I think subbing someone else in for Biden certainly helps the Dems standing in the audience of concerned, high income professionals who can afford to scroll news sites during working hours, as well as coastal elites who write OpEds in national, Liberal newspapers. But these aren’t the people who decide the election.
How much does Biden’s age hurt him with the median voter? Not as much as people think, I suspect. Trump is also old. The median voter is old. Old people are the most reliable to show up at the polls. My parents are old. My coworkers are old. They mix up names and trail off all the time. Does Biden’s behavior even register as abnormal to the people who will have the strongest say in the election? If that were the case, I think the Republicans would attack Biden on this more. Instead, they mostly stick to attacking his record (which is good, IMO, but that’s neither here nor there).
I understand he’s behind in the polls, but this was true before the debate, too. He’s an unpopular president running against an historically unpopular president who beat an unpopular candidate in 2016 and replaced another guy who was underwater with popularity at the time. There is at least a decent chance, that the people who answer polls these days are malcontents who hate everybody. They’ll hate Harris or Newsom, too.
I see a lot of people complaining he’s so old. Also, while the economy may be doing decent, I’m seeing a lot of stuff about young people priced out of the housing market.
Homeownership rate across all generations is higher now than it was at any point in Trump’s administration. Gen Z homeownership is tracking above that of Millennials and Gen X. I’m not saying you’re wrong. People vote on how they feel moreso than what the data says. Just saying it’s hard to run against vibes.
If we put Harris in, do young people feel more priced into the housing market? Hard to say.
Biden is old because the media is amplifying his every gaffe. Trump is also old and makes a shitload of gaffes, but that’s not being broadcast nearly as often - and certainly not nearly as often as it had been in the past.
Some of this is because the media needs to manufacture drama to get viewers to sell ads to make money. Some of this is because an election that’s largely decided on July 18 hurts ratings, so even just having the perception that the election is close is something that will be reported on. Some of this is also because the media made a shitload of money off people tuning in to watch Trump in 2016 and 2020, so it will do that again in 2024. [Yes, there’s overlap between those buckets.]
If/when Trump gets a lead and starts stretching it out too far, the media will turn on him and point out his mistakes and highlight those if for no other reason than to keep drama alive and people tuned in. Thus far, though, Trump has been composed enough to not look terrible in comparison. As long as he can keep that image seared in people’s minds, he’s going to look more credible as a President for the next 4 years than Biden.
Remember when 99.5% of newspapers endorsed Clinton in 2016, and all the big money donors who would be stressed about this sort of thing gave her tons of money, and then she won? ; )
people dont seem to care about data and reality. i am always stunned by biden’s low approval numbers given the actual metrics. or maybe im missing something?
Am I an outlier because I think the problem is both the candidate AND the platform/policies? Here’s the part I don’t get.
It’s no secret that a lot of old line, dependable Republicans are unhappy with Trump and his policies. No doubt they are pretty centrist compared to the current MAGA profile.
So why not adjust the platform, make concessions to that right of center viewpoint? But no, the D platform gets pushed increasingly further left, more progressive. This is not the way to win elections. The problems we face are planetary in scale. We are going to have to create a coalition of nations to secure a future - whatever the hell it is. Might as well start at home.
/rant
thats the high variance play: try to appeal to trump hating republicans while trying to get your base to show at the polls. i think whitmer can pull it off.
Biden passed CHIPS, BIL. These things were on Trump’s plate while he has 54 Senators and he never got it done because his administration was straight chaos. I assume normal Republicans would rather not see us cuck out to Russia and China on Ukraine/Taiwan. Biden is better on that than Trump.
I guess a lot that Heritage Foundation document is conservative but not inherently Trumpy. But if Dems are gonna start curtailing California and Washington’s legitimately good attempts at improving housing costs and cutting carbon emissions to win Republican votes in other states, it’s not worth winning, IMO.
I agree both are arguably too old for the job. However, 3 or 4 years older in your late 70s early 80s has a big impact on your probability of making it another 4 years. Trumps probability of dying is 0.053, Biden’s is nearly 50% higher at 0.078. Add on the possibility of having reduced mental capacity due to age related conditions, Biden seems like a much riskier option.
I don’t think Biden dropping out for Harris / Newsome / Whitmer is likely to flip many votes. However, I could see having one of the above and particularly Harris boosting turnout among younger voters.
This is key, since right now the D side has absolutely zero energy behind the campaign while the R base is very high energy. Plus how many random people who aren’t engaged in politics have been saying “anyone but Biden or Trump” or “someone under 70” and then getting that option may get additional people to vote.