Given how not smooth the graph is, I assume that it’s at least taking field position into account. And ideally time outs remaining.
I mean if you’re down by 5 and 1st & goal from the 1 yard line with a running clock and 20 seconds left with no time outs, that’s pretty radically different from being down by 5 and 1st & 10 from your own 1 yard line with 20 seconds left and no time outs.
The second is possible. The first is likely.