Added, for accuracy.
3 Likes
Trump, unprompted while campaigning at a school, recounts allegations that he had Russian hookers pee on a mattress and/or him. In the retelling he adds a detail that there were four hookers. He shares he was worried what Melania would do but that âshe didnât believe that oneâ because heâs a germophobe.
Maybe he thought the urine would act as a disinfectant.
Bueller?
Bueller?
Bueller?
Bueller?
Bueller?
Come on Dâs donât blow this shit again.
Please please please donât blow this shit.
1 Like
Considering his age, thereâs a nontrivial chance that he might not make it to election day.
I donât have life tables handy, but I think we went through the exercise of quantifying that risk previously.
Been awhile since I actually used life tables in exams or work, but about 1 year I estimated the chance to die for both Trump and Biden in the next 2 years. I think I found a male smoker table for Trump, eyeballing his girth and rage and diet and sleep habits, subtracting no alcohol, to probably be around as bad as cigarettes.
I remember both of their death chances being in the 6-8% area during that 2 year period. Obviously going into their terms that goes up. Canât recall who was higher, the younger and presumed unhealthier Trump or Biden.
(And hey, prove me wrong, Iâd love to know.)
I will prove you wrong, as both Biden and Trump are continuously being underwritten.
Using a recent IRS table about 4.5% chance Biden doesnât make it to the election and about 13.3% he doesnât survive a 2nd term.
Whoops, typo carrying over my results 23.3%, thx twig.
1 Like
That seems strange. 4.5 for 1 year, but only 13.3 for 4 (assuming survivsl until jan 2025?)?
Iâm getting better!
Youâre not fooling anyone
FWIW, I came up with survival odds of roughly 95.7% and 78.9% using the IRS 2024 table and UDD. (Chance or surviving from yesterday until November 5, 2024 and January 20, 2029)
I wonder if he meant 23.3⌠thatâs in the same ballpark as my number.
1 Like
Nikki Haley looking more promising
1 Like
Trying to remember how the Kochs approached 2016. I think they sat it out and didnât take an active role for or against Trump, but they definitely werenât for him. I also want to say in 2020 the Kochs responded to the GOPâs attempted crowning of Trump as the partyâs emperor by sitting on the sidelines writ large and only put money toward a few candidates.
Will it matter for 2024? I think itâs a longshot unless the Kochs figure out how to tap into Republican messaging strategy to convince the Trumpistani to abandon him.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-koch-idUSKCN10C2W8/
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/426902-koch-network-will-not-back-trump-for-reelection-report/
From August 2016 and from 2020.
They were very happy to back conservative think tanks who worked closely with him but fell short of cult worship, they just used the hand they were dealt.
They are anti-Trump now because they are losing their influence.
Its always been about that for them.
1 Like
The first article is from August 2016, when we all assumed that Hillary Clinton would be the 45th POTUS.
So while you might not like the Koch brothers (I donât either) it seems like they were legitimately never on Team Trump.
Yeah, Iâd say they are more lawful evil than chaotic evil. 
8 Likes
Pretty much.
They had already damaged our systems to be in their favor for decades after they start to burn in hell.
They do not want someone to break what they have built for themselves.
2 Likes
Yeah, thatâs a reasonable assessment.
