Trump Tariff Watch

Less manufacturing means less pollution from manufacturing. Tradeoff is favorable to local folks.

Someone is sure to be “Gung Ho!” about that.

Summary

Gung Ho (film) - Wikipedia

The US has shown it is no longer a reliable trading partner so the downside for Canada of forming a closer trading relationship with China is minimal.

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Coincidentally, I keep seeing the Stellantis ads on tv trumpeting their 100 years of operating in Canada. I don’t think they are generating much brand loyalty given the series of cutbacks they have announced in Canada.

Google tells me their top selling cars are all Kia and Hyundai. Also, they have tariffs on imports of 25%. So they protected a couple companies that send a lot of cars to the US. Canada currently has 0 global car makers, so in order to to to a comparative spot with Korea, they need to produce all the cars for Canada as well as find a market for those vehicles elsewhere (and not the US).

The market in Canada would need to consolidate to a subset of what’s available in NA to make production in Canada feasible. I imagine F150s and Silverados could be built somewhere in Ontario but there just aren’t many models that are approaching 100k a year in sales in Canada. Google also tells me an assembly plant in the US builds 250k vehicles on average each year.

There’s probably a myriad of reasons why S Korea are doing well in automobile manufacturing. The point is, having a very large population is not necessary. Another example I forgot to mention is Sweden, with a population of 10.5 million, which has both Volvo and Scania as major vehicle manufacturers for a number of decades.

And we have liftoff for prices in the US due to tariffs.

Pre-April inventories have been run down and losses cannot be absorbed anymore.

Would seem like a no-brainer to remove coffee tariffs.

Needs to be put in the “bad graphs” thread.
I’m not disputing the report, but this chart doesn’t show that.
Matter of fact, it shows that 75% are NOT reporting soaring prices.
74% of Democrats
65% of GOPs
63% of Indies.

Assuming these are all the Americans, what distribution puts the overall average to 75% or above?

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Huh. Something is brewing over this tariff business…
Complaints have been percolating…
something something double soy latte something something…

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Someone spilled the beans.

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75% is for $100 to $249 (kind of agree the graph could be better)

This tracks with Yale Budget Lab:

Don’t know if true, but seems plausible:

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I’d like it to be true. I appreciate ballsy-ness

Looking into it, the official timing that Bessent claims is that he learned of the investigation during the meeting, and asked about it, only to have his counterpart deny prior knowledge. Given how much people involved in this administration lie, I find this alternative explanation plausible.

Trump having a hissy fit and cancelling trade talks with Canada because Ontario ads point out Reagan disliked tariffs.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/trump-trade-negotiations-tariffs-ontario-ad-9.6951469

I don’t see much point in Canada negotiating with Trump

The only thing he sees is a country that is much smaller economically vs USA, so to his mind it should be a supplicant as he has leverage.

And when that doesn’t happen, he will just invent another contorted reason for not negotiating in good faith.

Even when Trump leaves after 3 more years, I don’t see the situation improving (too much damage has been done to the US and far too many inept people are esconced now all around the government) so Canada needs to make pragmatic choices when it comes to decoupling from the US. You just can’t really wait around for things to maybe get better with Trump and his entourage around. Have to think much longer term on this one.

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I think that’s what Carney’s (and a lot of other leaders) are doing right now. He’s just announced a plan to double non-US trade over the next decade and has been chasing trade deals all over the place. Carney announces goal to double Canada’s non-U.S. exports in the next decade | CBC.ca

It’s going to be interesting to see what happens with the tariffs on Chinese EVs. It could be we sacrifice the auto industry for better trade with China. It feels like Trump is hurting the U.S. economy for long term gains, but it seems like he could be doing more harm than good if other countries just bypass US trade longer term rather than dealing with the chaos and unfair tariffs.

Yes, yes it is. Veeeery interesting. Lot of moving parts I think with this, a lot of things could change, and a lot of people with a hand in the pot. I doubt anything can be changed without causing some sort of fallout.
I’d love to see something like Chinese EV’s being built in Canada so we can have somewhere between a $15 EV and a $100000 ice vehicle. But there’s always the grossness of doing business with china, and the US’s reaction. And the car unions.

And that’s certainly true but Canada does have pain points they can exert. And maybe some strong leverage at specific points is enough. e.g. the alcohol thing is already being felt. We have all the natural resource stuff going to the US. And the US consumes a lot of Canadian energy. Throw some heavy export tariffs on energy going to the US, and Americans will be bleating. Not like you can spin up new electrical generators overnight.