No. While I think that something significantly worse than January 6th is unlikely, there’s enough of a chance that it’s factoring into my household disaster planning, and I pushed to have “political unrest” on the risk matrix at work this year.
However, I think the most likely outcome of Trump losing at the polls is an increase in the toxicity of political debate in the US, and separation of reality vs “alternative reality”.
And now, thanks to the timing of the SOCTUS consideration of Trump’s immunity defense, I think we also have a chance of the federal January 6th verdict coming down around election time, aggravating the risk.
If I were Muslim, I would remember that Trump did the following:
Moved the embassy to Jerusalem
Tried to block all immigration from Arab nations
Along with his Jewish son-in-law helped Israel normalize relationships with much of the middle east which harmed the Palestinian cause for statehood tremendously
Not sure that the current conflict would win out, especially when I personally think that Trump would not do much to stop the conflict either. (you can reference his recent NATO comments)
I’m 110% sure that regardless of how close or a blowout this election is, if Biden wins, 2024 will go down in history with 2020 as an election stolen by massive late-night dumps.
My wife was doing some tidying up today and came across some of her family’s political buttons. Some appealing Democrats in those old contests (although Adlai was too cerebral to get the 1960 nomination).
Trumps age is just as much a problem, it might actually be a bigger concern than Biden. How many times has he referenced Obama when mentioning the election? We all know he’s obsessed with trying to prove he’s as good as Obama because, reasons, but this seems like classic alzheimers.
The media is doing a terrible job reporting on this. He gets a pass because of all the nonsense and verbal diarrhea he emits, but there are plenty of signs of real problems.
Not as much a pass, but to rebut everything he says would take up too much time. And, it needs to be done, in a public forum where most people will read it. (So, not the internet, where people pick and choose what they read.)
The corporate media has determined that honest issue-based coverage is bad for profits. A lopsided presidential season* which is what we should have if it is Trump challenging President Biden would reduce overall media consumption so they do whatever they can to make it a close race. I was disgusted the other day to hear NPR playing this game with some of their analysis even after they stated the lopsided facts of the issue. The American people are ignorant of the issues not because they do not care about issues but because educated consumers are not as profitable as ignorant ones.
BIden’s is 3 years older but Trump is significantly in poorer mental and physical health. Any life actuaries that know underwiting want to weigh in on this?
The economy is doing great by most measures this is good for Biden.
Trump and his GOP lackies holding up the bipartisan bill on the border is a huge win for Biden (Did you see Biden call out Trump publicly asking for him to meet to get the bill passed? If you didn’t see that think about why. link below)
Foreign policy? Biden’s problems are coming from the progressive left, Trump would be significantly worse.
I agree that his memory is now beginning to fail him, and the media is not reporting it due the mass of lies he spews on a daily basis.
But that is the unfortunate reality that we are dealing with.
Only way that I see for this to “hurt” him politically is if he keeps making the same mistakes over the next few months. At that point, the trend will be very hard to ignore.
In the same speech he stopped in the middle of words like he could remember what they were. And his butchering of Venezuela is Coveffee level of unpronounceable.
Over the weekend he also talked about how he wants to get all of the Romney types out of the Republican party, it’s MAGA only. If you have traditional Republican beliefs, Trump doesn’t want you in your party. I guess he doesn’t want your vote either. So much for Reagan’s big tent ideals.
Well, they’ve been cheering at CPAC “we are all domestic terrorists” and “2024 will be the death of democracy”.
I’d say beginning in the 2020 election and continuing through 2024, MAGA has shifted from “a new and powerful wing of the GOP” like the Tea Party was, and has now become “The MAGA Party, fall in line or you’re a cuck”.
They’ve abandoned most of their ideals. Honestly they have very few party positions outside of xenophobia, homo/transphobia, isolationism, and racism. Minimize education, eliminate corporate income tax, eliminate environmental/safety regulations, encourage trickle-down economics.
The wealthy thinking class of the MAGA Party filter down what the rubes are supposed to believe, whether it’s Caravan Season or CRT or kids shitting in kitty litter boxes or book readings.
Donald Trump supporters have been creating and sharing AI-generated fake images of black voters to encourage African Americans to vote Republican.
BBC Panorama discovered dozens of deepfakes portraying black people as supporting the former president.
[T]here’s no evidence directly linking these images to Mr Trump’s campaign.
A creator of one of the images told the BBC: “I’m not claiming it’s accurate.”
“I’m not claiming it is accurate. I’m not saying, ‘Hey, look, Donald Trump was at this party with all of these African American voters. Look how much they love him!’” he said.
“If anybody’s voting one way or another because of one photo they see on a Facebook page, that’s a problem with that person, not with the post itself.”
