Only as a long-term play (5+ years)
US Equity small cap is simply heading down in the shorter term.
I am a long term investor.
I like how Buffet puts it here:
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there hasnāt been enough time to learn any lessons.
The first bitcoin holders had to hold them for 10+ years to become billionaires.
itās been like 1 year since most of us bought in
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If energy costs remain high (which they seem to be trending to due to Ukraine War), Bitcoin will keep tanking as an āinvestmentā.
The people who bought in early will be fine. The people like you? Not so much.
we shall see. most early holders didnāt hold the coins either.
People were saying tesla was overpriced when they were priced at $35.
People continue to say Tesla is overpriced, 2000% later.
No one can get this right in a speculative market.
Where there are buyers, there are sellers.
https://twitter.com/RollinReisinger/status/1634256725556469777
from the internet. value the source as needed
Will depend on how many depositors had $$$ over the 250k limit.
Compared to 2008, this will be a blip. They are not a large risk now.
Silicon Valley Bank: $161 billion in deposits, $152B uninsured (5.7% insured, YTD filing).
per the tweet i linked. or do you really mean depositers, as in that could all be one depositer with $152,000,250,000 deposited?
We donāt know how many people are in the āover $250kā pile. We only have a number of uninsured $$.
If its a lot, then the contagion risk could have legs.
If its a small number, risk is low.
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Clearly, such a person would have an ill-formed distinction between the definitions of gambling and investing.
I am still trying to understand how Actuaries are justifying the early payoff of their low fixed rate mortgages when this particular banking fiasco clearly demonstrates that interest rate risk is real and potentially pervasive.
I donāt make a distinction between investing and gambling.
Itās all on the risk / return continuum.
I prefer my life to be a little more spicy.
And yes, the best financial strategy is to incur as much debt as possible and default by death, assuming no dependents.
I think one article I read said 93% of deposits are NOT covered by FDIC insurance for SVB.
WRT to 2008, this is the largest bank failure since that crisis.
Possibly interesting I believe SVB received substantial TARP relief in the 2008 crisis. Or maybe just every big bank back then did, TARP was massive.
Live fast, die young, look good in the casket!!! 
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I sure hope they donāt get bailed out.
well I donāt intend to die young, but thatās out of my control.
A lot of the Tesla hype is also linked to QE from Fed.
Way too much cheap money flying around which drove stock valuations sky high.
Now that interest rates are rocketing up, risk is becoming a thing again, and stock valuations will normalise. ARK fund is a case in point (that lady (Cathie Woods) is just totally inept, but she rode the QE wave up, so she manages to convince people that she has investing skills, so they end up investing in her fund). You might as well just transfer your money to her account now for her fees. Thats all you will be getting in return in that investment.
The difference with bitcoin is that there is no real way to value the āassetā with BTC. No company or tanglibles. Just a bunch of exchanges (like FTX and Coinbase) run by a bunch of technologically adept, financially inept weirdos, who have no idea what they are doing.
I do expect bitcoin to survive, just at a much lower āpriceā, primarily because it has always been a way to hide illicit money, as well as buy illicit goods on the side. That will never go away.
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Interesting article highlighting risks that the Federal Reserve is running with rapid increases to interest rates. There was a lot of inertia for the way things had been and the Fed has changed things rapidly with their quick increase in rates. Anyone too leveraged on things mostly staying the same is going to really struggle right now, which is why I still believe a pause is in order. There is just no way to know how much of the inflation problem has already been fixed without at least 6-12 months of observation IMO.
I guess the big question is how did liquidity stress-testing the banks are supposed to do not expose this risk. Any actuarial student moderately into their exams knows all about duration risk.
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Hard to 100% say whether itās fraud, but awfully nice timing for these executives here.
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