United States Congressional & Gubernatorial 2022 elections

Not sure that I’d exactly count this one . . . yes he was VPOTUS, but due to resignation, became a non-elected POTUS . . . so the nom was for a sitting POTUS, not VPOTUS.

Sure, that’s true of LBJ too (well, the sitting POTUS part, not the non-elected part). If we went back further it’s also true of Truman. I just listed every single VPOTUS back to Nixon and whether or not they subsequently sought and obtained their party’s nomination for POTUS.

Circumstances are all over the place. Humphrey is in a unique category too as he did not intend to seek his party’s nomination at first and ultimately was essentially asked to run out of desperation by the party. But he is still a Vice President who went on to win his party’s nomination for POTUS… as they all basically do if they try.

Some were already POTUS before they even had a chance to run. Some were sitting VPOTUS’s when they ran. Some were former VPOTUS’s when they ran. Nixon won his party’s nomination 3 times: once as sitting VPOTUS, once as former VPOTUS, once as sitting POTUS.

I just listed them all. And the only exception to my statement is Dan Quayle, who made a half-assed attempt to run in 2000 and his campaign fizzled extremely quickly.

Also, it’s too early to tell, but there’s a non-trivial chance that Kamala Harris would be POTUS by November 2024.

What’s the probability of a 78 year-old surviving 3 years?

I guess Biden’s now said he’s running in 2024, so Harris won’t be seeking the nomination if he’s alive. But if he dies (whether before, during, or after the convention) she’ll probably be the nominee.

Less likely but possible would be impeachment, resignation, or 25th Amendment removal from office.

If only we had a way to figure that out.

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Well, it wouldn’t pass muster on an actuarial exam, but the most recent Social Security Table online has 56,686 lives at age 78 and 48,423 at age 81.

Divide and you get ~85.4% chance of surviving. So roughly 14.6% chance of dying.

Biden’s a little older than 78 though, but probably healthier than the average 78 year-old and certainly has access to above-average healthcare.

I’m too lazy to account for all that, but I think it suffices to say that there’s a non-trivial chance that Harris would be POTUS by the time the 2024 election rolls around.

Really, really stupid post. Rather than focus on the extremists out there, instead better to focus on the moderates and hope for bipartisanship. There is no “party” that is doing what you are describing, only certain individuals.

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what’s the probability that a morbidly obese orange cheeto dies in the next two years

Not anywhere near high enough…

Every member of Congress had the opportunity to take a stand on the Big Lie and the resulting violent attack on democracy.

In the House, 10 out of 211 Rs voted to impeach Trump for inciting that mob. In the Senate, 7 out of 50 voted to remove him. So 5% of the House Rs and 14% of the Senate Rs are reasonable people who believe in democracy and the rule of law and might be people who could have honest debates on policy.

The remaining 95% of the House Rs and 84% of the Senate Rs are not a “few individuals”.

And, yes, I’m treating “failure to condemn in the strongest way possible, when you are forced to take a stand” as the equivalent of “support”.

(It’s possible that some of them said “I voted against impeachment/removal because I don’t think the Constitution gives us the power to impeach/remove a president who has already left office. But, that doesn’t mean I support this violent attempt to override the voters. I will oppose any attempt by the former president to get my party’s nomination for president again.” If you know of any who did, you can provide the names.)

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Given that Reagan was pretty close to this age and had health complications due to being shot (and forgetting to duck) . . . and made it through a complete second term . . . I’d say pretty darn good unless there’s a bad actor in play.

Add to this that there was a lot done to cover up that Reagan had early stages of Alzheimer’s for much of his second term.

2q75 = 7.2%
3q75 = 11.1%

So the probability that he survives to the NH primary is, maybe, 90-92% or so.

No adjustments for being fat or rich, which may roughly cancel each other out.

https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html

A bunch of GOP Congress Critters did exactly this, including Mitch McConnell.

Well I don’t think he addressed the 2024 nomination, but he said Trump was to blame for the riot.

Reagan was younger when he left office (77) than Biden was when he took office (78).

And had some bigger health issues (that we know about now) than Biden (barring undisclosed health issues). That was more my point; I don’t think this particular age difference would be that material overall in terms of “keeping him alive”.

That’s potentially hugely relevant. You’re comparing apples to oranges.

There’s a big difference between opposing someone in getting the nomination and opposing someone even if they win the nomination.

Disagree. At the time, the general public didn’t know the full extent of Reagan’s health issues; much as the same as today with Biden.

But we now know more about Reagan and what took place. I don’t think this aspect of things has gotten worse just because the current POTUS is of the “other party”. If anything, that level of care has only improved tremendously.

NH just became a tossup with Sununu not seeking the seat.

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Huh???

I’m just saying that we don’t know what we don’t know.

You can’t compare a scenario where we have perfect hindsight to a scenario where we have no hindsight.

That’s like comparing someone who has gone through underwriting and qualified as a Super-Preferred Nonsmoker to someone plucked from the population at random and saying that they have identical mortality.

Do you even actuarial?
:face_with_raised_eyebrow:

:upside_down_face:

I disagree that this is the case here. Sitting POTUS in both cases. What took place with a prior POTUS with health problems (albeit, different ones) is known. Current state of health of current Pres isn’t completely known, but there are considerable similarities.

I agree that Biden can easily kick the bucket due to conditions that are due to being 1/2 decade older than a prior POTUS, but I would also say that current medical practices are also much better than they were 35 years ago.