CNN shows the time of last update. AZ has been stuck at 9:20AM all day.
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Here are results for the ten largest counties in the district. Boebert leading Mesa with 7% outstanding, sheâll pick up a few votes there I think. But Frisch is +11% in Pueblo with 29% outstanding, is there reason to believe that the 29% not yet counted will skew heavily R? And then Garfield has a bit left and I suppose the same question. Very nearly all of the other counties are >95% counted so I doubt thereâs much juice to squeeze for either there.
538 did not see this coming yesterday. I mean, there is the 3%, but safe to say this was not anticipated when folks were looking at polling data and what not.
I actually think 538 did a pretty good job predicting this year for the senate. The house is probably harder to project.
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Agreed. It must be hard. Polling errors aside, whether America goes blue or red always comes down to 0.01% of the population.
I donât think that Boebert will âwinâ Pueblo County, but she will get enough votes to make the margin narrower. Narrow enough that the votes from Mesa (and the remaining R counties) will fall in her favor.
Youâll note that Pueblo County is âbarely blueâ and Mesa County is âbarely redâ . . . but Mesa County has ~4k more âvotesâ coming in. I expect that the Mesa County â+13â is likely to get a bit larger (probably end at +14) but the Pueblo County â+11â for Frisch is going to get smaller (Iâm going to guess that itâll end up at +9 or so).
In fact, as I was writing this post, Pueblo County updated and Frisch is +10.
Donât you feel like your vote counts!
So like 16 seed vs 1 seed in March Madness. I think thatâs happened before in the NCAA.
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Right, but thatâs polling data of likely voters. Itâs not an exit poll and Iâm not sure with mail-in voting that exit polls are even possible anymore. In any case, if you can influence voter participation in some way, then you can influence the election outcome and potentially it diverges from polling. Historically, certain things influencing participation like polling place problems are rectified directly on election day by allowing the polling place to stay open longer, for example.
I posted about this prior to the election, but after HR1 failed, Biden issued executive order 14019, which generated some interest as it:
ordered all federal agencies to submit plans to Bidenâs domestic policy advisor (Susan Rice) to âpromote voter registration and voter participation.â It also mandates the agencies work with approved 3rd party organizations to provide registration services on federal agency premises.
This generated some interest from legal groups and a number of sternly worded letters from Congressional Republicans asserting it may be unconstitutional, that the DOJ was stonewalling on providing any details, in addition to concerns with how fair Federal agencies may be in application of the EO. Of course, the Biden admin simply ran out the clock and the election already happened without knowing full details of how the EO was implemented. Oh well.
https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/23166959-letter-to-ag-garland-re-eo-14019
Colorado 3rd Congressional District
Vote Summary
| County | Leader w/Margin | Votes In | % Votes In | Est. Votes Left |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mesa | Boebert +13 | 68,210 | 93% | 5,000 |
| Pueblo | Frisch +10 | 53,065 | 77% | 16,000 |
| La Plata | Frisch +26 | 28,911 | >95% | <1,500 |
| Garfield | Frisch +15 | 21,278 | 86% | 3,000 |
| Montrose | Boebert +26 | 20,283 | >95% | <900 |
| Delta | Boebert +29 | 15,628 | 93% | 1,000 |
| Montezuma | Boebert +14 | 10,967 | >95% | <600 |
| Pitkin | Frisch +58 | 9,297 | 95% | 500 |
| Gunnison | Frisch +38 | 8,930 | >95% | <500 |
| Archuleta | Boebert +8 | 7,666 | >95% | <400 |
| Las Animas | Boebert +3 | 6,532 | 94% | 400 |
| Alamosa | Frisch +1 | 5,802 | >95% | <300 |
| Moffat | Boebert +59 | 5,337 | >95% | <300 |
| Otero | Boebert +14 | 5,317 | >95% | <300 |
| Rio Grande | Boebert +14 | 4,906 | >95% | <100 |
| Eagle | Frisch +43 | 4,066 | >95% | 150 |
| San Miguel | Frisch +59 | 3,979 | 95% | 250 |
| Huerfano | Frisch +5 | 3,761 | >95% | <100 |
| Ouray | Frisch +27 | 3,471 | >95% | <100 |
| Conejos | Boebert +6 | 3,351 | >95% | <100 |
| Rio Blanco | Boebert +65 | 2,979 | >95% | 150 |
| Saguache | Frisch +15 | 2,676 | >95% | <100 |
| Costilla | Frisch +34 | 1,623 | >95% | <100 |
| Dolores | Boebert +49 | 1,271 | >95% | <100 |
| Mineral | Boebert +13 | 696 | >95% | <100 |
| Hinsdale | Boebert +8 | 513 | >95% | <100 |
| San Juan | Frisch +38 | 496 | >95% | <100 |
I donât care who you vote for, but promoting voting has got to be an American idealâŚ
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GA Runoff: Is this just going to be which base can get more people to vote. Who has the advantage then?
You think if he manages to get elected again that he would ever leave? Heâs dictator for life in that scenario.
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According to the referenced Congressional Republicans, the concern was whether it was legally permissible for the EO to order all Federal agencies to promote voter participation and in particular to select 3rd party organizations to assist. Ostensibly, they prefer that Congress pass a law doing this instead, but of course offer no plans to do so. After reading about it months ago, it did strike me as odd for the POTUS to order DHS, HUD, USDA, and HHS to promote voter participation, for example.
In interest of full disclosure, the January 2022 letter from Reps Budd, Tenney, and Garcia mention that the EO âis nearly identical to a federal election takeover plan crafted by the radical left-leaning group known as Demos.â
I have pasted the link to it below and it seems pretty innocuous, doesnât it? There was even something in there about prison-based gerrymandering that I didnât even know was a thing.
Itâs happened once.
I already got a text from Herschel asking for help. I live in Jeffersonville, Indiana so thatâs a little interesting.
Dude doesnât know where his kids live, you think he gives a shit about where potential donors are located?
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NYT says Mesa county is >95% with the same vote count of 68,210. Most outlets now have Frisch up about 75bp with <5% votes outstanding. If there are 5% left, Boebert needs ~3.4% to close the gap, so she needs two-thirds of remaining votes - more if there are fewer than 5% to be counted.
The two counties with the most outstanding votes are Pueblo (Frisch +10) and Garfield (Frisch +15), but we are likely counting more in-person ballots now, which should lean Boebert. Itâs going to be really close.
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Just because you arenât registered to vote there doesnât mean you canât make campaign contributions. 
If I start getting spam from Georgia the way I was getting spam from PennsylvaniaâŚ
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Frisch up by 62 as of 6:30 EST.
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