Stocks: what goes up must go up exponentially and never come down

World’s biggest welfare queen becomes first trillionaire

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Oh nice. Trump announced the war’s about to end before the weekend again, so line went up again.

I think we’re getting up to around 30 imminent deals over the past few months?

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Between Russia-Ukraine, Israel-Hamas, Iraq and tarriffs/trade, the supposed deals are barely countable but actual deals, not so much.

Not yet. But I would keep reducing exposure to equities towards more defensive assets.

My entire PF surged about 4% today (mostly due to Iran news) so I am further trimming my equity exposure to SK (20%), Japan (15%), and Taiwan (15%).

I am about 15% US equties now so less exposed to a downturn there with the rest being UK/AUS stocks as its mostly miners (don’t see them tanking too much if tech bubble pops).

Should i sell my DRAM and collect my 21%?

I would sell half of it and bank the gains.

Keep going with the other half.

Took the profit on all of it. 2600->3150. Maybe I’ll day trade this to see if i can double up.

Its deals like this one when you know that the market is running out of gas. Nearing the top of the AI Capex spending at this point. They can’t sustain the spending long-term*

*Debt-fueled expansion like this one is pretty close to the end of the road given the money involved. They don’t want to keep using their own cashflow (could cause liquidity issues if the market turns on them) and they don’t want to dilute existing equity holders.

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SpaceX up 19% today

…cash now?

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Sounds like irrational exuberance.

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Its probably time to get off the train. Reminds me a bit of the dot coom boom.

Cash…now?

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Nope. US still has some juice left in the bubble department.

Last time i talked to my dad, i mentioned putting money into a chinese etf. This was a novel idea for him, or really putting money into any non-US investment.

A lot of boomer money will likely diversify out of the US over the next generation. Speaking to my close UK friend, it seems that having a share of US investments was already common for them, so the opposite may not apply.

What about Japanese ETF or other investments? The yen is dirt cheap right now, while the nikkei has seen string returns over the last 2 years.

It’s so interesting that both my father (late 60s) and my boss (early 60s, CFO/CPA) still “have a guy” who does their investments. My boss at least has some idea what he’s invested in, but he doesn’t really know the mix. There is a little bit of gold in there, he thinks. My dad doesn’t even know that much, just that the guy is handling it.

I suppose the excellent market for the past while doesn’t require them to change anything. Still, the lack of control/understanding would bother me to no end.

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I would just not be comfortable being in the dark this way. But most actuaries have sufficient investment expertise to be very involved. Besides it’s fun managing your own money.

My parents were the same way. American Express did their investing. Mom’s retirement funds have high expense ratios. You could create a portfolio for 20basis points or less and yet she currently pays … gets calculator out … 105bps for her misplaced trust in the “guy”

She has gotten 7.2% per year for the last four years.

I talk about money some with my mom, and I like to joke that I have her best interests in heart because it will mean more “burritos” (i.e. Chipotle) down the road for me. And if it means more money for me later, it means more money for her sooner.

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Agree, and a lot of these shops are costing you something like 1% per year. Do a 30Y projection on your assets, and then do it again with 1% lower returns, and get back to me.

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