SVB disaster

I heard there was like some bank run going on or something.

\textcolor{red}{\text{Buying opportunity since stock price is low?}}

I havenā€™t followed this too closely but need to read up, my company does some business with SVB.

Might also be worth watching Credit Suisse, theyā€™ve delayed the annual report, and you can speculate what that may or may not mean.

More detail on Credit Suisse

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Matt Levineā€™s Money Stuff newsletter had an article about this yesterday

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-03-09/crypto-bank-had-a-boring-collapse

Delaying the annual report is usually not a harbinger of good news. :-1:

:oh_noes:

WHAT DO??? WHAT DO???

Google says it is looking to sell itself.

Some twitter guy is still gung-ho on it, has seven tweets in a row about it. Getting all Kevin Bacon in Animal House.

First one:

1/ More in the VC community need to speak out publicly to quell the panic about

@SVB_Financial

ā€¦ I believe their CEO when he says they are solvent and not in violation of any banking ratios & goal was to raise & strengthen balance sheet

Translation: Everyone needs to lie about this until I can get my money out.

Hereā€™s the deal, kid: there will be another bank who can do the same as SVB, but NOT go out of business.

A reply to this ā€œdonā€™t panicā€ panicker:

An explainer on what is going on with Silicon Valley Bank:

  • In 2021 SVB saw a mass influx in deposits, which jumped from $61.76bn at the end of 2019 to $189.20bn at the end of 2021.

  • As deposits grew, SVB could not grow their loan book fast enough to generate the yield they wanted to see on this capital. As a result, they purchased a large amount (over $80bn!) in mortgage backed securities (MBS) with these deposits for their hold-to-maturity (HTM) portfolio.

  • 97% of these MBS were 10+ year duration, with a weighted average yield of 1.56%.

  • The issue is that as the Fed raised interest rates in 2022 and continued to do so through 2023, the value of SVBā€™s MBS plummeted. This is because investors can now purchase long-duration ā€œrisk-freeā€ bonds from the Fed at a 2.5x higher yield.

  • This is not a liquidity issue as long as SVB maintains their deposits, since these securities will pay out more than they cost eventually.

  • However, yesterday afternoon, SVB announced that they had sold $21bn of their Available For Sale (AFS) securities at a $1.8bn loss, and were raising another $2.25bn in equity and debt. This came as a surprise to investors, who were under the impression that SVB had enough liquidity to avoid selling their AFS portfolio.

So, Deposits went up, so invested in MBS (cuz, couldnā€™t find any ventures to capitalize?) at the wrong time. Interest rates increased, so these MBS prices dropped, though should still be collecting mortgages (unless Z-bonds, remembering my Course 6 and 220 shit). So, as long as people donā€™t panic and foreclose en masseā€¦

-86% all time , good times

I am still trying to understand how Actuaries are justifying ā€œinvestingā€ in any crypto type product.

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I threw $1k at crypto to kind of force me to understand it. And subscribed to some sub-Reddits. Blockchain has some legit uses. Iā€™d guessā€¦ I donā€™t know, 90% of crypto coins are just shams, or scams, or thereabouts.

My $1k ā€˜investmentā€™ is currently worth $370, and Iā€™m not sure if I got $630 worth of education out of this.

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SVB is closed today by CA regulators

To the moon, thatā€™s how.

My brother went a bit further in. Invested about $10,000

Not a large amount for him, but not peanuts either.

I tried to explain to him many times why investing in crypto was a really bad idea based on my financial and economic understanding, but all I got was a bit of mockery as crypto went up and up.

He avoids the topic now :slight_smile:

He also probably learned his lesson now.

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Hellllloooo, FDIC.

So short the equity and long SVB bonds for
the arbitrage opp, right??? :wink: :money_with_wings:

Given their clientele, Iā€™m curious what % of deposits were above the FDIC insured amount. Iā€™m guessing a substantial portion.

Iā€™m wondering if there is a buying opportunity with stock of smaller banks. Their stocks are tanking today. Many banks would have a problem with a sudden run on the bank, but the situation with SVB seems to be somewhat unique.

Iā€™m not clear on what they do, are they really a bank where I could get a checking account and a debit card? I donā€™t know much about them, I know my company uses/used them for some lines of credit but we donā€™t ā€˜bankā€™ there. I thought they were more like an IB.

Their wiki indicates private banking to wealthy individuals was a significant venture:

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