Its been a bit of a wild ride…
Eta: maybe not so much wild as fast moving.
I find that when I buy things that I don’t want to own long term, then I have a decision to make on when to take a short term gain and face the taxes on it, so what happens is I don’t ever sell that position. This is in my taxable account.
Seems like more recently I can put a chunk of my 401k into more options with Fidelity rather than just the company offerings, so I need to take advantage of that where I can trade more? I am sure there are restrictions there.
I suspect leverage is to blame for the wild swings in SK
Levered ETFs to be exact
Its like being on a Trapeze at this point
Right…your playing a timing game now if you are looking for more gains, along with everyone else holding cards.
I’m not sure on that.
My view is a lot of these memory companies have sold all of their product for the next few years and if there is an AI collapse, pent up consumer demand will keep up demand for their product while AI companies recover.
Have you compared annual consumer demand with the trillion dollar annual capital spend on this?
Sandisk is up 40x. I’d want to understand if they ai demand, even if it’s sustained, justifies the 40x long term.
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Consumer demand would keep their share price higher (and their margins).
Just not at the current level of share price growth.
Share prices are increasing rapidly because of the expectation that AI adoption will lead to significant revenues for AI companies (which means they will continue spending big on capex over 2026 and 2027). Bain & Co have calculated that they need about $2T in revenue from AI in order to sustain current capex spending (in memory and data centers).
I just don’t see that happening in the long-term. There will be an adjustment downwards in 2027.
We are still looking at phenomenal equity growth, just not the geometric growth of the last year (that won’t be repeated in my view).
Current share price is the PV of future earnings. This is based on the current market view of AI growth plus consumer demand. These things you are suggesting are already baked in to the current share price - Sandisk is certainly not worth a perpetuity of their Q1 2026 earnings - there is the expectation of ongoing future investment into data centers on top of what I assume is a stable retail demand. The AI demand is large but very unknown at this time. So how much optimism is in that expectation? Potentially a lot.
AI companies need to keep spending a lot of money. We see Google raising capital through new stock issuances. This is not sustainable. They need to see revenue materialize in order to continue purchasing new hardware.
Companies are not seeing significant cost savings due to AI…at least not yet. This savings is the future source of revenue for the AI companies. Headlines are driving the markets more than reality. This is why you see 5-10% swings in this stuff on a weekly basis. Everyone is trying to calibrate their models based on headlines and that’s crap data compared to actual company financials. When a headline drives down an entire sector 15% in one day, take that to suggest there is emerging skepticism in the upper bound that has already been set.
Does that mean it won’t go higher? Not at all. I just think it suggests that there is a lot more downside risk than upside.
Nasdaq took another beating today.
Lots of volatility due to profit taking.
Asia will probably take another beating tomorrow when the markets open.
Put in $10k into the SpaceX tender via Revolut.
Will probably end up with a lot less (seems very over-subscribed).
Ontario Teachers Pension Plan fund is making a killing on SpaceX.
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I did this yesterday - well, 2500, since that I had some dividends pay out on my taxable account and it was down.
So you’re nicely up today? And based on the last few days, on the way back down again tomorrow?
I think that’s right
Got it. BRB, shorting DRAM, thanks for the tip!
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Good luck!
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Kospi +5% today
Samsung +8%
SK Hynix +5%
The entire asian market reacts to what is happening in Hormuz (largely due to Trump and his inability to negotiate) with pretty extreme volatility.
…cash now?