I think it’s pretty normal each election cycle for a prisoner or three to attempt running for President or Governor or Congress. They’ve got nothing better to do, so why not?
Of course normally they never make it past the primary unless they are basically running unopposed. (Like a prisoner running as a Democrat in Oklahoma or a Republican in Rhode Island where no non-imprisoned minority party even bothers to run.) Or maybe they run 3rd party. And then they always lose big in the general if they made it past the primary.
So the only unusual thing about that would be actually winning.
Note that it is impossible that the documents case would come up with the current indictment.
The documents case would be a federal matter, while the current indictment is coming from a state court.
If the feds found something indictable…it’s not clear what would happen. The federal Justice Department does have the following long-standing policies:
They avoid doing anything within 90 days of an election which could reasonably be expected to influence that election; and
They don’t believe they have the authority to indict a sitting President
…so I wouldn’t be at all surprised if they declined to issue a federal indictment until thee political future is a bit more clear.
That being said, there’s nothing in the Constitution that preclude someone under indictment or in prison from running for President. Court dates might complicate his fundraising and campaigning schedule, as would being in prison…but he’s unlikely to be charged with anything that would completely eliminate his contact with the world outside a prison’s walls, so…
True, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Justice Department decided to remain hands-off during campaign season, to avoid a greater appearance of a political prosecution.
If Trump were to be indicted on Federal charges, I wouldn’t expect to see the indictment until:
After he drops out from the race, if he drops out
After the final round of primaries in 2024, if he appears to not get the nomination
After the general election otherwise
…and of course, if he wins the election, if there’s an indictment, I imagine he’ll pardon himself as soon as he gets into office, which will bring back the question of whether a President can pardon himself.
(I’d give even odds as to whether a victorious Desantis would pardon Trump.)
6 weeks seems sufficient, but if they really think a longer limit is needed, I’d suggest the date of the first primary (caucus) or January 1 of the calendar year of the election - whichever comes later.
A year and a half before the election is not at all too close to the election.
Can you have a primary/caucus in a non-election year? For some reason I assumed they actually had to be in the same calendar year as the election, but maybe I’m wrong.
I still have a hard time seeing DeSantis winning though. Without Trump’s support it’s impossible, I think, for any Republican to win in 2024. (Unless maybe he dies.) And I’m not sure Trump’s ego would allow him to support anyone else.
That said, it’s looking like the Democratic ticket will be uninspiring, so who knows.
You know, if Trump were smart, he would have pulled a Nixon and resigned, and let his VP give him a blanket pardon. But inciting a mob to lynch your VP. That’s a good strategy too.
