SVB disaster

I heard there was like some bank run going on or something.

\textcolor{red}{\text{Buying opportunity since stock price is low?}}

I haven’t followed this too closely but need to read up, my company does some business with SVB.

Might also be worth watching Credit Suisse, they’ve delayed the annual report, and you can speculate what that may or may not mean.

More detail on Credit Suisse

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Matt Levine’s Money Stuff newsletter had an article about this yesterday

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-03-09/crypto-bank-had-a-boring-collapse

Delaying the annual report is usually not a harbinger of good news. :-1:

:oh_noes:

WHAT DO??? WHAT DO???

Google says it is looking to sell itself.

Some twitter guy is still gung-ho on it, has seven tweets in a row about it. Getting all Kevin Bacon in Animal House.

First one:

1/ More in the VC community need to speak out publicly to quell the panic about

@SVB_Financial

… I believe their CEO when he says they are solvent and not in violation of any banking ratios & goal was to raise & strengthen balance sheet

Translation: Everyone needs to lie about this until I can get my money out.

Here’s the deal, kid: there will be another bank who can do the same as SVB, but NOT go out of business.

A reply to this “don’t panic” panicker:

An explainer on what is going on with Silicon Valley Bank:

  • In 2021 SVB saw a mass influx in deposits, which jumped from $61.76bn at the end of 2019 to $189.20bn at the end of 2021.

  • As deposits grew, SVB could not grow their loan book fast enough to generate the yield they wanted to see on this capital. As a result, they purchased a large amount (over $80bn!) in mortgage backed securities (MBS) with these deposits for their hold-to-maturity (HTM) portfolio.

  • 97% of these MBS were 10+ year duration, with a weighted average yield of 1.56%.

  • The issue is that as the Fed raised interest rates in 2022 and continued to do so through 2023, the value of SVB’s MBS plummeted. This is because investors can now purchase long-duration “risk-free” bonds from the Fed at a 2.5x higher yield.

  • This is not a liquidity issue as long as SVB maintains their deposits, since these securities will pay out more than they cost eventually.

  • However, yesterday afternoon, SVB announced that they had sold $21bn of their Available For Sale (AFS) securities at a $1.8bn loss, and were raising another $2.25bn in equity and debt. This came as a surprise to investors, who were under the impression that SVB had enough liquidity to avoid selling their AFS portfolio.

So, Deposits went up, so invested in MBS (cuz, couldn’t find any ventures to capitalize?) at the wrong time. Interest rates increased, so these MBS prices dropped, though should still be collecting mortgages (unless Z-bonds, remembering my Course 6 and 220 shit). So, as long as people don’t panic and foreclose en masse…

-86% all time , good times

I am still trying to understand how Actuaries are justifying “investing” in any crypto type product.

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I threw $1k at crypto to kind of force me to understand it. And subscribed to some sub-Reddits. Blockchain has some legit uses. I’d guess… I don’t know, 90% of crypto coins are just shams, or scams, or thereabouts.

My $1k ‘investment’ is currently worth $370, and I’m not sure if I got $630 worth of education out of this.

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SVB is closed today by CA regulators

To the moon, that’s how.

My brother went a bit further in. Invested about $10,000

Not a large amount for him, but not peanuts either.

I tried to explain to him many times why investing in crypto was a really bad idea based on my financial and economic understanding, but all I got was a bit of mockery as crypto went up and up.

He avoids the topic now :slight_smile:

He also probably learned his lesson now.

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Hellllloooo, FDIC.

So short the equity and long SVB bonds for
the arbitrage opp, right??? :wink: :money_with_wings:

Given their clientele, I’m curious what % of deposits were above the FDIC insured amount. I’m guessing a substantial portion.

I’m wondering if there is a buying opportunity with stock of smaller banks. Their stocks are tanking today. Many banks would have a problem with a sudden run on the bank, but the situation with SVB seems to be somewhat unique.

I’m not clear on what they do, are they really a bank where I could get a checking account and a debit card? I don’t know much about them, I know my company uses/used them for some lines of credit but we don’t ‘bank’ there. I thought they were more like an IB.

Their wiki indicates private banking to wealthy individuals was a significant venture:

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