Maybe not too far off but I’m thinking q3 earnings will be the pivot.
I think tech could just gyrate in a range until then.
Ive been saying something similar for awhile now. AI will make people who know what they’re doing more effective. It will make people who don’t know what they’re doing more dangerous.
Thinking over making an application for SpaceX shares.
I have no doubt they will tank post-IPO as they wont be in the S&P 500, but Musk will keep loading up the company with lots of taxpayer money via the Govt (did the same thing at Tesla really) so they will no doubt inflate upwards after (once they make the S&P 500) until the competition catches up (which will take years. Blue Origin and Bezos are years behind him).
There’s an argument that SpaceX, OpenAI, and Antrhopic IPOs all theoretically coming in short order will effectively stall the rest of the market because capital will have to be shifted there. The number of fund managers that would be fired if they didn’t move capital there is all of them.
The S&P voted this week not to fast-track inclusion of these IPOs in indexes. which will mean that the IPOs will need to wait at least a year before being added to their indexes. This will make some people unhappy, but it should avoid the situation that you’re talking about.
I’m wondering if this is linked…
Or is it just they got too far ahead of where they should be and this is just a normal market pullback.
Really, I vote for that. But ask again in a couple months, we’ll know for sure.
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This summarises where we are so far.
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I suspect electricity supply will be a massive stumbling block.
I wonder if North American natural gas is something to target, though i hate to do so over carbon emissions. The US is going all in on NG exports. Several AI centers seem to be using onsite NG turbines to power them which sucks up a lot of NG. Alberta may get their east coast pipeline for natural gas exports. I suspect the rate of growth in demand for natural gas is outstripping growth in supply and that could lead to spikes in home heating costs in North America.
Very likely to be the case because Europe currently has low gas storage levels, and will need to replenish reserves for the coming winter. That extra demand will drive up prices this year when it combines with the Hormuz shortages (in gas deliveries).
I can’t help adding this:
The share of US data centers in total peak summer power demand is projected to rise from 4.1% in 2025 to 5.3% in 2026 and 8.5% the following year, according to Goldman Sachs Research.
If U.S. markets decline too far off the open, there will be a miraculous news bulletin about a potential cease-fire and a deal within a couple of days to end hostilities with Iran and we’ll be green by noon.
It, like the 19 times before, will be a complete lie, but the market will fall for it yet again.
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Absolute bloodbath today in Asia.
Volatility is absurd.
I guess the argument for why U.S. markets are up today are some combination of the following:
- Asia was reacting to the U.S. being down on Friday, and the weekend didn’t give enough time to process and sort things out
- Europe down? That just follows Asia, but with a dose of evaluation.
- Problems that may have been mentioned Friday that contributed to the decline? All fixed.
- There’s a new, new, new, … … …, new new, new ceasefire that the U.S., Israel and Iran have agreed to, and this one will finally hold.
What’s missing: some giant circle-jerk announcement where [s]Meta[/s] Facebook says it’s investing $500 billion in Anthropic, Anthropic says it’s investing $500 billion in Nvidia, Nvidia says it’s investing $500 billion in OpenAI, OpenAI says it’s investing $500 billion in Microsoft, etc. etc. etc. and everyone reads it as “wow, that’s like $20 trillion of investment, this is going to double or triple (or more!) GDP in the next year” and it’s nothing more than if someone pulled out $100, it was passed around everyone on GoA, and eventually returned back to the first person who pocketed their $100.
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I’m a bit baffled today… seeing your post, i figured my DRAM units would fall a bunch more given their Asian focus. Instead, I’m up 6% today.
Is the Asian bloodbath follow-on from the US tech plunge Friday? And the US market is going up today is dragging up DRAM as people go bargain hunting and perhaps the latest Iran-US thing?
DRAM seems to be approx. 40% Asia 60% US
So its possible US constituents are driving it up now if people are buying the dip.
Isn’t it -15% from Friday and +6% today, so still down 9%? Dead cats bounce. That 9% is where KOSPI ended. The bargain hunters should have been out late Friday.
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