep 20 - 43% - 51% (Biden +8)

  • Wisconsin (10)
    Sep 26 - 46% - 48% (Biden +2)
    Sep 25 - 45% - 48% (Biden +3) Trafalgar
    Sep 24 - 44% - 54% (Biden +10)
    Sep 20 - 42% - 51% (Biden +9)

  • Nevada (6)
    Sep 25 - 41% - 46% (Biden +5)
    Sep 25 - 48% - 49% (Biden +1) Rasumussen
    Sep 23 - 41% - 52% (Biden +11)
    Sep 21 - 43% - 47% (Biden +4)

Tossups (99 votes) Every one of these states, except maybe Iowa, is a must-win for Trump given his standings in the Leans Biden states above. If he loses any of these states it is hard to see him winning.

  • Florida (29) One poll showed Trump up, but the others all show Biden with a slight lead. A tossup state and one that could be an early indicator on election night
    Sep 26 - 42% - 46% (Biden +4)
    Sep 22 - 43% - 46% (Biden +3)
    Sep 22 - 47% - 50% (Biden +3)
    Sep 20 - 51% - 47% (Trump +4)
    Sep 20 - 46% - 49% (Biden +3)

  • Ohio (18) Close polls lately. The +5 for Biden seems more like an outlier, but all recent polls have gone towards Biden. A bad sign for Trump given this one used to lean his way. From Biden’s perspective this gives yet another large state in case one of his ‘leans Biden’ states doesn’t go his way on election night
    Sep 23 - 45% - 50% (Biden +5)
    Sep 22 - 44% - 45% (Biden +1)
    Sep 21 - 47% - 48% (Biden +1)

  • Georgia (16) Still, surprisingly to me, a very close race.
    Sep 29 - 47% - 50% (Biden +3)
    Sep 27 - 47% - 50% (Biden +3)
    Sep 25 - 47% - 46% (Trump +1)
    Sep 21 - 49% - 46% (Trump +3)
    Sep 21 - 45% - 45% (Even)

  • North Carolina (15) Still extremely close, another one to watch on election night as a key indicator.
    Sep 25 - 46% - 48% (Biden +2)
    Sep 25 - 49% - 48% (Trump +1)
    Sep 22 - 46% - 46% (Even)
    Sep 20 - 45% - 44% (Trump +1)

  • Arizona (11) This is one of the few states on this list that has been trending toward Trump over the last few weeks. The margins are still very close.
    Sep 28 - 46% - 47% (Biden +1)
    Sep 22 - 46% - 45% (Trump +1)

  • Iowa (6) This state is getting closer, with the last three polls averaging out to an even race
    Sep 22 - 42% - 45% (Biden +3)
    Sep 22 - 49% - 46% (Trump +3)
    Sep 17 - 47% - 47% (Even)

Current Prediction
Trump: 197 126 Guaranteed + 38 Leans Trump + 33 Tossups (IA, AZ, GA)
Biden: 341 227 Guaranteed + 52 Leans Biden + 62 Tossups (FL, OH, NC)

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Weekly Update (though not sure anyone but myself reads this)

Changes:

  • Florida has moved from Tossup to Leans Biden
  • Arizona has moved from Tossup to Leans Biden

Polls show that both the debate and Trump getting COVID have helped Biden - whether those impacts last four more weeks until election is yet to be seen, but if the election were today it would be a landslide.

New polls shown below.

227 Biden to 126 Trump in states not shown below that I consider “guarantees” for each side. (note: I’m including all of Maine for Biden and all of Nebraska for Trump here, with the simplifying assumption that NE-2/ME-2 split 1-1.)

States to watch and recent polling:

Leans Trump (38 votes)

  • Texas (38) Three of the last four polls have Texas as a dead-heat. Biden has just announced he will spend $6M in advertising there. Republicans needing to spend any money in Texas is pretty bad news for them.
    Oct 6 - 48% - 48% (Even)
    Oct 2 - 49% - 49% (Even)
    Sep 27 - 49% - 47% (Trump +2)
    Sep 26 - 48% - 48% (Even)

Leans Biden (92 votes) Biden only needs 43 electoral votes from this category to win the election, in any combination. Winning Florida or Pennsylvania would allow many different paths to victory

  • Florida (29) Biden’s lead is widening in this state moving Florida into the Leans Biden category. The double digit lead and even polls are both likely outliers, but they average out to the plus 5 or so that the other polls are showing.
    Oct 5 - 40% - 51% (Biden +11)
    Oct 4 - 45% - 51% (Biden +6)
    Oct 4 - 45% - 45% (Even)
    Oct 4 - 46% - 50% (Biden +4)
    Oct 1 - 42% - 47% (Biden +5)

  • Pennsylvania (20) Lots of polls, lots of good news for Biden here. While the lead may not be as high as some other states, he is at or above 50% in nearly all the polls with very few undecided voters.
    Oct 5 - 41% - 54% (Biden +13)
    Oct 5 - 45% - 50% (Biden +5)
    Oct 5 - 47% - 51% (Biden +4)
    Oct 4 - 44% - 54% (Biden +10)
    Oct 4 - 46% - 50% (Biden +4)
    Oct 2 - 42% - 49% (Biden +7)
    Oct 2 - 44% - 51% (Biden +7)

  • Michigan (16) Biden is crushing it here as well. More undecided voters than PA, but he is already at his 50% mark.
    Oct 6 - 43% - 51% (Biden +8)
    Oct 4 - 43% - 51% (Biden +8)
    Oct 3 - 39% - 48% (Biden +9)
    Oct 1 - 44% - 50% (Biden +6)

  • Arizona (11) Good polling for Biden lately brings AZ back to the Lean Biden camp
    Oct 5 - 43% - 48% (Biden +5)
    Oct 5 - 45% - 46% (Biden +1)
    Oct 4 - 45% - 51% (Biden +6)
    Oct 3 - 41% - 49% (Biden +8)
    Sep 30 - 46% - 50% (Biden +4)

  • Wisconsin (10) Of WI, MI, and PA I actually think WI has the highest chance of surprising and flipping red on election night. Not likely, but feels less “safe”.
    Oct 5 - 44% - 50% (Biden +6)
    Oct 4 - 42% - 47% (Biden +5)
    Oct 4 - 44% - 51% (Biden +7)

  • Nevada (6) only one new poll in NV, and it is in line with what we have seen before. This is the only state Clinton won that Trump even has a (small) chance of winning
    Oct 6 - 42% - 48% (Biden +6)

Tossups (55 votes) Every one of these states, except maybe Iowa, is a must-win for Trump given his standings in the Leans Biden states above. If he loses any of these states it is hard to see him winning.

  • Ohio (18) Ohio doesn’t get polled as often as some of these other close states, but it remains a very tight race overall
    Oct 6 - 44% - 45% (Biden +1)
    Oct 3 - 48% - 44% (Trump +4) Trafalgar
    Oct 2 - 47% - 47% (Even)

  • Georgia (16) No October polling yet, but Biden leads slightly in the most recent September polls. Given Biden has only increased his lead in October over where he was in September, GA is primed to flip D for the first time since 1992
    Sep 30 - 45% - 47% (Biden +2)
    Sep 29 - 47% - 50% (Biden +3)

  • North Carolina (15) Remains close with a slight Biden edge
    Oct 6 - 47% - 47% (Even)
    Oct 5 - 46% - 50% (Biden +4)
    Oct 4 - 47% - 50% (Biden +3)
    Oct 4 - 47% - 49% (Biden +2)

  • Iowa (6) Still anyone’s game in Iowa, a state that Trump won by 9.5% in 2016
    Oct 6 - 47% - 48% (Biden +1)
    Oct 5 - 45% - 50% (Biden +5)
    Sep 28 - 49% - 45% (Trump+4)

Current Prediction
Trump: 188 126 Guaranteed + 38 Leans Trump + 24 Tossups (IA, OH)
Biden: 350 227 Guaranteed + 92 Leans Biden + 31 Tossups (GA, NC)

I read it - thanks for posting! It’ll be interesting to see how his hospital stay shifts things.

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It seems like polls broke sharply for Biden while Trump was in the hospital, I am expecting that to come back to baseline (which is still favoring Biden) now that he is out of the hospital. So instead of being +14 he will come back to +9 or so.

The sudden change in the Biden NC vote is almost certainly being affected by the recent news of the Dem senate candidate’s having an affair. He is not pulling out of the race as of now but it has been very public this week.

Voting has already started in many states. Even if the polls fall back to a baseline, this improved position for Biden will likely have some impact on the final vote counts.

Are you referring to this as the sudden change?

I probably wouldn’t rely on one poll to tell me much here just given random variation between polls. It will be interesting to see if that NC affair impacts Biden or just hurts the guy running for Senate. My gut says only the Senate race is impacted, but who knows.

Agreed - the early voting really helps Biden right now in the case of any large unexpected October surprises.

This site is cool for tracking early voting: https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html
Over 6 million people have already voted, including over 1 million in Florida, 400,000 in NC, and 600,000 in WI and MI.

Unless we can figure out a way to throw out the early votes.

[/Republican]

Update with three weeks to go!

11.5 Million people have already voted in the nation (myself included). This includes 1.8 Million in FL, 1 Million in MI, 700K in WI, 600K in GA, and 500K in NC. A record number with three weeks to go, but we are in an abnormal year. While I think it is early to read anything into the party advantage of D’s voting, this does start to “lock-in” the advantage that Biden has in today’s environment, and dampens future changes from surprise events.

Changes:

  • Michigan moves from Leans Biden to guaranteed Biden. Biden has been consistently over 50% in polls, with an average of 8% lead. Yes, there was a large polling error in MI in 2016, but there was also a dearth of quality polling being done and those averages largely rely on local news polling. Additionally there were way more undecided voters and Clinton was averaging in the upper 40’s, not the low 50’s. Now with the high quality polling places focusing on Michigan, you wouldn’t expect more than a 3% polling error at the most, a far cry from 8%. 22% of 2016 turnout has already voted here as well. This state is a lock. Trump has cancelled TV advertising here lately.
  • Wisconsin moves from Leans Biden to guaranteed Biden. 24% of 2016 turnout has already voted this year. They are being polled constantly by high quality firms and constantly showing 7-10% margin. Similar to Michigan, I’ll watch in case the polling tightens in the last few weeks, but it looks dire. Trump has cancelled TV advertising here lately.
  • North Carolina moves from Tossups to Leans Biden.

New polls shown below.

253 Biden to 126 Trump in states not shown below that I consider “guarantees” for each side. (note: I’m including all of Maine for Biden and all of Nebraska for Trump here, with the simplifying assumption that NE-2/ME-2 split 1-1.)

States to watch and recent polling:

Leans Trump (38 votes)

  • Texas (38) While it may or may not happen this election, as polling has remained within the margin of error, Texas is a prime target for D’s moving forward as 80% of Texans live in major cities or their suburbs right now
    Oct 11 - 49% - 47% (Trump +2)
    Oct 8 - 49% - 50% (Biden +1)

Leans Biden (66 votes) Biden only needs 17 more electoral votes to win the election. Between the Leans Biden states and the tossup states, there are lots of ways (including just FL, PA, or OH by themselves) to get there.

  • Florida (29) The only poll recently to show Trump with a lead recently was conducted by Sean Hannity’s personal pollster with results on Hannity’s blog. Every other poll has Trump with a consistent margin. Banking 1.7 Million votes during this time, or about 18% of 2016 turnout, has started Trump out in a hole. Additionally, look at how few undecided voters there are in these recent polls. Biden has 51% in three of them, meaning he just has to keep the people already going for him.
    Oct 12 - 48% - 51% (Biden +3)
    Oct 11 - 46% - 51% (Biden +5)
    Oct 10 - 47% - 51% (Biden +4)
    Oct 6 - 44% - 49% (Biden +5)

  • Pennsylvania (20) You know it’s bad news for the Republican when even Trafalgar group, which runs to the right of Rasmussen, shows the Democrats with a lead. Only 7% of PA has voted already, so Biden hasn’t really started to bank his advantage yet, but with a 7% average lead in most polls, Trump has a lot of room to make up
    Oct 12 - 45% - 47% (Biden +2) Trafalgar
    Oct 11 - 44% - 52% (Biden +8)
    Oct 11 - 45% - 51% (Biden +7)

  • North Carolina (15) Very few undecided voters in North Carolina, and Biden has been right around 50% before allocating them. It’s still close, but Biden has a 3 or so point lead right now
    Oct 11 - 47% - 50% (Biden +3)
    Oct 11 - 46% - 50% (Biden +4)

  • Arizona (11) Trafalgar still finds a lead for Trump in this state, but everyone else is giving Biden a few point lead, though with a decent number of undecideds and Biden not yet hitting 50%, this one can still flip.
    Oct 11 - 46% - 49% (Biden +3)
    Oct 8 - 48% - 44% (Trump +4) Trafalgar
    Oct 7 - 46% - 48% (Biden +2)
    Oct 7 - 43% - 49% (Biden +7)
    Oct 6 - 45% - 48% (Biden +3)

  • Nevada (6) only one new poll in NV, with the same +6 we have seen before.
    Oct 9 - 46% - 52% (Biden +6)

Tossups (40 votes) Tossup states polling has been favorable to Trump lately, but these are all “nice to have” states for Biden and “must have” for Trump

  • Ohio (18) Reputable polling companies are not doing frequent polling in Ohio, so this one is open to swinging a large amount one way or the other on election day compared to what the small-timer polls are showing.
    Oct 11 - 49% - 46% (Trump +3)
    Oct 8 - 47% - 45% (Trump +2)
    Oct 6 - 44% - 45% (Biden +1)

  • Georgia (16) Georgia got it’s first batch of October polls, and good news for Trump here, though these aren’t the most rigorous polling organizations. There were long lines for early voting yesterday here, and by all accounts more D than R voters voting early, which is good news for Democrats as it both serves to bank the vote now and reduce lines in the future potentially allowing more voters to not get discouraged on election day itself
    Oct 11 - 49% - 47% (Trump +2)
    Oct 9 - 46% - 47% (Biden +1)
    Oct 7 - 49% - 47% (Trump +2)
    Oct 6 - 48% - 46% (Trump +2)

  • Iowa (6) Nobody cares about Iowa, because if Biden is winning Iowa then it’s blowout.
    Oct 9 - 49% - 49% (Even)
    Oct 6 - 47% - 48% (Biden +1)

Current Prediction
Trump: 188 126 Guaranteed + 38 Leans Trump + 24 Tossups (IA, OH)
Biden: 350 253 Guaranteed + 66 Leans Biden + 16 Tossups (GA)

Help me understand the “Guaranteed”. Are those real numbers? I mean, you never know how real polls are, but are those guaranteed numbers locked in for sure, or could they still change?

Just trying to gauge how exactly excited I should be getting about these numbers.

I don’t believe anything is “guaranteed” until the votes have been counted. Once the number of outstanding ballots is smaller than the margin, THEN I will believe that state is a lock.

In the sense that everyone could all of a sudden change their mind and Trump wins California, there technically isn’t a “guarantee”. Also, there are always external factors that could impact this - like if Biden gets arrested or ends up hospitalized from COVID - those could change this.

BUT if nothing extreme happens, my “guaranteed” numbers represent me feeling >95% confident that those states will vote the way they do. Though I freely admit I have been focused more on the D states than the R states, so I would be less surprised that a guaranteed R state like Alaska or Montana flips than any state I have guaranteed as D (not that I think those are likely, but I haven’t really looked at them).

Thanks for the explanations. It makes sense and is what I figured, I just wanted to make sure I wasn’t missing something.

I like to read this stuff, partially because I like to believe that Biden has a good chance. I note that your state-by-state aligns pretty well with 538’s “winding road”.

The big October event would be Biden getting covid and being noticeably sicker than Trump. One photo of Biden looking like a sick, weak, old man could move a lot of votes.
(Not mine, I’d pick Harris over Trump any day.)

I certainly do not wish Biden ill. But “Biden might not finish out his term” is MORE reason to be excited to vote for the ticket, not less.

:iatp: