2020 Election State-by-State Outlook

[twig93]

@jraven

If the list of absentee voters must be public, publish that information on Nov 4th. Making the information publicly available prior to the election needlessly opens the door to electoral fraud, or at least raises the spectre of it. In the current environment that’s profoundly stupid.

It is heavily used by political campaigns in the days leading up to elections to know which voters to target.

[twig93]

@Lucy

I’ve never seen “absentee” as a field

Did you live in a state with a significant amount of absentee voters to where that would have been useful information?

I haven’t seen it either because I only volunteered on campaigns in Oregon which was 100% absentee so there would have been no point. But I can’t imagine that it’s info that the Board of Elections would be permitted to keep secret post-FOIA. They have to turn it all over except how you actually vote (which they themselves are not supposed to know).

[1695814]

@twig93

Do you have the GA Special and GA mixed up? I believe the GA special is in the bag for the Dem and the GA regular is a toss up.

I don’t remember the history…but there was a big movement in the last 24 hours…indeed, that’s what I saw the last time I looked at the markets.

“PredictIt is currently unavailable due to technical issues. Our staff is working diligently to restore service as soon as possible. Thank you for your patience.” so I can’t give you an up to minute update.

[1695814]

Looks like I got PA & AZ wrong…and maybe, just maybe MI, too.

[1695814]

@1695814

Final prediction: 290 D - 248 R

Final v2 prediction 270 D - 268 R

Let’s see your electoral vote for faith spotted eagle now, Democrat Electors!